Cyril Ramaphosa: South Africa's president considers future amid corruption scandal - BBC

South Africans are waiting, galore successful heavy trepidation, to find retired if President Cyril Ramaphosa is astir to resign successful the aftermath of a murky and highly politicised ungraded involving cattle, a sofa, and the theft of hundreds of thousands (and perchance millions) of dollars.

Much present hangs connected a gathering of the leaders of the country's governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), which is owed to convene successful the coming days.

Mr Ramaphosa's astir ardent supporters - and helium remains a fashionable person - framework this infinitesimal arsenic an all-or-nothing combat betwixt a decent man, desperately trying to cleanable up a corruption-ridden country, and the forces of chaos with the ANC who are trying to get escaped of him successful bid to support clasp of their loot and support themselves retired of prison.

One commentator likened the play to Shakespeare's Henry V, urging Mr Ramaphosa to "stiffen the sinews" and combat to wide his name.

There's nary uncertainty that the lawsuit against Mr Ramaphosa was - astatine slightest to statesman with - politically motivated.

A well-known governmental rival, linked to South Africa's disgraced erstwhile President, Jacob Zuma, dramatically revealed allegations that millions of dollars - hidden successful a sofa - had gone missing from Mr Ramaphosa's high-end Phala Phala crippled farm, and that determination had been a constabulary cover-up.

The president - a affluent businessman and erstwhile liberation conflict icon, erstwhile backed by Nelson Mandela to win him - loftily declared that helium was innocent.

But the communicative has not gone away, and implicit time, arsenic caller details and denials person leaked out, adjacent immoderate of his supporters person acknowledged that the ungraded has been poorly handled by Mr Ramaphosa and his aides.

"There are questions that helium has not been capable to answer… astir these immense sums of cash. He'd told america he'd enactment each these [businesses] successful unsighted trust. I deliberation helium was precise clumsy and careless… and retired of touch," said Nombonisa Gasa, a governmental analyst.

In the over-heated satellite of the ANC - a enactment truthful agelong successful powerfulness that its furious interior feuds present consciousness much similar open-warfare - the campaigning and jockeying are successful afloat swing.

The enactment is owed to prime a person aboriginal this period - with Mr Ramaphosa an casual favourite to win. But those calculations are present changing fast.

It's been wide reported that Mr Ramaphosa has already decided to quit, but is being persuaded by allies to deliberation again, oregon astatine slightest to bargain clip successful bid to guarantee a creaseless modulation to idiosyncratic credible.

His existent deputy, and automatic heir, Vice-President David Dabede Mabuza, is not tipped arsenic the close antheral for that role.

But could anyone successful the existent ANC enactment - truthful galore tainted, themselves, by allegations of corruption - garner the levels of nationwide fashionable enactment that Mr Ramaphosa inactive enjoys?

And if not, are we watching the dilatory unravelling of the enactment that erstwhile liberated South Africa from apartheid - and predetermination decision successful 2024?

South Africa's main absorption party, the Democratic Alliance, is surely hoping to capitalise connected the existent crisis, calling for aboriginal elections. Some analysts spot the ANC's diminution arsenic some inevitable, and bully for the country's young democracy.

"Most South Africans are truly acrophobic astir what volition hap next. Because determination is no-one acceptable to [replace Mr Ramaphosa]. But this is the opening of the extremity for the ANC - and that's a bully thing. The ANC has done its job. It liberated the country. It's clip for thing new," said governmental expert Thembisa Fakude.

"I deliberation South Africa has managed to found precise beardown antiauthoritarian daze absorbers, and [Mr Ramaphosa's resignation - if it happens, would be] exemplary for Africa - here's a person who voluntarily resigned."

It seems improbable - but inactive imaginable - that Mr Zuma's faction wrong the ANC volition beryllium capable to capitalise connected the chaos, instrumentality to power, and derail the full anti-corruption drive. That would beryllium a look for governmental oblivion astatine the adjacent elections.

"The Zuma faction is battling to cohere, beyond a radical of radical person grievances due to the fact that they mightiness look charges of corruption. But it's excessively aboriginal to accidental they cannot travel back," said Ms Gasa.

But adjacent a moderately competent replacement for Mr Ramaphosa is apt to shingle the markets and thrust distant the fewer overseas investors inactive consenting to springiness South Africa a chance, astatine a clip erstwhile the system - grappling with astir regular powerfulness cuts - is struggling to retrieve from the pandemic, and from the years of authorities corruption during Mr Zuma's era.

Last year, the feuding wrong the ANC triggered riots successful Durban and elsewhere that near much than 300 radical dormant and caused billions of dollars successful damages. There was a consciousness past that South Africa had peered implicit the abyss and stepped backmost - that it present understood however fragile its young ideology was.

That whitethorn beryllium the case, but with nary single, credible enactment poised to capitalise connected the ANC's struggles, the interest present is that South Africa is heading towards an epoch of profoundly unpredictable and unstable conjugation politics, easy exploited by smaller populist parties.

As for President Ramaphosa himself - galore wonderment whether helium has the tummy for a agelong fight, oregon whether the billionaire businessman, credited for his institution-building attack to government, but criticised for a deficiency of governmental musculus - whitethorn similar to permission the ANC to its battles and instrumentality to his cattle ranch.

"He did not person capable warring instinct and an quality to spell for the jugular, successful getting escaped of the astir toxic anti-constitutional people [in the ANC]. We needed idiosyncratic with a much muscular approach," said governmental expert Eusebius McKaiser.