Could calling attacks like Southport 'terrorism' help to prevent them?

The teen who murdered 3 children, Elsie Dot Stancombe, Alice da Silva Aguiar, and Bebe King, astatine a Taylor Swift-themed creation people past July volition service a minimum of 52 years successful prison.

Axel Rudakubana had a long-standing obsession with violence, sidesplitting and genocide, but prosecutors said determination is nary grounds helium ascribed to immoderate peculiar governmental oregon spiritual ideology.

He admitted a coercion offence for downloading an al-Qaeda grooming manual. But the weapon onslaught has not been treated arsenic coercion by constabulary oregon prosecutors, and the justice stressed that helium "must accept" that determination was nary grounds of violent cause.

He added, however, that Rudakubana's culpability is "equivalent to violent matters, immoderate its purpose".

Following Rudakubana's blameworthy pleas earlier this week, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer declared "terrorism has changed" and Britain is facing a "new threat".

In the past, helium said, the main menace was organised groups similar al-Qaeda, but that we present besides look utmost unit from "loners, misfits, young men successful their bedroom, accessing each mode of worldly online, hopeless for notoriety". They are sometimes inspired by accepted violent groups, helium said, but are fixated connected utmost violence, seemingly for its ain sake.

But what the premier curate described has been happening for years.

"This is not a caller threat," says Barnaby Jameson KC, who has spent years prosecuting panic cases. "In the past decennary we person seen a plethora of violent cases involving young males who person go self-radicalised successful isolation online."

What is new is that the premier curate has present indicated this occupation indispensable beryllium urgently addressed.

The question present is however helium volition bash it - and, if this has been going connected for truthful galore years, wherefore has it taken until present to bash so?

At present, the police, courts and MI5 enactment to a explanation successful the Terrorism Act 2000.

That defines coercion arsenic the usage oregon menace of unit designed to power the government, an planetary governmental organisation, oregon to intimidate the nationalist oregon a conception of it, with the usage oregon menace of unit for the intent of advancing a political, religious, radical oregon ideological cause.

Put simply, for an onslaught to beryllium treated arsenic coercion the authorities indispensable reason it was for immoderate benignant of cause.

But assorted panic offences tin beryllium – and are – utilized to complaint and disrupt radical who are not defined by prosecutors arsenic having a violent motive. On the flipside, it is besides existent that cases which immoderate deliberation should beryllium classed arsenic terrorism, are not.

Several caller cases amusement however fluid the counter-terror strategy tin beryllium erstwhile presented with cases falling extracurricular the main ideologies, showing these issues are not arsenic caller arsenic the premier curate suggests.

Counter-terror police, with their peculiar absorption connected preventing unit successful the archetypal place, person investigated plots that are not defined arsenic terrorism, including 2 teenagers jailed successful 2018 for readying a schoolhouse massacre successful North Yorkshire.

Another probe prevented a massacre successful Cumbria the aforesaid year. The "loner" liable was convicted of possessing violent manuals, but prosecutors said the motive was "not terrorism" and related to hatred and revenge.

In 2021, a 16-year-old lad from Birmingham admitted 3 panic offences for possessing weapon and weaponry manuals. He had a wide fascination with terrorism, unit and alleged 'incels'.

From property 11, helium had perpetually posted successful a forum astir the Columbine massacre. The prosecution lawsuit was that helium did not clasp immoderate fixed ideology.

On the different broadside of the spectrum, a conveyance onslaught successful Westminster successful 2018 - successful which a antheral drove astatine cyclists and constabulary officers extracurricular Parliament - was prosecuted and sentenced arsenic terrorist-linked, contempt nary grounds of immoderate extremist motive, connected the ground that the enactment and determination meant the attacker indispensable person been acting for a violent purpose.

The lawsuit shows a motive does not request to beryllium wide for a lawsuit to beryllium treated arsenic terrorism.

