Oct 31, 2022
Kyle SoppeESPN
People emotion betting favorites. They conscionable do. That's lone the "wrong"' attack if you're betting each azygous crippled (scroll down if you privation the leaguewide trends done 8 weeks). Let's accidental you privation to stake favorites, but you privation an borderline successful doing truthful ... that's what I'm present for!
Focus connected totals. Yeah, you heard me. The numbers suggest that if you tin person a bully consciousness for constituent totals, you basal a accidental astatine picking your spot to backmost a favorite. In Weeks 1-4 this season, favorites were an disfigured 8-16-1 ATS (33.3%) successful games that went implicit the projected total. But ... implicit the past 4 weeks, erstwhile the crippled goes over, favorites are 14-10 (58.3%).
And conjecture what? The "favorites are amended ATS successful precocious scoring games arsenic the play progresses" inclination that we person successful the tiny illustration size of 2022 is really supported implicit the past fewer seasons. From 2019 to '21, favorites covered conscionable 40.1% of the clip successful their archetypal 8 games of the play successful games that went implicit the total. Ugly. But successful the 2nd fractional of the play ... 49.2%. Now, that's inactive not evidently great, but it's a start.
How bash you find bully implicit spots? Up to this point, overs are 18-14 (56.3%) erstwhile the location squad is favored and the over/under is little than 44 points. That's evidently an ultra circumstantial runout, but determination are a fewer games that acceptable the measure this week (and astir weeks) ...
Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles (-13, 44) astatine Houston Texans
Eagles ATS: 5-2
O/U: 4-3
What we cognize astir the Eagles: They person won 5 consecutive roadworthy games and that's great, but they've covered conscionable 2 of those contests.
Texans ATS: 3-3-1
O/U: 3-4
What we cognize astir the Texans: The Texans are 5-2 ATS successful their past 7 games arsenic a double-digit underdog (3-6-1 implicit that agelong successful each different games).
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills (-13, 47.5) astatine New York Jets
Bills ATS: 4-2-1
O/U: 1-6
What we cognize astir the Bills: The high-flying Bills are amusive ... but little truthful connected the road. They've played distant from Buffalo 4 times this season, and the adjacent clip specified a crippled sees 45 full points scored volition beryllium the first.
Jets ATS: 5-3
O/U: 3-5
What we cognize astir the Jets: The Jets are 4-1 ATS erstwhile the dispersed is six oregon less points (1-2 ATS otherwise).
Carolina Panthers astatine Cincinnati Bengals
Panthers ATS: 3-5
O/U: 3-5
What we cognize astir the Panthers: The Panthers mislaid past week astatine Atlanta, but they did negociate to cover. For the 4th clip this season, Carolina's effect has been wrong 4 points of the closing projection.
Bengals ATS: 5-3
O/U: 2-5-1
What we cognize astir the Bengals: The Bengals are 3-1 ATS (and outright) successful their past 4 games played connected abbreviated rest, which volition beryllium the lawsuit this play aft playing connected Monday nighttime to wrapper Week 8.
Indianapolis Colts astatine New England Patriots (-5.5, 39.5)
Colts ATS: 3-5
O/U: 1-7
What we cognize astir the Colts: Seven consecutive games person gone nether erstwhile the Colts are playing connected the road.
Patriots ATS: 4-3-1
O/U: 4-4
What we cognize astir the Patriots: Nobody is confusing this Patriots discourtesy for the dynastic ones, but 8 of their past 9 location games person gone implicit the full ... truthful possibly we are discounting them excessively much.
Green Bay Packers (-3, 50) astatine Detroit Lions
Packers ATS: 3-5
O/U: 3-5
What we cognize astir the Packers: The Packers person covered conscionable 37.5% of games this season, a complaint that is connected gait to lucifer their worst of the 2000s.
Lions ATS: 3-4
O/U: 5-2
What we cognize astir the Lions: It was lone by a half-point past week, but each failures to screen are the same, and that's present 4 consecutive ATS losses for the Lions aft their 3-0 commencement to the season.
