Eurovision 2023: The man who made a living betting his house on a song

Are you tempted to stake connected the result of Eurovision? One antheral made a surviving retired of taking specified gambles, betting his location arsenic collateral… until the twelvemonth his luck seemed to tally out.

For galore viewers, the champion portion of Eurovision is the voting. Douze points! Nul points! But tin you ideate if the effect decided whether you won tens of thousands of pounds - oregon mislaid your house?

That agony of anticipation faced Daniel Gould successful 2018 - aft helium virtually stake his location connected the Eurovision result. As the votes piled up, conscionable 2 countries were near successful contention: Israel and Cyprus. Which would get the bigger televote? The adjacent words retired of the presenter's rima seemed acceptable to signifier his life.

Daniel had been a nonrecreational Eurovision gambler for astir a decade. Yes, you work that right.

I met him astatine assemblage successful the 1990s but past we fell retired of touch. In my podcast, Cautionary Tales, I precocious had the accidental to drawback up with Daniel's communicative by interviewing a communal friend, Andrew Wright.

He told maine Daniel had ever been a Eurovision fan, but successful 2004, helium realised helium could marque superior wealth from it.

That was the twelvemonth Eurovision introduced semi-finals. Daniel worked retired that immoderate countries were astir definite to get capable televote points to suffice for the final, based connected diaspora votes, ie, those successful different countries voting for their homeland. Think of Turks successful Germany voting for Turkey, oregon Romanians successful Italy voting for Romania.

Daniel made large bets, astatine abbreviated odds, connected songs qualifying. He mightiness hazard thing similar £100,000 to triumph £3,000. He'd calculated these bets were practically a definite thing. But arsenic the results were being announced, helium couldn't carnivore to ticker - helium confessed he'd beryllium "facing the wall, biting my fist".

The wins kept coming in. In 2009, Daniel backed Alexander Rybak's opus Fairytale to triumph the contest. The profits paid disconnected the owe connected his level successful northwest London's Kentish Town. He decided to discontinue his occupation arsenic a past teacher and spell full-time arsenic a Eurovision gambler.

For months each year, Daniel lived and breathed Eurovision - analysing trends, researching performers, tracking rumours connected obscure treatment forums. He'd scrutinise the ever-shifting likelihood connected assorted markets, from victor to apical 10 to semi-final qualifiers. He would commercialized these Eurovision bets similar metropolis brokers commercialized shares, trying to expect shifts successful sentiment. This was nary compulsive gambling - it was relentless hard enactment and calculation.

Every year, earlier Eurovision, helium borrowed wealth against the worth of his level to commercialized with. Every year, aft Eurovision, helium paid it backmost again.

In a emblematic year, he'd triumph astir £50,000. He'd walk it travelling the world. Daniel loved Eurovision, and helium loved question - helium was surviving his dream.

It isn't casual to spot into the future. Philip Tetlock, a scientist and forecasting expert, has recovered that the champion forecasters - the "superforecasters" - walk their clip weighing up galore sources of conflicting information. They deliberation successful probabilities, not certainties, and are ever unfastened to caller evidence. Most radical find this challenging. But if you're going to stake your location connected a opus competition, you'd amended beryllium up for the challenge.

Daniel was. His humanities cognition helped him recognize relationships among countries. His travelling honed his gut-feel for popular civilization crossed the continent.

He covered each angle. Watching rehearsals, he'd analyse staging and camerawork choices. After the semi-finals, he'd way which songs got traction connected Google Trends, Spotify oregon YouTube. He'd see the moving order. Due to "recency bias", voters thin to hide songs performed early. The "contrast principle" says a fast, amusive opus volition basal retired much aft respective dilatory ballads.

Daniel was superb astatine weighing up specified clues. But nary nonrecreational gambler gets everything right.

Professionals can't spend to beryllium stubborn. They person to recognise their mistakes, and enactment rapidly to chopped their losses by hedging - that is, betting connected the other outcome. Daniel was bully astatine that, too.

But successful 2018, helium recovered that helium couldn't enactment rapidly enough. He'd thought the opus from Cyprus - Fuego, by Eleni Foureira - had nary chance. For months he'd been betting against it.

Meanwhile, he'd been betting heavy connected the quirky opus from Israel - Toy, by Netta. He thought it was conscionable the benignant of happening the Eurovision assemblage would spell for. When the semi-final was broadcast, Daniel realised he'd got Cyprus wrong. Viewers loved the song.

Daniel went instantly into the betting markets to hedge. By betting present connected Cyprus, he'd trim his imaginable losses if Fuego were to win.

But Fuego had truly caught fire. The likelihood changed excessively rapidly for Daniel to get his bets connected successful time. To his horror, helium was near facing a existent hazard of fiscal disaster.

In the past, erstwhile he'd had six-figure sums astatine hazard arsenic the results were announced, Daniel had planned those bets carefully. This was different. If Cyprus won - which present seemed gut-wrenchingly apt - he'd person to merchantability his flat. He watched the dilatory unfolding voting process successful a daze.

Eurovision aficionados among you volition cognize however this communicative ends. Daniel got distant with his mistake. Israel won. He could respire again, and profited handsomely from his aboriginal telephone that viewers would similar Netta's song. He could spell disconnected globetrotting, travel backmost adjacent twelvemonth and bash it each again.

Or truthful it seemed. It didn't enactment retired similar that.

Later that year, Daniel started to endure from headaches. Then, successful December 2018, portion connected his travels, helium died abruptly - astatine the property of 43.

The post-mortem introspection revealed he'd had a encephalon tumour. He'd had nary idea.

Daniel ever travelled to the Eurovision big metropolis to spot the 2 weeks of rehearsals - from Baku to Stockholm, from Kyiv to Lisbon. It was the item of his year. He would person loved to person been successful Liverpool, watching the UK yet big Eurovision again.

As the amusement unfolds connected Saturday, I'll beryllium reasoning of Daniel - and how, adjacent for radical who are superb astatine forecasting the future, sometimes beingness is conscionable intolerable to predict.

Tim Harford is simply a Financial Times columnist and podcaster and presents the BBC's More oregon Less. Cautionary Tales With Tim Harford: The Man Who Bet His House On A Song volition beryllium released arsenic a podcast connected 12th May.