By Sam Francis
Political reporter, BBC News
Boris Johnson, the antheral ousted arsenic UK premier curate by his ain authorities conscionable 3 months ago, has emerged arsenic an aboriginal front-runner to beryllium the adjacent premier minister.
His replacement Liz Truss crashed and burned aft 45 days successful the job, announcing her resignation aft being forced to ditch astir of her argumentation programme aft it spooked the fiscal markets.
A 2nd Johnson premiership would beryllium an bonzer turnaround adjacent for a person who has made miraculous comebacks before.
The past clip anyone returned to the bureau of premier curate aft losing the enactment of their enactment was 140 years agone erstwhile William Gladstone returned to pb the Liberals, though immoderate enactment leaders person had 2 stints arsenic premier minister, including Sir Winston Churchill and Harold Wilson.
The last months of Mr Johnson's clip successful bureau were dogged by a bid of scandals and accusations helium had breached ministerial rules by not telling the information astir Covid lockdown-busting parties successful Downing Street. He was yet ejected from bureau aft a wide revolt by authorities ministers.
But helium remains nether probe by the Parliamentary Standards Committee, which could, successful theory, pb to him being suspended from Parliament, oregon adjacent being kicked retired arsenic an MP.
There is simply a precise existent imaginable of the committee holding repeated grounds sessions connected whether Mr Jonson misled parliament successful the coming weeks, and whitethorn adjacent telephone connected Mr Johnson to respond successful person.
Mr Johnson's supporters person dismissed the committee's probe arsenic a "witch hunt".
Will Boris Johnson return?
Mr Johnson has yet to officially denote helium volition stand. The lone contender to interruption screen truthful acold is furniture curate Penny Mordaunt who came 3rd successful the past enactment election.
Mr Johnson has already returned to London from a Caribbean holiday. A adjacent ally, Sir James Duddridge, has told the media Mr Johnson is "up for" a enactment bid.
Sir James, who has publically endorsed Mr Johnson, said the erstwhile premier curate told him "we are going to bash this".
In his final quality astatine Prime Minister's Questions successful July this year, Mr Johnson made it wide that helium did not deliberation helium had reasonably treated and was already reasoning of making a comeback.
He signed disconnected with "hasta la vista, baby". He could lone person dropped a heavier hint that helium was not finished yet if helium had utilized different catchphrase from the Terminator films: "I'll beryllium back."
Mr Johnson won the 2019 wide predetermination - and nether the British constitution the enactment successful powerfulness tin alteration person without different election.
Ms Truss was elected by Conservative Party members, who whitethorn get the last accidental successful this latest contest, if 2 contenders stay aft MPs person voted.
One of his astir loyal supporters, Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg has launched a societal media run to get him backmost successful Downing Street, and dozens of Conservative MPs person publically backed him.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, seen arsenic an influential unit successful the Conservative party, told the BBC helium was "leaning towards" supporting Mr Johnson.
Party rules for the enactment contention mean hopefuls request the backing of astatine slightest 100 Tory MPs by Monday day to enactment successful the race.
Johnson's grounds fact-checked
On the look of it, this is nary tiny task for a antheral who had 148 of his colleagues ballot against him successful a assurance ballot successful June - followed by astir 60 ministerial resignations 1 period later.
The deluge of resignations followed revelations that Mr Johnson had ignored accusations of intersexual misconduct against Chris Pincher earlier appointing him lawman main whip.
On 5 July, 2 elder furniture secretaries resigned wrong minutes of each different - including past chancellor Rishi Sunak, who near claiming Mr Johnson was not competent oregon serious.
Mr Johnson held connected for 2 much days earlier announcing helium agreed to basal down.
But earlier the resignations unit had been gathering connected Mr Johnson for disapproval implicit his handling of parties that took spot successful Downing Street during Covid lockdowns.
Mr Johnson was 1 of 83 radical fined by constabulary for a drawstring of amerciable parties - including a day enactment for Mr Johnson.
Questions of integrity and idiosyncratic behaviour brought down Mr Johnson. Could MPs who recovered him unsupportable six weeks agone find him acceptable now?
What the bookies say
No elaborate sentiment polling has been done of Conservative Party members since Ms Truss resigned.
According to betting website Oddschecker, Rishi Sunak is the favourite to go the adjacent premier minister. Mr Sunak has likelihood of 8/13 to instrumentality implicit from Liz Truss portion Mr Johnson is 2/1 with Ms Morduant is 35/2.
Tory MP Sir Roger Gale has said helium volition resign the enactment whip if Mr Johnson is voted backmost successful arsenic premier minister.
Sir Roger, a predominant professional of Mr Johnson, suggested to Times Radio different colleagues were threatening to bash the same.
Foreign Office Minister Jesse Norman, a erstwhile person of Mr Johnson, said "choosing Boris present would beryllium - and I accidental this advisedly - an perfectly catastrophic decision".
Four times Johnson has bounced back
- In 1987, Boris Johnson was fired by The Times for falsifying a punctuation - but was hired the pursuing twelvemonth by The Daily Telegraph, arsenic the paper's Brussels correspondent
- In 2004, helium was fired arsenic the Conservatives' shadiness arts curate for lying astir an matter - but was backmost connected the beforehand seat a twelvemonth later
- In 2016, helium pulled retired of his archetypal bid to beryllium Conservative person and premier curate aft his adjacent person Michael Gove launched a rival bid - but helium made a astonishment comeback arsenic overseas caput nether eventual victor Theresa May
- In 2018, helium discontinue Mrs May's furniture successful protestation astatine her Brexit deal, lone to instrumentality arsenic person of the enactment the pursuing year, going connected to triumph a immense bulk astatine a wide election
Opposition parties person besides been speedy to condemn suggestions Mr Johnson mightiness marque a comeback.
Labour person Sir Keir Starmer said the erstwhile premier curate was "unfit for office". Scotland's Frist Minister Nicola Sturgeon called a Mr Johnson instrumentality a "ludicrous suggestion".
He was described arsenic "Britain's Berlusconi" by the Liberal Democrats who are attempting to artifact Mr Johnson becoming premier curate done a question successful parliament.
Mr Johnson has kept a amazingly debased illustration since leaving office. He has spoken sparingly successful the House of Commons and spent the past fewer weeks doing a speaking circuit of the US earlier heading connected holiday.
But arsenic Mr Johnson's biographer Andrew Gimson points out helium is not the benignant of idiosyncratic to "live a beingness of blameless obscurity".
Johnson 'has the edge'
If lone a azygous campaigner emerges the contention volition beryllium implicit connected Monday - if not the caller person volition beryllium chosen by a ballot from enactment rank connected Friday 28 October.
Polls taken successful the last days of Liz Truss' premiership person consistently shown Mr Johnson arsenic the astir fashionable successor.
Patrick English, Associate Director of polling institution YouGov, said the Conservative enactment are calling retired for "someone who tin supply unity and propulsion the enactment backmost unneurotic and vie again (Labour leader) Keir Starmer.
"If you inquire the members who that could beryllium - it is Boris Johnson," Mr English said.
"If Mr Johnson goes to the last two, he's got the edge."