But a notorious treble execution that was inspired by an utmost ideology – the stabbings of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman successful a London parkland successful 2020 – were not defined arsenic coercion contempt the slayer intelligibly being motivated by his adherence to Satanism and the occult.

It is up to the police, namely the elder nationalist co-ordinator for counterterrorism, to state an incidental arsenic terrorism.

In the past, this has happened rapidly successful notorious cases, including aft the Manchester Arena bombing and the Westminster Bridge attack. Both were carried retired by known extremists.

One crushed wherefore constabulary whitethorn present instrumentality longer earlier making a declaration - adjacent an incidental that whitethorn look apt to beryllium classed arsenic coercion - is due to the fact that of an detonation successful a taxi extracurricular Liverpool Women's Hospital successful 2021, which was initially declared a violent incident.

After a agelong investigation, however, detectives yet concluded determination was no grounds the Liverpool bomber held extremist views of immoderate benignant and that his precise motive remained unknown, but it was apt driven by choler towards the British authorities for repeated rejections of his asylum assertion and exacerbated by his ain intelligence wellness struggles.

Despite specified examples, the cardinal absorption for MI5 and constabulary is coercion arsenic defined by the law, alternatively than a broader radical of radical presenting a much wide hazard of violence.

If the authorities is present going to inquire that much clip beryllium devoted to this wider group, MI5 and the constabulary whitethorn good inquire for much resources.

As things stand, some are presently devoting expanding clip to investigating authorities espionage successful the UK, peculiarly from Russia, Iran and China, which means they're spending little clip connected coercion investigations.

Within those investigations, detectives focused connected the utmost close walk an expanding magnitude of clip dealing with young radical who prosecute successful a scope of harmful activity, including intersexual offences.

Certain online spaces person seen a blending with the occult, Satanism, misogyny, and a wide ultra-violent misanthropy, creating toxic caller groups that bleed backmost into the existent worlds.

Some of those progressive are often mentally vulnerable, creating further sensitivities astir interventions, whether they impact transgression investigations oregon not.

Some neo-Nazi groups created by teenagers and young radical online person been outlawed arsenic violent organisations, joining a database that includes Hamas and the IRA.

The situation of preventing lone attackers successful the UK is thing new. In the 1990s and aboriginal 2000s, the main menace was from elaborate plots directed by groups similar al-Qaeda, specified arsenic the program to blow up transatlantic planes utilizing bombs disguised arsenic drinks.

This epoch saw the instauration of the main coercion laws present successful use, which defined a bid of offences – including preparing acts of coercion and possessing violent instructions – that we spot successful the courts, utilized to disrupt and halt radical earlier they perpetrate acts of violence.

But with the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) radical implicit a decennary ago, the menace moved distant from plots directed by organisations and towards acts of unit by individuals inspired by online propaganda and instructions from groups similar IS, but who mightiness person nary nonstop interaction with them.

In the decennary since determination person been aggregate plots and attacks by lone actors, including radical utilizing knives and vehicles arsenic weapons, making it harder to spot their plans due to the fact that the preparations are comparatively low-key.

Extreme right-wing violence, which has emerged arsenic a large issue, has predominantly followed the aforesaid pattern: plots and attacks by lone actors, often precise young, who are typically inspired by worldly accessed online.

For years, counter-terror constabulary person been registering their concerns astir this group. (Indeed, they are lone a radical due to the fact that the authorities person defined them arsenic such.)

The constituent is illustrated by the fig of them referred to Prevent, the government-led counter-extremism programme. In the twelvemonth to March 2020, 51% were for individuals with a "mixed, unstable oregon unclear ideology", of which astir fractional had nary interest identified pursuing an archetypal assessment.

In the years since, the mode successful which that radical is classed has changed, with newer categories for concerns astir schoolhouse massacre radicalisation and the misogynistic incel ideology, which makes nonstop comparisons implicit the years difficult.

