12:58 PM ET
Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer
- Bill Connelly is simply a unit writer for ESPN.com.
Seven weeks ago, Graham Potter near Brighton & Hove Albion for a squad little successful the Premier League table.
Months aft starring the Seagulls to their best-ever top-division decorativeness -- ninth spot successful 2021-22, conscionable 5 points distant from qualifying for European competition, with late-season wins implicit Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United -- Potter's squad had started the caller play brilliantly, beating United again and walloping Leicester City 5-2 connected the mode to 4th successful the table. Chelsea was lone 3 points down them successful sixth, but had conscionable fired Champions League victor Thomas Tuchel aft a disastrous commencement to this season's European campaign.
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The propulsion of the apical contention was evidently excessively much: Potter near the Sussex seashore for London to instrumentality implicit Chelsea's high-end, low-cohesiveness roster, and bid has more-or-less been restored since.
On Saturday, Potter's Blues volition sojourn Brighton, having risen to 5th successful the array (fourth successful points per game) and clinched archetypal spot successful their Champions League group. Their adjacent nonaccomplishment volition beryllium Potter's first. Brighton, meanwhile, has labored nether caller manager Roberto de Zerbi, getting smited erstwhile again by the deity of finishing and falling to ninth.
Potter and De Zerbi are 2 of rather a fewer coaches to person taken implicit for fired oregon departed coaches successful the archetypal 3 months of the season. Four jobs astatine Champions League clubs person already travel unfastened and been filled, and it's not yet November. So let's cheque successful connected however immoderate of the much big-name managers are performing successful their caller roles.
JUMP TO: Roberto de Zerbi (Brighton) | Marco Rose (RB Leipzig) | Jorge Sampaoli (Sevilla) | Xabi Alonso (Bayer Leverkusen) | Others
Graham Potter (Chelsea)
Hired: Sept. 7
Matches: 9 (6 wins, 2.33 points per game)
Goals average: 1.8 for, 0.4 against
xG average: 1.3 for, 0.9 against
Primary changes successful likelihood (per FiveThirtyEight's SPI): From 51% to 100% to beforehand to the Champions League knockout rounds, from 35% to 50% to decorativeness successful the Premier League apical four
One of the astir communal impulses erstwhile making a coaching change, nary substance the sport, is to prosecute the other of your ex. In presumption of temperament, Chelsea whitethorn person done conscionable that, replacing the mercurial Tuchel with the much laid-back Potter, but they besides replaced a tinkerer with a tinkerer.
Tuchel had deployed 5 starting formations successful his 7 matches this play (five with 3 astatine the back, 2 with four), with wounded and restlessness some causing him to shuffle his lineups constantly. Potter has done precisely the aforesaid thing: Nine matches person seen six starting formations, though he's begun to settee in. Over the past 4 matches, Potter has stuck chiefly with thing adjacent to a 3-4-2-1.
Almost nary 1 connected the Chelsea roster tin accidental that Potter hasn't fixed them a accidental frankincense acold -- nary 1 but Edouard Mendy (and attacker Hakim Ziyech), anyway. The 30-year aged goalkeeper was Tuchel's archetypal prime and a stalwart connected 2021's Champions League-winning squad. But helium battled signifier issues precocious past season, and an wounded meant that Potter had to spell with Kepa Arrizabalaga betwixt the posts. Kepa's superb signifier has since necessitated that helium stay successful the lineup. He's the lone subordinate to person recorded 100% of the disposable minutes nether Potter. Incredibly, nary 1 other has topped adjacent 80%.
Potter has frankincense acold fixed astatine slightest 128 minutes to 19 players, a merchandise of some experimentation and necessity. Midfielder N'Golo Kante and defenders Reece James and Wesley Fofana are presently injured and person combined for conscionable 478 minutes since Potter took over. But virtually everyone other has gotten a run, from aged (Thiago Silva, with 78% of disposable minutes) to young (Trevoh Chalobah, 73%), from newcomer (Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, 62%) to stalwart (Cesar Azpilicueta, 54%) and from young Englishman (Conor Gallagher, 39%) to young American (Christian Pulisic, 25%).
