Covid: Was Matt Hancock right to push for schools to close?

The WhatsApp statement betwixt ministers happened successful precocious December 2020, astatine which constituent rates of Covid corruption were rising, driven by the caller Alpha variant. It reportedly prompted Mr Hancock to pass reopening schools would beryllium a "policy car crash" with children spreading the disease.

The BBC has not seen oregon independently verified the WhatsApp messages, truthful cannot justice the discourse successful which they were sent.

But we person been told that astatine the time, down the scenes, technological advisers were besides torn. The authorities advisory assemblage Sage had made it wide that its modelling suggested if schools were to enactment unfastened it would beryllium hard to curb the emergence successful infections.

As always, it said determination were different considerations to instrumentality into relationship than conscionable curbing the dispersed of the virus. The astir evident was that closing schools again aft the March to September shutdown could person a devastating interaction connected children's wellbeing and education.

Some of the scientists astir intimately progressive successful the modelling had suggested keeping superior schools unfastened - the grounds astatine the clip suggested younger children were little apt to transmit the microorganism and would find distant learning much challenging.

But this enactment was, successful the end, rejected, and schools successful England closed until aboriginal March. The state started to spot corruption rates autumn rather sharply and soon we had 1 of Europe's lowest levels of Covid.

But that does not needfully mean the determination was close oregon that closing of schools was what tipped the balance. Within weeks determination were signs that the wintertime highest had already been reached, adjacent arsenic ministers were arguing implicit WhatsApp.

Why? One happening the modelling done for the authorities consistently failed to bash was instrumentality into relationship quality behaviour. With corruption rates rising implicit Christmas, the nationalist had already started to curb their mixing adjacent up of what became the 3rd nationalist lockdown successful the archetypal week of January 2021.

In the pursuing months, respective authorities scientists lamented the nonaccomplishment to bash much to support schools open, astatine slightest for immoderate property groups.

Could it person been different? England - and for that substance the remainder of the UK wherever schools were closed excessively - was not unsocial successful closing schools.

In precocious March 2020, 167 countries had afloat oregon partially closed their schools and by that December, that fig was 85.

But determination were countries successful Europe wherever schools were not closed for arsenic long, oregon astatine all. Sweden kept superior schoolhouse and younger secondary schoolhouse pupils successful people throughout, for example.

There are questions to reply astir prioritisation too. There were periods, for example, erstwhile hairdressers and bars were open, but schools were not.

Ministers could, of course, could person kept schools unfastened successful January 2021 and accepted determination was a greater hazard of the microorganism spreading, harmless successful the cognition that children were astatine debased hazard of terrible illness.

At the time, the vaccine programme had conscionable started rolling out, and the teaching unions were erstwhile again putting up objections to having schools afloat open, arguing it would enactment their members astatine risk. Although passim the pandemic teachers were astatine nary higher hazard of being infected than average. Shop workers and wellness staff, for example, were overmuch much apt to get Covid.

The grounds astatine that constituent was that schools were not a peculiar operator of infections, alternatively they simply mirrored what was happening successful society.

It aboriginal became wide that the ascendant Alpha variant would pb to higher rates of corruption among children and young radical than different property groups. But that is hardly astonishing fixed they consistently mixed much aft the archetypal lockdown, which was the astir stringent.

Some person argued an earlier lockdown - possibly successful mid-December erstwhile Alpha was identified and with the vaccine programme nether mode - would person fixed ministers much wriggle country to support schools open.

But the statement astir schoolhouse opening besides needs to see what was and was not done for pupils.

Schools ne'er afloat closed during lockdowns. They remained unfastened for susceptible children and cardinal workers - accounting for between 11% and 20% of children successful England from January to aboriginal March 2021.

With teachers switching to distant learning for those retired of school, acquisition continued during nationalist lockdowns for astir pupils.

But not everyone had the aforesaid entree to laptops and different exertion to assistance them larn from home.

There is, of course, nary uncertainty that the pandemic had an interaction connected children's education. Last year, 59% of England's pupils met the expected standards successful reading, penning and maths successful Year 6 Sats tests, down from 65% successful 2019.

The authorities said astatine the clip that this was to beryllium "expected owed to the interaction of the pandemic" and that determination was "more enactment to do" to assistance pupils drawback up.

The pandemic has had societal and affectional impacts too. BBC investigation published successful February and October past twelvemonth showed determination had been a 77% emergence successful the fig of children needing specializer attraction for terrible intelligence wellness crisis, portion the fig of 5 and six-year-olds who needed code and connection enactment astatine school had risen by 10%.

In the end, it came down to a judgement telephone by politicians. They could person kept schools open, oregon kept them closed for little time.

What is wide is that their determination had immense consequences for children.