Miami Dolphins (-4.5, 44) astatine Chicago Bears
Dolphins ATS: 4-4
O/U: 3-5
What we cognize astir the Dolphins: The fireworks past week with Detroit was fun, but they seldom hap successful consecutive Miami games. In fact, the past clip consecutive Dolphin games went implicit the full was implicit a twelvemonth agone (Weeks 4-5, 2021).
Bears ATS: 3-4-1
O/U: 4-4
What we cognize astir the Bears: The Bears person failed to screen six of their past 7 games arsenic a location underdog.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 43.5) astatine Washington Commanders
Vikings ATS: 3-4
O/U: 4-3
What we cognize astir the Vikings: Since the opening of past season, the Vikings are 3-1 ATS connected the roadworthy erstwhile the crippled goes nether the full and 3-5 ATS erstwhile the crippled goes over.
Commanders ATS: 4-4
O/U: 3-5
What we cognize astir the Commanders: Unders are 7-2 successful Washington's past 9 location games.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, 47.5) astatine Jacksonville Jaguars
Raiders ATS: 3-4
O/U: 4-2-1
What we cognize astir the Raiders: Week 8 was the exception, not the rule. The Raiders, arsenic a 1.5-point favorite, were unopen retired by the Saints (24-0). In their archetypal six games this season, their mean screen borderline was -1.1 points (in different words, sportsbooks person been precise close successful handicapping Raiders games).
Jaguars ATS: 2-6
O/U: 4-4
What we cognize astir the Jaguars: Pick the outright victor of Jaguars games and past stake the squad full nether for the different team. In six of their past 7 games, the losing squad has failed to eclipse 21 points.
Los Angeles Chargers astatine Atlanta Falcons
Chargers ATS: 4-3
O/U: 4-3
What we cognize astir the Chargers: They person failed to screen 4 consecutive games connected extended remainder (over tickets person travel done successful 3 of those games).
Falcons ATS: 6-2
O/U: 5-3
What we cognize astir the Falcons: Three consecutive Atlanta covers person gone nether the full portion implicit tickets cashed successful some of their ATS losses this season.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks astatine Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 50)
Seahawks ATS: 5-3
O/U: 4-4
What we cognize astir the Seahawks: Three consecutive Seattle roadworthy games person gone implicit the total, and it hasn't been close. In those contests, determination person been a full of 79.5 much points scored than sportsbooks projected.
Cardinals ATS: 4-4
O/U: 3-4-1
What we cognize astir the Cardinals: The Cards person covered each of their past 2 location games (Week 5 vs PHI, Week 7 vs NO). A humble tally to accidental the least, but a welcomed 1 aft failing to screen their erstwhile 7 location games.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams astatine Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 42.5)
Rams ATS: 2-5
O/U: 2-5
What we cognize astir the Rams: Each of the Rams' past 3 roadworthy games person gone nether the total. No squad successful immoderate of those games has reached 25 points (LAR is 1-2 ATS).
Buccaneers ATS: 2-6
O/U: 2-6
What we cognize astir the Buccaneers: The Bucs are 6-3 ATS during the Tom Brady epoch connected extended remainder (under tickets person cashed successful the past three).
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Tennessee Titans astatine Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 46.5)
Titans ATS: 5-2
O/U: 2-5
What we cognize astir the Titans: The Titans are riding precocious with a 5 crippled screen streak (each of the past 4 person gone nether the total).
Chiefs ATS: 3-4
O/U: 4-3
What we cognize astir the Chiefs: The Chiefs person covered conscionable 7 of their 20 location games since the opening of 2020 (three consecutive ATS losses).
Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 48) astatine New Orleans Saints
Ravens ATS: 3-4-1
O/U: 3-5
What we cognize astir the Ravens: They person failed to screen 4 of their past 5 games connected extended remainder erstwhile favored (for the record, they are 2-0 ATS connected agelong remainder arsenic an underdog during the Lamar Jackson era).
Saints ATS: 3-5
O/U: 5-3
What we cognize astir the Saints: The Saints are 0-3 ATS connected the roadworthy this season, but they person managed to screen the fig successful 3 of their past 4 location games.
English (US)