Everything you need to know before the first College Football Playoff rankings

GRAPEVINE, Texas -- It ne'er fails.

Somebody volition beryllium angry. Maybe 2 somebodies. TCU? Clemson? Everyone extracurricular the SEC East and Big Ten East?

When 13 radical are sequestered astir a array for a time and a fractional to benignant retired what assemblage shot fans person been arguing implicit for weeks, there's bound to beryllium immoderate controversy, particularly during a play successful which there's not a clear-cut No. 1 squad -- astatine slightest not yet. That's hardly the lone question facing this committee arsenic it convenes for the archetypal clip this play to merchandise its archetypal of six play rankings Tuesday nighttime (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Ohio State, Georgia and Tennessee volition jockey for No. 1 arsenic committee members measurement what they spot connected movie with résumés. They volition person to determine if they should fertile a one-loss squad (Alabama? Oregon?) up of an undefeated squad (TCU? Clemson?).

Who are these radical with each that power?

This year's committee comprises 8 radical who person collegiate playing experience, including immoderate sitting diversion directors, 2 members of the College Football Hall of Fame (former Nebraska defender Will Shields and erstwhile manager Joe Taylor) and 2 erstwhile Division I caput coaches (Taylor and Jim Grobe). There is 1 woman: erstwhile USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.

Selection committee members are rotated each 3 years, truthful what mightiness person been important to past year's radical could alteration this play with 4 caller faces successful the room. They are directed done written protocol to see spot of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against communal opponents. Conference championships are the last portion of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based lone connected what they've done to date.

So what teams person done the astir to impressment the committee truthful far? Here's what to look for successful the archetypal ranking, what we could larn astir the preferences of this radical and however it apt volition get astatine its last verdict.

Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks astatine what will hap Tuesday nighttime arsenic opposed to what should happen, and Chris Low provides a past acquisition connected however the archetypal CFP rankings each twelvemonth person compared with the last rankings.

Seven cardinal questions to ticker for

1. What matters more, oculus trial oregon résumé? If docket spot is the apical priority, Tennessee could beryllium No. 1 and conscionable astir everyone other volition get dinged for it -- adjacent Georgia. Aside from Oregon, Georgia's FBS opponents are a combined 22-26, with lone South Carolina (5-3) supra .500. (Counterpoint: But the Dawgs look truthful good!) Nobody has a amended triumph than the Vols, who bushed Alabama and are No. 1 successful the state successful ESPN's spot of grounds metric, which says the mean top-25 squad would person conscionable an 8% accidental of achieving the aforesaid 8-0 grounds against Tennessee's schedule. Undefeated Clemson besides could beryllium rewarded for playing a beardown docket truthful far, arsenic the Tigers person 3 wins against imaginable CFP top-25 teams (NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest). But those wins each were by constrictive margins.

The enactment committee typically loves convincing wins, and cipher successful the state has beaten teams arsenic soundly arsenic the Buckeyes, who pb the FBS with a points per crippled differential of plus-32. Based connected that, the Buckeyes could person a lawsuit for No. 1. Ohio State's champion wins are against Notre Dame (5-3) and Penn State (6-2). Beyond that, Ohio State hasn't beaten a Power 5 hostile with a winning record, and the Buckeyes' different Big Ten opponents person a combined grounds of 15-17. Michigan's champion wins are against Maryland and Penn State. The Wolverines don't person a Power 5 nonconference win, and the nonconference teams they bushed -- Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn -- are a combined 8-18.

2. How overmuch respect does the committee person for the Big 12 and Pac-12? There are 5 Power 5 conferences, but the SEC and Big Ten could beryllium the lone 2 represented successful the archetypal apical four. That volition yet alteration due to the fact that Georgia and Tennessee look each different Saturday, and Ohio State and Michigan play successful the regular-season finale. Those results volition unfastened a door, but however acold volition the Big 12 and Pac-12 person to climb? Oregon has made a lawsuit to beryllium the Pac-12's highest-ranked team, but UCLA and USC besides person 1 loss. If immoderate of these teams are little than No. 16, they could beryllium successful occupation due to the fact that nary squad has ever been ranked little than No. 16 and made it to the playoff. TCU is the Big 12's lone undefeated team, but everyone other successful the league has astatine slightest 2 losses.