It's hard to nutrient results portion experimenting to this degree, but Potter and Chelsea person done truthful frankincense far. They person allowed conscionable 4 goals contempt each the shuffling successful the back, and 11 antithetic players person scored astatine slightest once. The Chelsea onslaught comes from everyplace and everyone: Of the 19 players with astatine slightest 100 minutes, 9 are averaging betwixt 0.26 and 0.54 combined xG+xA per 90 minutes, led by Gallagher (0.54) and Aubameyang (0.45).
Chelsea pulled 10 points from 4 Champions League matches -- 2 wins implicit Italian champions AC Milan and a triumph and a gully against Austrian champions FC Salzburg -- to clinch advancement there, and aft opening with 3 Premier League wins, they settled for location draws against Brentford and Manchester United.
Their xG averages aren't arsenic affirmative arsenic their wide scoring averages, but that's chiefly due to the fact that of 1 match: a 2-0 triumph astatine Aston Villa. The Blues produced conscionable 0.9 xG from 8 shots, portion Villa produced 1.8 from 18, but a superb show from Kepa and a brace of opportunistic goals from Mason Mount -- 1 a pounce connected a antiaircraft mistake, the different a superb escaped footwear from 30 meters retired -- secured the victory. In lone 1 different lucifer (0-0 vs. Brentford) did they make a little xG full than their opponent.
Things are going well, successful different words. The conflict for a top-four decorativeness volition not beryllium implicit anytime soon, and 1 assumes that Potter volition yet hone his lineup enactment a bit. But Chelsea is playing mostly positive, possession-heavy ball, and helium has frankincense acold made the gamble of firing Tuchel wage off. Now helium conscionable has to support doing it.
Roberto de Zerbi (Brighton)
Hired: Sept. 8
Matches: 5 (0 wins, 0.4 points per game)
Goals average: 0.8 for, 1.8 against
xG average: 1.3 for, 1.1 against
Primary changes successful odds: From 25% to 12% to decorativeness successful the Premier League apical four
Potter's Brighton served arsenic a semipermanent illustration for the predictive powerfulness of xG successful 2020-21. The Gulls finished 16th successful the Premier League contempt boasting the fifth-best xG differential successful the league; they turned 1.5 xG per lucifer into conscionable 1.05 goals and mislaid 11 matches by 1 extremity with 14 draws. It definite seemed similar they should person produced amended results and the pursuing season, they did. They inactive weren't fantabulous successful the finishing section (1.43 xG per match, 1.11 goals), but they improved capable to flip immoderate adjacent matches -- they went from averaging 1.05 points per crippled successful matches decided by 0-1 goals to a much mean 1.43 -- and decorativeness ninth.
Perhaps the aforesaid destiny yet awaits De Zerbi. The erstwhile Shakhtar Donetsk manager helped to technologist a thrilling 3-3 gully astatine Liverpool successful his debut, but successful 4 matches since, Brighton has turned 62 shots worthy 4.9 xG into conscionable 1 goal. Against Brentford and Nottingham Forest, they attempted 40 shots to opponents' 10 and got outscored by a combined 2-0. Leandro Trossard has scored 4 times nether De Zerbi; nary 1 other has recovered the nett successful 53 combined changeable attempts.
If points were distributed based connected xG totals -- each nerd's dream, americium I right?? -- they would person earned astir 8 points successful De Zerbi's 5 matches. Instead, they produced conscionable 2 and person fallen from 4th to ninth successful the Premier League.
1:04
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens consciousness that caller Brighton manager Roberto de Zerbi is the cleanable acceptable for the club.
If you look past the finishing problems -- and if immoderate nine is acquainted with some those issues and the perchance rewarding patience required to look past it, it's Brighton -- things are going beauteous well. They so scored a gully astatine Anfield and performed alternatively good successful a 3-1 nonaccomplishment to Manchester City, and against 3 different opponents (Spurs, Brentford and Forest) they averaged 18 shots to opponents' six and were astatine a 59% possession complaint oregon higher successful each match.
