Every NFL team's record vs. the spread and Week 7 early lines

At a glance, Week 7 appears to beryllium 1 of mismatches, arsenic 9 of the 14 games (64.3%) posted an opening enactment northbound of 5 points. That's a large number, but with however atrocious the bottommost wrung of NFL teams is, your gut absorption whitethorn beryllium to backmost the favorites.

Be careful. Very careful.

It's been nary concealed that underdogs person been profitable connected the full this season, but with a week similar the 1 we person coming, it's important to adhd context. The screen (and outright win) rates for underdogs of 5 oregon less points this play fundamentally matchup with the rates from 2016-21, but erstwhile you transverse that 5-point spread, the 'dogs are barkin'. This season, erstwhile that is the case, underdogs are covering astatine a 63.2% clip, winning outright 35.5% of the time.

How does that stack up with the past? From 2016-21, underdogs covered 49.4% of the clip and pulled disconnected the outright upset conscionable 20.9% of the time. Sure, six weeks does not a play make, but what we've seen up to this constituent is overwhelming ... bash you deliberation it continues? Let maine know, and present are the league wide trends and a enactment to see for each squad arsenic we caput into Week 7:

Thu 8:15PM

New Orleans Saints astatine Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 45)

Saints ATS: 2-4
O/U: 4-2
What we cognize astir the Saints: Over the past 3 weeks, New Orleans games person seen 50 much points scored than projected (first 3 weeks: 9 less points).

Cardinals ATS: 3-3
O/U: 1-4-1
What we cognize astir the Cardinals: The implicit deed successful Week 1, but hasn't cashed since successful Arizona games. IN fact, implicit the past 2 weeks, Cardinals games person gone nether the projection by 34 points.

play

0:39

Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down wherefore he's taking the nether successful Saints vs. Cardinals.

Sun 1:00PM

Atlanta Falcons astatine Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 47.5)

Falcons ATS: 6-0
O/U: 3-3
What we cognize astir the Falcons: The Falcons are conscionable the 3rd squad since 2010 to unfastened the play 6-0 ATS (2021 Cowboys and 2018 Chiefs).

Bengals ATS: 4-2
O/U: 1-5
What we cognize astir the Bengals: A Bengals crippled went implicit for the archetypal clip past week and they improved to 14-4 ATS successful their past 18 games that went implicit the number.

Cleveland Browns astatine Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 46.5)

Browns ATS: 2-4
O/U: 5-1
What we cognize astir the Browns: When it goes sideways for Cleveland it truly goes sideways. Last week's 38-15 nonaccomplishment to New Engalnd (as a 2.5-point favorite) was the 5th clip since the opening of past play that the Browns screen borderline was -25 oregon worse.

Ravens ATS: 2-3-1
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Ravens: The Ravens person failed to screen 3 consecutive games and each 3 of those contests person gone nether the total.

Indianapolis Colts astatine Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)

Colts ATS: 3-3
O/U: 1-5
What we cognize astir the Colts: Not one, not 2 ...but six. Six consecutive Colts roadworthy games person gone nether the full (four of those games going nether the projected full by astatine slightest 10 points).

Titans ATS: 3-2
O/U: 2-3
What we cognize astir the Titans: The Titans covered 4 consecutive against the part rival Colts, winning 3 of those games outright arsenic an underdog.

Detroit Lions astatine Dallas Cowboys (-7, 48.5)

Lions ATS: 3-2
O/U: 4-1
What we cognize astir the Lions: The Lions instrumentality from their bye and are looking to debar their archetypal 3 crippled ATS losing streak since Weeks 14-16 of the 2019 season.

Cowboys ATS: 4-2
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Cowboys: How 'bout them unders? Four consecutive Dallas location games person gone nether the projected full by astatine slightest 5 points.

Green Bay Packers astatine Washington Commanders

Packers ATS: 2-4
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Packers: The Packers are 8-13 ATS implicit their past 21 games erstwhile favored by astatine slightest 7 points (28-11 ATS successful each different instances during the regular play implicit that stretch).

Commanders ATS: 2-4
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Commanders: That's present 4 consecutive unders successful Washington games, with the mean full implicit that agelong coming successful 11.6 points nether the projection.

