Could Russia really play nuclear roulette in Ukraine?

It's the question we've been asking ever since President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale Russian penetration of Ukraine. In this war, would the Kremlin spell nuclear?

President Joe Biden isn't ruling it out.

"I interest astir Putin utilizing tactical atomic weapons," the US president said this week. He believes the information is "real".

I don't cognize whether President Biden reads the Russian mag Profile. If helium does, you tin recognize wherefore he's worried.

Last week, Profile published an nonfiction by salient Russian overseas and defence argumentation adept Sergei Karaganov. The hawkish Mr Karaganov is honorary president of the Presidium of the Council connected Foreign and Defence Policy. In short, he's well-connected to those successful powerfulness here.

His statement goes similar this. In bid to "break the West's will", Russia "will person to marque atomic deterrence a convincing statement again by lowering the threshold for the usage of atomic weapons".

"The force indispensable cognize that we are acceptable to present a pre-emptive onslaught successful retaliation for each of its existent and past acts of aggression successful bid to forestall a descent into planetary thermonuclear war.

"But what if they bash not backmost down? In this case, we volition person to deed a clump of targets successful a fig of countries successful bid to bring those who person mislaid their caput to reason."

Since past year, we've grown utilized to atomic sabre-rattling from Moscow.

But arguing the pluses of a pre-emptive atomic onslaught connected the West? That's a full caller level.

Clearly, not everyone successful Russia is connected committee with specified an idea.

Today's variation of the concern regular Kommersant features an nonfiction entitled "Nuclear War is simply a atrocious mode of resolving problems".

Understatement of each time, maybe. But what's fascinating astir this portion it that it suggests the statement successful Russia astir erstwhile oregon whether to usage atomic weapons successful the warfare successful Ukraine has burst into the nationalist domain. And the hawks don't person it each their way.

Penned by different radical of Moscow-based overseas and defence argumentation experts, the Kommersant nonfiction explains wherefore they judge Sergei Karaganov has got it wrong. Dangerously wrong.

"The thought that the usage of atomic weapons tin halt escalation and resoluteness strategical problems that accepted subject means person failed to is highly dubious and, astir likely, mistaken," constitute Alexei Arbatov, Konstantin Bogdanov and Dmitry Stefanovich from the Centre for International Security - portion of a deliberation vessel wrong the Russian Academy of Science.

"In modern history, determination are galore examples of subject operations starring to unforeseen consequences. But these were without atomic weapons being used. A atomic onslaught would rise the struggle to a full caller level of unpredictability and rise the stakes of confrontation galore times over.

"The radioactive ruins that playing 'nuclear roulette' would astir apt pb to are the worst instauration for a agleam future. Fans of sensationalist ideas and unsafe gambling would beryllium champion to retrieve that."

Which brings america to different question we've been asking since the commencement of Russia's warfare successful Ukraine: what connected Earth is going on?

It's imaginable that Mr Karaganov's connection for a pre-emptive atomic onslaught was truthful shocking that different Russian academics felt they conscionable couldn't enactment silent.

If so, it shows that though the Russian media scenery is present heavy controlled by the state, adjacent wrong existent confines, determination is inactive country connected immoderate platforms for constricted statement and treatment connected definite topics. Especially specified important topics arsenic atomic war.

Or it whitethorn beryllium that this full statement is designed to drawback the West's attention, to marque President Putin look similar bully bull to Mr Karaganov's atrocious cop.

After all, the Kremlin person himself hasn't called for a pre-emptive atomic onslaught connected the West. And truthful - the statement goes - amended beryllium down and marque bid with him, earlier hardliner Karaganovites triumph the time and property the atomic button.

One thing's clear: with anti-Western rhetoric successful Russia rising, and with the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive underway, the atomic question isn't going away.