De Zerbi had nary Brighton acquisition earlier helium came to town, but he's a wide kindred spirit. And for amended oregon worse, helium hasn't had astir arsenic galore choices to marque erstwhile putting unneurotic his squad. Nine players person played each oregon astir each of the minutes nether De Zerbi frankincense far: Goalkeeper Robert Sanchez (100% of disposable minutes), defenders Adam Webster (100%), Lewis Dunk (100%) and Joel Veltman (94%), midfielders Solly March (100%), Moises Caicedo (99%), Alexis Mac Allister (99%) and Trossard (95%) and guardant Danny Welbeck (98%). He has made lone 17 of 25 disposable substitutions frankincense far, too, with lone midfielder Tariq Lamptey making much than 3 substitute appearances (four for 76 minutes).
Maybe injuries and regression successful that consciousness onslaught Brighton conscionable arsenic they commencement remembering however to score. But connected paper, this should stay a top-10 Premier League team, and based solely connected the precocious stats, De Zerbi has Potter's aged squad playing astir arsenic good arsenic Potter's caller team.
How overmuch that matters connected Saturday, however, volition astir apt beryllium upon whom the deity of finishing smiles.
Marco Rose (RB Leipzig)
Hired: Sept. 8
Matches: 10 (6 wins, 2.0 points per game)
Goals average: 2.2 for, 1.4 against
xG average: 2.0 for, 1.4 against
Primary changes successful odds: From 34% to 73% to beforehand to the Champions League knockout rounds, from 31% to 40% to decorativeness successful the Bundesliga apical four
The past 3 years person been an implicit roller-coaster for the 46-year aged Rose. After 2 palmy seasons astatine FC Salzburg -- determination are nary different types of seasons determination -- helium recovered contiguous occurrence astatine Borussia Monchengladbach. They were archetypal successful the Bundesliga array astatine the near-midway constituent of the season, and with wins successful each of their past 3 matches they were capable to fend disconnected Bayer Leverkusen and others to snare 4th spot and a Champions League bid for the archetypal clip successful 4 years.
They precocious to the Champions League knockout rounds successful 2020-21 and spent astir of the archetypal fractional of the play successful the Bundesliga apical 4 again, but aft Gladbach announced helium would beryllium leaving for Borussia Dortmund astatine the extremity of the season, the squad fell isolated and finished 10th. And his lone play with BVB was beset by wounded and inconsistency. Borussia Dortmund finished 2nd successful the Bundesliga but finished good backmost of what seemed similar a susceptible mentation of Bayern Munich, and successful Europe they were knocked retired of the Champions League radical stages and rapidly bowed retired of the Europa League aft allowing six goals successful 2 matches against Rangers. It seemed similar helium had misplaced each the magic from his possession-and-passion style, and BVB dismissed him.
Once you've coached a top-level German team, however, it seems you volition ever person a job, and erstwhile RBL fired Domenico Tedesco aft a terribly disappointing commencement -- lone 1 triumph successful their archetypal 5 Bundesliga matches, positive a shocking 4-1 location nonaccomplishment to Shakhtar Donetsk to statesman Champions League play -- they elected to bring Rose backmost to his hometown.
When things spell poorly for either Rose oregon RBL, it tends to travel via waves of issues successful modulation defense. That makes consciousness for the high-possession, high-wire enactment some entities attempt, and Rose's clip successful Leipzig has been alternatively all-or-nothing. He started with a 3-0 walloping of Dortmund, his erstwhile team, past followed that up with losses of 2-0 astatine Real Madrid (forgivable) and 3-0 astatine his different erstwhile team, Gladbach (less forgivable).
Since then, however, determination person been much ups than downs. Their past 7 matches person produced 5 wins and 2 draws, and portion antiaircraft vulnerabilities popped up again successful caller matches -- a 3-2 triumph vs. Hertha Berlin and a 3-3 gully astatine Augsburg (Augsburg scored the archetypal 3 goals, past fto RBL backmost successful aft a reddish card) -- that doesn't substance arsenic overmuch erstwhile you're averaging astir 3 goals per match.
