Covid: How do UK pandemic death rates compare?

The UK had 1 of the worst increases successful decease rates of large European economies during the Covid pandemic, BBC investigation has found.

Death rates successful the UK were much than 5% higher connected mean each twelvemonth of the pandemic than successful the years conscionable earlier it, mostly driven by a immense decease toll successful the archetypal year.

That was supra the summation seen successful France, Spain oregon Germany, but beneath Italy and importantly little than the US.

Back successful April and May 2020, the UK was seeing 1 of the worst waves of Covid deaths successful the world.

But Prof Sir Chris Whitty, England's main aesculapian officer, warned against planetary comparisons of Covid deaths excessively aboriginal successful the pandemic.

Instead, helium recommended looking astatine deaths for immoderate reason, since they bash not beryllium connected what a state calls a Covid death.

And helium said analyses should instrumentality relationship of the property illustration of each country, which tin explicate a batch of differences successful decease rates.

We person built a database of those figures, collecting information for the past 8 years from a scope of European countries, arsenic good arsenic the US and New Zealand.

Now the UK's long-awaited Covid enquiry is nether mode and Sir Chris is astir to springiness grounds for the archetypal time.

And arsenic the World Health Organization has declared an extremity to the planetary wellness emergency, we person looked backmost astatine 3 years of pandemic deaths, starting successful March 2020.

We compared countries by measuring however overmuch their decease rates roseate from those seen successful the 5 years earlier the pandemic.

Over the 3 years to February 2023, the UK's decease rates went up by much than 5%, which is much than France, Germany and Spain (all up betwixt 3% and 4.5%), but by little than Italy's (up much than 6%).

The US and Eastern European countries similar Poland were adjacent harder hit, with decease rates much than 10% supra their pre-pandemic levels implicit the 3 years to February 2023.

In contrast, decease rates fell successful countries similar Sweden and Norway and besides New Zealand, who contained the microorganism successfully earlier its vaccination programme took off.

The year-by-year figures archer antithetic stories for each country.

For the UK, they constituent to aboriginal losses followed by important occurrence successful 2022.

The UK was 1 of the worst-hit countries successful the archetypal twelvemonth of the pandemic, with decease rates moving 15% supra those earlier it started.

The operation of a unspeakable archetypal question and the accelerated dispersed of the alpha (or Kent) variant conscionable arsenic the vaccine rollout was getting going contributed to a immense decease toll.

Many eastbound European countries similar Poland avoided the outpouring 2020 question but overtook the UK successful numbers of deaths successful the wintertime of 2020-21.

The US continued to person steadily expanding decease rates during the summertime of 2020 and by the extremity of the year, it passed the UK's total.

Death rates fell successful galore European nations successful the 2nd twelvemonth of the pandemic arsenic vaccine programmes got nether way.

The UK's vaccine rollout is regarded arsenic a "global exemplar", says Prof Devi Sridhar of University of Edinburgh.

That is not conscionable fig of doses, it was besides getting them to the radical astir astatine risk.

And the UK looked amended than immoderate large European system barroom Spain successful that 2nd twelvemonth - with decease rates beneath humanities averages.

In the 3rd year, decease rates roseate successful galore countries arsenic they opened up again.

Some of the largest rebounds we recovered were successful countries similar Germany, New Zealand and Norway, who had fared amended successful the archetypal 2 years of the pandemic (and good overall).

Norway had acold less deaths than Sweden successful the archetypal twelvemonth of the pandemic but implicit the 3 years the 2 countries look much similar.

It is hard to work consecutive crossed from Scandinavian countries to the UK, cautions Prof Sridhar, arguing "we'd ne'er look similar either Sweden oregon Norway", and describing them arsenic "healthier, wealthier and much equal" countries that are precise antithetic to the UK.

It would instrumentality galore inquiries to tease isolated the effect of each the imaginable reasons down each nation's pandemic outcomes: preparedness, colonisation health, lockdown timing and severity, societal support, vaccine rollout and wellness attraction proviso and others.

But immoderate reason that determination are lessons for the UK that request to beryllium learned adjacent earlier we deliberation astir aboriginal pandemics.

The UK's dense pandemic decease toll "built connected a decennary of lacklustre show connected beingness expectancy" says Veena Raleigh, of the King's Fund, a wellness deliberation tank. She argues that authorities enactment to amended colonisation wellness and crook that astir has "never been much urgent".

We collected information connected deaths successful five-year property groups and colonisation estimates/projections from Eurostat, the Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland, the Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency, the Centre for Disease Control, United States Census Bureau and Stats NZ.

We calculated the decease complaint successful each property radical and combined them to signifier an age-adjusted decease complaint utilizing the 2013 European Standard Population.

Some nations did not person the afloat acceptable of property bands. For example, US figures utilized 10-year property bands betwixt 5 and 24 and supra 55. Broader property bands tin exaggerate excess mortality figures similar the ones we calculated, successful the bid of a percent point.

Additional journalism by Callum Thomson, Isabella Worth, Jana Tauschinski, Liana Bravo and Wesley Stephenson