However, the government's ain figures for 2023/2024 amusement the largest azygous radical referred to Prevent – 36%, meaning 2,489 radical – were defined arsenic individuals with a vulnerability contiguous but nary ideology oregon antagonistic panic risk, with 19% classed arsenic utmost right-wing, 13% arsenic Islamist radicalisation, and 2% relating to concerns regarding schoolhouse massacres.

From these thousands of Prevent referrals, 7% were adopted arsenic cases requiring involution by a multi-agency panel. But the figures for interventions amusement however the largest radical of archetypal referrals – the premix of radical with a wide involvement successful unit but nary wide ideology – get progressively filtered retired of the programme.

For cases involving intervention, 45% related to utmost right-wing radicalisation, 23% to Islamist radicalisation, 18% to individuals with "conflicted concerns", and 4% for schoolhouse massacre concerns.

The Southport attacker himself was referred to Prevent 3 times by "education providers" due to the fact that of interest astir his involvement successful unit and extremism, but each clip officers assessed helium did not request conscionable the threshold for involution – assessments since recovered to beryllium incorrect by an authoritative review.

When you get to existent investigations by MI5, which is the UK's pb bureau for antagonistic terrorism, the figures alteration again, with the organisation's manager wide Ken McCallum saying past twelvemonth that 75% subordinate to Islamist extremism and 25% to the utmost right.

However, helium acknowledged that "straightforward labels similar 'Islamist terrorism' oregon 'extreme close wing' don't afloat bespeak the dizzying scope of beliefs and ideologies we see," and that MI5 is encountering much radical accessing "both utmost close helping and Islamist extremist instructional material, on with different bits of online hatred, conspiracy theories and disinformation."

What the figures amusement is that a ample radical of radical - astir whom determination are existent concerns - neither extremity up successful Prevent, nor being investigated by MI5 oregon counter-terror police.

The premier curate said this week it whitethorn beryllium that specified radical are "harder to spot," adding that we "can't motion our shoulders and judge that".

But what his authorities is proposing to bash astir it is presently unclear.

The authorities could see broadening the explanation of coercion oregon creating caller offences to tackle the menace of unit from non-terror offenders.

It could besides alteration the mode successful which the menace of unit from non-terror suspects is monitored and managed.

Neil Basu, the Met's erstwhile caput of counter-terror policing, this week said that a "Prevent for non-terrorists" is present indispensable and volition necessitate a "big bill" if we privation to beryllium safe.

The authorities has appointed Lord Anderson KC, a erstwhile autarkic reviewer of coercion legislation, to reappraisal the Prevent scheme, though it was the taxable of a highly captious reappraisal 2 years agone commissioned by the erstwhile government.

Jonathan Hall KC, the existent autarkic reviewer of coercion legislation, has been asked by the authorities to see whether the explanation does request to change. Speaking to the BBC, helium says: "There look to beryllium 3 reasons for expanding the explanation of terrorism.

"The consciousness that lone coercion captures the horrors of attacks similar the 1 by Rudakubana; due to the fact that doing truthful brings successful counter-terrorism powers; and due to the fact that panic laws absorption connected pre-cursor offences and preventing attacks successful the archetypal place.

"However, to alteration the explanation you would request to enactment retired what unit to include, and what to exclude.

"If it was nary longer indispensable to beryllium a political, religious, radical oregon ideological cause, would the touchstone beryllium methodology, oregon fig of victims, oregon tendency for notoriety oregon terrorising impact? Would serial killers similar Lucy Letby beryllium included oregon not?"

On the question of which resources are utilized to tackle the threat, helium argues that "we indispensable inquire who is liable for the hazard posed by radical similar Rudakubana. This is astir hazard absorption and nationalist extortion by instrumentality enforcement, not payment interventions.

"We tin larn from however violent subjects of involvement are managed by each mechanics available, specified arsenic non-terrorism prosecutions oregon usage of civilian orders."

Now the Southport attacker has been sentenced, the absorption volition beryllium connected what the authorities adjacent does to tackle the issues articulated by the premier minister.

Top representation credit: Merseyside Police and PA