Rose switched things from a mostly three-at-the-back attack nether Tedesco to a much straight-forward 4-2-3-1, and helium is getting typically superb accumulation from Christopher Nkunku (6 goals and 19 chances created successful 10 matches successful each competitions with Rose). Meanwhile, forwards Timo Werner and Andre Silva person combined for 7 goals and 4 assists from 19 chances successful that span, and 22-year aged Dominik Szoboszlai, reunited with Rose aft they spent a play unneurotic astatine Salzburg, is looking much similar 1 of Europe's astir originative players by the time (1 extremity and 5 assists from 27 chances created).
With Tuesday's upset of Real Madrid, RBL has enactment itself successful bully presumption to beforehand successful the Champions League; they request lone a gully against Shakhtar to advance. And portion the contention for the Bundesliga apical 4 is peculiarly crowded astatine the infinitesimal -- FiveThirtyEight presently gives 9 teams, fractional the league, astatine slightest a 15% accidental of finishing determination -- RBL volition beryllium an evident favourite if they proceed their prolific ways.
Jorge Sampaoli (Sevilla)
Hired: Oct. 5
Matches: 6 (2 wins, 1.5 points per game)
Goals average: 1.3 for, 1.0 against
xG average: 0.8 for, 1.5 against
Primary changes successful odds: from 16% to 0% to beforehand to the Champions League knockout rounds, from 2% to 3% to decorativeness successful LaLiga apical four, from 13% to 9% to endure relegation
There were immoderate informing signs past year. Julen Lopetegui led Sevilla to 3 consecutive fourth-place finishes successful LaLiga, positive a Europa League crown successful 2020, but they won lone 5 of their past 18 league matches past play and finished 4th lone due to the fact that of an aboriginal cushion they had built implicit rival Real Betis. Meanwhile, they failed to beforehand successful the Champions League and bowed retired of the Europa League successful the circular of 16.
FiveThirtyEight projected Sevilla seventh successful the league heading into 2022-23, and seventh rapidly began to consciousness optimistic. They pulled conscionable 5 points from their archetypal 7 league matches and got outscored by a combined 8-1 successful their archetypal 3 Champions League matches too. They were already 10 points retired of the apical 4 erstwhile Lopetegui was fired connected Oct. 5.
Sampaoli is simply a ridiculously seasoned manager -- the 62-year aged has managed 13 antithetic clubs now, positive 2 nationalist teams (Chile, Argentina) -- and enactment unneurotic a beauteous show arsenic Marseille's manager past year. It was a small unusual that helium accepted this job, if lone due to the fact that helium had near Marseille successful portion retired of vexation that they weren't making much offseason moves and landed with a nine that didn't marque galore offseason moves. They sold the rights to center-backs Jules Kounde and Diego Carlos to Barcelona and Aston Villa, respectively, for a combined $89 million, replaced them with Tanguy Nianzou and Marcao for $34 million, added a fewer loanees, and that was astir it. Sampaoli has stabilized things ... to a degree. This being Sevilla, they're inactive drafting successful fractional their matches, but they person mislaid lone erstwhile since helium took over.
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Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens sermon Sevilla's assignment of Jorge Sampaoli arsenic manager.
There are inactive immoderate informing signs, though. For starters, look astatine the xG averages supra -- they're awful. In league draws with Athletic Club and Valencia and a triumph implicit Mallorca, they outscored opponents by a combined 3-2 but attempted 32 shots worthy 2.4 xG portion allowing 43 shots worthy 4.3. They got manhandled by Real Madrid, and they've lone generated much changeable worth successful 1 of six matches (they generated 0.8 xG to Borussia Dortmund's 0.4 successful their 1-1 gully connected Oct. 11). They're keeping bodies down the ball, and they've blocked 19 shots successful league play since Sampaoli took implicit (only Real Valladolid has blocked more). That speaks to effort, hustle, and each those bully things, but it's mostly not a bully thing, long-term, erstwhile your hostile is attempting some much shots and amended shots.
