Defunct Satellite and Rocket Stage Nearly Collide in Potential 'Worst-Case Scenario' - Gizmodo

An aged rocket assemblage and subject satellite—large pieces of abstraction junk dating backmost to the Soviet Union—nearly smashed into each different connected Friday morning, successful an uncomfortable near-miss that would’ve resulted successful thousands of pieces of debris had they collided.

LeoLabs, a backstage institution that tracks satellites and derelict objects successful debased Earth orbit, spotted the near-collision successful radar data. The company, which tin way objects arsenic tiny arsenic 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) successful diameter, operates 3 radar stations, 2 successful the U.S. and 1 successful New Zealand.

The 2 objects whizzed past each different astatine an altitude of 611 miles (984 kilometers) connected the greeting of Friday, January 27. LeoLabs “computed a miss region of lone 6 meters [20 feet] with an mistake borderline of lone a fewer tens of meters,” the institution said successful a tweet.

That is unbelievably close, arsenic Harvard-Smithsonian astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell conveyed successful a graphic posted to Twitter. The SL-8 rocket assemblage (NORAD ID 16511), specifically its 2nd stage, has been successful abstraction since 1986, portion the Cosmos 2361 subject outer (NORAD ID 25590), known arsenic Parus, launched to debased Earth orbit successful 1998. A collision betwixt the 2 objects would person produced thousands of caller debris fragments that would person lingered successful Earth orbit for decades.

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The conjunction happened successful an orbital “bad neighborhood” located betwixt 590 and 652 miles (950 and 1,050 km) supra the surface, according to LeoLabs. This set has “significant debris-generating potential” successful debased Earth orbit “due to a premix of breakup events and abandoned derelict objects,” the institution explained successful a bid of tweets. The alleged atrocious vicinity hosts astir 160 SL-8 rocket bodies on with their astir 160 payloads launched decades ago. LeoLabs says astir 1,400 conjunctions involving these rocket bodies were chronicled betwixt June and September 2022.

LeoLabs describes this benignant of imaginable collision betwixt “two monolithic derelict objects” arsenic a “worst-case scenario,” saying it would beryllium “largely retired of our power and would apt effect successful a ripple effect of unsafe collisional encounters.” Indeed, a collision connected this standard would astir surely accelerate the ongoing Kessler Syndrome—the dependable accumulation of abstraction debris that threatens to marque portions of Earth orbit inaccessible.

Related story: What to Know About Kessler Syndrome, the Ultimate Space Disaster

Near-misses successful abstraction are becoming progressively common, whether it’s conjunctions betwixt defunct satellites oregon clouds of debris that endanger the International Space Station. Avoidance maneuvers are present a dependable fixture for outer operators, with SpaceX, arsenic an utmost example, having to perform implicit 26,000 collision avoidance maneuvers of its Starlink satellites from December 1, 2020 to November 30, 2022.

In summation to focusing connected collision avoidance, LeoLabs recommends the implementation of debris mitigation and debris remediation efforts. This could instrumentality the signifier of sensible guidelines having to bash with the removal of satellites erstwhile they’re been retired, arsenic good arsenic the instauration of debris removal technologies.

More: The FCC Wants a 5-Year Deadline to Deorbit Defunct Satellites