New York Giants astatine Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 42.5)

Giants ATS: 5-1
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Giants: The Giants are the archetypal squad to spell 4-0 outright arsenic an underdog successful a team's archetypal six games of a play since the 2012 Seahawks did so.

Jaguars ATS: 2-4
O/U: 4-2
What we cognize astir the Jaguars: Each of Jacksonville's past 14 games person seen the covering squad besides triumph outright.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5, 40.5) astatine Carolina Panthers

Buccaneers ATS: 2-4
O/U: 1-5
What we cognize astir the Buccaneers: The Bucs person dropped 4 consecutive ATS. In their erstwhile 12 games (playoffs included), they were 9-3 ATS.

Panthers ATS: 1-5
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Panthers: The Panthers whitethorn lone beryllium 1-5 ATS this season, but 3 of those losses, including past week astatine the Rams, person seen them neglect to screen by little than 5 points. A accordant slice that often requires immoderate sweat to get there.

Sun 4:05PM

Houston Texans astatine Las Vegas Raiders (-7, 45.5)

Texans ATS: 3-1-1
O/U: 2-3
What we cognize astir the Texans: Under tickets person cashed successful 8 of Houston's past 10 roadworthy games (last roadworthy crippled was a 13-6 triumph successful Jacksonville with a 43.5-point over/under).

Raiders ATS: 2-3
O/U: 3-1-1
What we cognize astir the Raiders: The Raiders are coming disconnected of their bye looking for a 4th consecutive implicit (overs came done successful conscionable 3 of 10 games anterior to this caller run).

New York Jets astatine Denver Broncos

Jets ATS: 4-2
O/U: 3-3
What we cognize astir the Jets: The astir awesome 2 crippled tally successful caller memory? The Jets person covered their past 2 games by a full of 50.5 points, outscoring opponents 67-27 successful the process.

Broncos ATS: 2-4
O/U: 1-5
What we cognize astir the Broncos: Russell Wilson's squad is 2-8-1 ATS successful the past 11 games they've played connected abbreviated rest, thing that volition beryllium the lawsuit this play aft they wrapped up Week 6 successful Los Angeles connected Monday night.

Sun 4:25PM

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 48.5) astatine San Francisco 49ers

Chiefs ATS: 2-4
O/U: 3-3
What we cognize astir the Chiefs: The Chiefs person covered 7 of their past 10 regular play games erstwhile the over/under is little than 50 points.

49ers ATS: 3-3
O/U: 1-5
What we cognize astir the 49ers: Five of six 49er games this play person had a screen borderline of astatine slightest 11.5 points.

Seattle Seahawks astatine Los Angeles Chargers

Seahawks ATS: 3-3
O/U: 3-3
What we cognize astir the Seahawks: Seattle has some scored AND allowed astatine slightest 30 points successful 3 of their past 4 roadworthy games.

Chargers ATS: 4-2
O/U: 3-3
What we cognize astir the Chargers: The Bolts person covered 3 of 4 games successful the Justin Herbert epoch erstwhile playing connected abbreviated remainder (overs are besides 3-1).

Sun 8:20PM

Pittsburgh Steelers astatine Miami Dolphins (-7, 44)

Steelers ATS: 2-3-1
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Steelers: The Steelers are conscionable 2-5 ATS successful their past 7 roadworthy games, with 3 of those losses seeing them neglect to screen by astatine slightest 16 points.

Dolphins ATS: 3-3
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Dolphins: That's 3 consecutive unders successful Miami games and the squad full bettors person been having a tract time arsenic Miami has been held to 21 oregon less points successful 5 of six weeks. It indispensable beryllium a metropolis thing, arsenic the Marlins had a historical scoring drought during the shot regular season.

Mon 8:15PM

Chicago Bears astatine New England Patriots (-7.5, 39.5)

Bears ATS: 2-3-1
O/U: 2-4
What we cognize astir the Bears: The Bears get the closest happening to a 2nd bye: archetypal crippled successful Week 6 and the past 1 successful Week 7. But is that good? Da Bears are 3-11 ATS successful their past 14 games connected extended rest.

Patriots ATS: 3-2-1
O/U: 3-3
What we cognize astir the Patriots: The Pats are conscionable 2-7 ATS successful the station Tom Brady epoch erstwhile playing connected extended rest.