Perhaps the defence volition stabilize erstwhile the unit does? Six players person seen decent minutes successful what is typically a three-man cardinal defence from Sampaoli (Marcao and Nianzou, positive Jose Angel Carmona, Nemanja Gudelj, Kike Salas and Gonzalo Montiel), and helium seems to inactive beryllium attempting to find the champion spot connected the transportation for players similar Manchester United loanee Alex Telles, who's been positioned each on the near sideline. But Sevilla person continued to suffer ground: They're present 12 points backmost of the apical four, and per FiveThirtyEight their likelihood of playing successful the Spanish 2nd part adjacent twelvemonth are higher than their likelihood of playing successful the Champions League.
Xabi Alonso (Bayer Leverkusen)
Hired: Oct. 5
Matches: 5 (one win, 1.0 points per game)
Goals average: 1.8 for, 2.4 against
xG average: 1.6 for, 2.0 against
Primary changes successful odds: From 44% to 0% to beforehand to the Champions League knockout rounds, from 10% to 5% to decorativeness successful the Bundesliga apical four, from 6% to 9% to endure relegation
What a terribly disappointing play it's been astatine the BayArena. After a rousing third-place Bundesliga decorativeness past season, Bayer Leverkusen retained astir of its core, including prima attackers Patrik Schick and Moussa Diaby, and entered the play with sky-high expectations. They face-planted retired of the gate, losing to third-division Elversberg successful the DFB-Pokal and winning lone erstwhile successful their archetypal 8 matches successful each competitions. A 2-0 location upset of Atletico Madrid brought hope, but they rapidly followed that with losses to Bayern Munich and Porto by a combined 6-0. Manager Gerardo Seoane went from up-and-coming to unemployed successful 2 months.
To the club's imaginable credit, Leverkusen didn't panic and bring successful a low-upside seasoned to steer them to safety. Instead, they aimed for upside successful bringing successful the 40-year aged Alonso, a long-admired person connected the transportation whose lone managerial acquisition was with Real Sociedad's B-team. His debut was an fantabulous 4-0 stomping of last-place Schalke 044, but the contention has stepped up since then, and Leverkusen's aged problems remain. They were outscored by Porto and Eintracht Frankfurt by a combined 8-1, they needed a precocious extremity to prevention a 2-2 location gully against 14th-place Wolfsburg, and they needed a precocious punishment prevention to clasp onto a 2-2 roadworthy gully with Atletico.
The illustration size is small, but Alonso has been moving astatine moving Leverkusen to much of a three-at-the-back team, deploying a 3-4-3 successful 4 of 5 matches. That has astir made them adjacent much lopsided successful attack, with the trio of Edmond Tapsoba, Jeremie Frimpong and Diaby pulling things to the right. Mind you, the Frimpong-Diaby operation is by acold the champion happening this squad has to connection astatine the infinitesimal -- they've combined for six goals and 2 assists successful Alonso's 5 matches unsocial -- but they're inactive waiting for Schick, their prima center-forward with conscionable 3 goals from shots worthy 6.8 xG this year, to get going. (They'll beryllium waiting a spot longer, arsenic he's retired with a calf injury.)
As with Brighton, the xG gods person been unkind to Alonso frankincense far. To beryllium sure, their dreadful defence has not improved: They fertile past successful the Bundesliga successful xG allowed per changeable (0.13), and Porto, Frankfurt and Wolfsburg needed conscionable 33 changeable attempts to make 6.9 xG (and 10 existent goals) successful caller matches. Still, they've created plentifulness of value, too. Against Porto and Wolfsburg, they created 4.6 xG to opponents' 3.0 and were unfortunate to get outscored 5-2. (The tables evened retired a spot against Atleti, which created 2.9 xG from 23 shots but couldn't get past Leverkusen with its 13 shots for 1.5 xG.)
They're inactive 15th successful the Bundesliga, but their relegation likelihood stay low. They volition astir apt close the vessel soon, but this agelong tally of mediocre signifier has already eliminated them from the Champions League ... and has each but eliminated them from next season's Champions League too.
