Could Donald Trump be arrested tomorrow?

Donald Trump claims helium volition beryllium arrested connected Tuesday connected charges stemming from an probe into a $130,000 outgo to porn prima Stormy Daniels successful 2016.

If helium is, helium would beryllium the archetypal erstwhile president to look transgression charges.

Here are immoderate cardinal questions connected the issues astatine play successful this case.

In 2016, big movie prima Stormy Daniels contacted media outlets offering to merchantability her relationship of what she said was an adulterous matter she had with Donald Trump successful 2006.

Mr Trump's squad got upwind of this, and his lawyer Michael Cohen paid $130,000 to Ms Daniels to support quiet.

This is not illegal. However, erstwhile Mr Trump reimbursed Mr Cohen, the grounds for the outgo says it was for ineligible fees. Prosecutors accidental this amounts to Mr Trump falsifying concern records, which is simply a misdemeanour - a transgression offence - successful New York.

Prosecutors could besides perchance allege that this breaks predetermination law, due to the fact that his effort to fell his payments to Ms Daniels were motivated by not wanting voters to cognize helium had an matter with her. Covering up a transgression by falsifying records would beryllium a felony, which is simply a much superior charge.

Even advocates for prosecution admit that either way, this is by nary means a clear-cut case. There is small precedent for specified a prosecution, and past attempts to complaint politicians with crossing the enactment betwixt run concern and idiosyncratic spending person ended successful failure.

"It's going to beryllium tough," says Catherine Christian, a erstwhile fiscal authoritative for the New York City territory attorney.

The determination connected whether to record charges rests with New York City District Attorney Alvin Bragg. He acceptable up the expansive assemblage to analyse whether determination was capable grounds to prosecute a prosecution, and helium is the lone 1 who knows if - oregon erstwhile - an indictment volition beryllium announced.

Last week, Mr Trump lawyers said that the erstwhile president was offered a accidental to look earlier the expansive jury, which is considered a motion that the probe is adjacent to finishing.

The erstwhile president's lawyers person downplayed suggestions that they oregon Mr Trump person immoderate beforehand announcement of an impending indictment, saying Mr Trump's remark astir it being Tuesday were based connected media reports.

However determination are different signs that the expansive assemblage is wrapping up. Both Michael Cohen and his erstwhile ineligible advisor Robert Costello - present a crisp professional - are expected to springiness grounds connected Monday.

Mr Costello would beryllium presented by Mr Trump's defence squad successful an effort to discredit Mr Cohen's testimony.

If helium is charged, Mr Trump's lawyers person indicated that the erstwhile president's apprehension would travel modular procedure.

That means helium would question from his location astatine Mar-a-Lago successful Florida to marque an quality astatine the New York City courthouse, implicit with a ceremonial booking, fingerprints and mug shots.

Given the historical quality of specified a move, and the information concerns involved, the mode this would unfold is uncertain - and would apt beryllium the taxable of dialog betwixt the territory attorney's bureau and Mr Trump's team.

Once the lawsuit is booked and a justice is selected, different details volition autumn into place, specified arsenic the timing of the proceedings and imaginable question restrictions and bail requirements for the defendant.

A condemnation connected a misdemeanour would effect successful a fine. If Mr Trump were convicted connected the felony charge, helium would look a maximum condemnation of 4 years successful prison, though immoderate ineligible experts foretell a good is much probable, and that immoderate clip down bars is highly unlikely.

After suggesting successful a societal media station that helium would beryllium indicted connected Tuesday, Mr Trump made repeated calls for wide protests from his supporters: "WE JUST CAN'T ALLOW THIS ANYMORE. THEY'RE KILLING OUR NATION AS WE SIT BACK & WATCH."

His connection echoes the aggravated rhetoric helium employed anterior to the onslaught connected the US Capitol successful 2021 and has raised concerns astir the imaginable for violence.

Mr Bragg is successful adjacent interaction with New York constabulary and courthouse security, according to a missive to his section that was leaked to the property connected Sunday.

"We bash not tolerate attempts to intimidate our bureau oregon endanger the regularisation of instrumentality successful New York," helium wrote.

"Our instrumentality enforcement partners volition guarantee that immoderate circumstantial oregon credible threats against the bureau volition beryllium afloat investigated and that the due safeguards are successful place."

However astatine the moment, determination has been small grounds truthful acold of the benignant of organised wide protests that led to the 6 January attack.

An indictment oregon adjacent a transgression condemnation would not forestall Mr Trump from continuing his statesmanlike run if helium truthful chooses - and helium has fixed each denotation that helium volition support pushing up careless of what happens.

In fact, determination is thing successful US instrumentality that prevents a campaigner who is recovered blameworthy of a transgression from campaigning for, and serving as, president - adjacent from prison.

Mr Trump's apprehension would surely complicate his statesmanlike campaign, however.

While it mightiness origin immoderate Republican voters to rally astir their embattled champion, it could beryllium a important distraction for a campaigner connected the run trail, trying to stump for votes and enactment successful debates.

It would besides deepen and enflame already crisp divides wrong the American governmental system.

Conservatives judge the erstwhile president is being held to a antithetic modular of justice, portion liberals presumption this arsenic an contented of holding law-breakers - adjacent those successful the highest positions of powerfulness - accountable.