A rundown of different managerial changes:
Above were the 5 biggest in-season moves to date, but plentifulness of different clubs changed managers aboriginal successful this campaign. Let's cheque successful connected the different 8 (non-interim) newbies from Europe's Big Five leagues.
Thiago Motta (Bologna)
Hired: Sept. 12
The 40-year aged erstwhile Paris Saint-Germain midfielder took implicit aft a mediocre commencement for erstwhile manager (and leukemia patient) Sinisa Mihajlovic; he's known for an aggressive, attacking philosophy, and they got picked isolated by Juventus (3-0) and Napoli (3-2), but successful their past 2 matches they've beaten Cagliari successful the Italian Cup (1-0) and Lecce (2-0) successful league play. Progress?
Raffaele Palladino (Monza)
Hired: Sept. 13
From a axenic before-and-after standpoint, Palladino mightiness beryllium the champion prosecute frankincense far. Monza had 1 constituent six matches into their archetypal Serie A season, and they won 3 successful a enactment -- including a 1-0 decision of Juventus -- aft helium came aboard. They've mislaid their past 2 league matches, but that burst chopped their likelihood of relegation successful half, per FiveThirtyEight. They're presently astatine conscionable 20%.
Thomas Letsch (Bochum)
Hired: Sept. 22
If Palladino hasn't provided the biggest changeable successful the arm, Letsch has. Bochum's likelihood of relegation are inactive steep (currently 58%), but they hadn't beaten a Bundesliga hostile since May 6 erstwhile helium took over, and successful the past 3 weeks they've taken down 2 of the hottest teams successful the league, Eintracht Frankfurt (3-0 connected Oct. 8) and Union Berlin (2-1 past Sunday). They besides precocious successful the DFB-Pokal.
Dejan Stankovic (Sampdoria)
Hired: Oct. 6
After resigning from Serbia's Crvena Zvezda successful August, Stankovic came aboard to effort to prevention Sampdoria from relegation. The bully news: They yet won their archetypal league lucifer of the play connected Monday. Bad news: It took until Oct. 24 to triumph their archetypal league lucifer of the season, and their likelihood of relegation are inactive beauteous precocious (45%).
Laurent Blanc (Lyon)
Hired: Oct. 9
The erstwhile PSG manager (and World Cup-winning defender) took implicit for Peter Bosz aft a mediocre start, and he's lone been successful complaint for 2 matches frankincense far: a 3-2 nonaccomplishment with Rennes and a 2-1 triumph implicit Montpellier. The coming weeks volition specify Lyon's play -- their adjacent 3 matches are against sixth-place Lille, fifth-place Marseille and past year's fifth-place finisher, Nice. Now's the clip to leap backmost into the Champions League race.
Jorge Almiron (Elche)
Hired: Oct. 12
After a twelvemonth away, Almiron returned for his 2nd stint astatine last-place Elche 2 weeks ago. One cannot accidental helium hasn't attacked the situation with vigor: In 3 matches, Elche has doubled its constituent full (from 2 to four) with a brace of 2-2 draws against Valencia and Espanyol. They've inactive got gangly likelihood to flooded (68% accidental of relegation), but they're throwing immoderate haymakers astatine least.
Salvatore Bocchetti (Hellas Verona)
Hired: Oct. 13
The 35-year aged lone precocious retired from playing, and helium got promoted from younker manager to full-on manager aft the nine dismissed Gabriele Cioffi. They person suffered competitory 2-1 losses to AC Milan and Sassuolo to commencement his tenure, continuing 2 season-long trends: decent discourtesy and terribly leaky defense.
Unai Emery (Aston Villa)
Hired: This week
Emery is simply a brave antheral with "something to prove." The erstwhile Arsenal and PSG brag leaves a Villarreal nine with a 33% changeable astatine a top-four decorativeness successful LaLiga and takes implicit a disorganized Villa squad with a 9% accidental astatine relegation from the Premier League.
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