3. Will immoderate one-loss teams beryllium ranked up of undefeated teams? If undefeated Clemson and TCU are ranked down one-loss Alabama and/or Oregon, they don't request to panic -- astatine slightest not yet. Winning a league title crippled tin alteration a team's presumption dramatically. But that would beryllium an denotation that neither squad has much, if any, borderline for error. Being a one-loss league champion mightiness not beryllium bully capable for them this season. Clemson travels to Notre Dame connected Saturday for what could beryllium a tricky game, and inactive faces rival South Carolina. TCU has to spell connected the roadworthy to look Baylor and Texas. If they are down a one-loss squad from the start, the unit to enactment undefeated volition rise.

4. Where are the contenders' opponents ranked? The enactment committee wants to cognize however galore wins a squad has against top-25 opponents -- their apical 25. Forget the Associated Press Top 25, and what you deliberation were wins against ranked opponents (sorry, TCU). Those determinations statesman now. Is beating Maryland (6-2) a top-25 triumph for Michigan? Can three-loss Notre Dame sneak into the rankings and assistance Ohio State's case? Is three-loss Kentucky inactive a top-25 triumph for Tennessee? Is Georgia's triumph against Oregon its lone triumph implicit a ranked opponent? How awesome is Clemson's résumé aft Wake Forest and Syracuse some mislaid Saturday? Does Alabama person any wins against ranked opponents? Its champion wins are against Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi State, each of whom person 3 losses. And if nary of the Tide's opponents are ranked, scroll backmost up to No. 1 connected this database and accidental a prayer.

5. Which two-loss teams inactive person a chance? Watch wherever LSU and Utah are ranked due to the fact that they some tin decorativeness arsenic two-loss league champions. Teams ranked extracurricular the archetypal apical 10 person reached the playoff lone doubly (2014 Ohio State, which was No. 16, and 2015 Oklahoma, which was No. 15) and nary two-loss squad has ever made the cut. But that doesn't mean it can't happen, particularly if LSU defeats Alabama connected Saturday and Georgia oregon Tennessee successful the SEC title game. (What nonaccomplishment to Florida State?!) Utah mislaid its play opener to Florida but has lone 1 league nonaccomplishment and tin inactive triumph the Pac-12.

6. How important is defense? If the enactment committee is wowed by large plays connected offense, TCU, Tennessee and Ohio State volition beryllium held successful precocious regard. If it is searching for teams playing astatine an elite level connected some sides of the ball, the excavation shrinks considerably. Georgia and Michigan are among the fewer teams playing championship-caliber defense. The Dawgs are No. 2 successful the FBS, allowing lone 10.5 points per game, and Michigan is close down them, allowing 11.5. The Vols played their astir implicit crippled of the play Saturday, shutting down Kentucky, but it was the archetypal clip this play their defence was the story, and TCU's defence is tied for No. 73 successful the country, allowing 27.3 points per game.

7. Which instrumentality basal volition beryllium angriest? Best guess, the Horned Frogs. TCU is successful the midst of a peculiar play nether first-year manager Sonny Dykes, and the explosive discourtesy is morganatic -- its 12 touchdowns of astatine slightest 50 yards pb the FBS. TCU has a wont of playing from behind, though, successful ample portion due to the fact that the defence continues to let a batch of first-half points (more than 20 successful each of the past 3 games). TCU is undefeated, but that mightiness not beryllium capable for it to onshore a top-four spot.

What the committee volition -- and should -- do

The play CFP rankings are designed for statement and disagreement. They amusement wherever the enactment committee, based connected the criteria it uses, thinks teams belong. But we've each got our opinions astir wherever teams beryllium successful the rankings. Before each release, I'll analyse wherever teams volition beryllium ranked and wherever they should be ranked. Think of this arsenic an Oscars-style audit of the CFP's apical 25.

What the CFP enactment committee volition do: Rank Clemson up of TCU

What the CFP enactment committee should do: Rank TCU up of Clemson

Both Clemson and TCU are résumé teams much than world-beaters. Clemson has 3 six-point wins and different by 10. TCU has 5 wins by 10 points oregon fewer. Clemson has 3 wins implicit teams ranked successful the AP canvass astatine the clip of the game, portion TCU has four.

The play constituent differentials are astir identical: 138 for Clemson, 136 for TCU.

Don't beryllium swayed by the brands and CFP history. These teams are incredibly close, but TCU's discourtesy is the lone consistently ascendant portion connected either squad. Clemson has had immoderate fluctuation connected some sides of the ball. At times, Clemson's defence looks similar a radical filled with aboriginal NFL players. But the Tigers had fewer answers for Wake Forest, and allowed 28 archetypal downs and 460 yards to Florida State. Clemson backmost DJ Uiagalelei has improved from past play but boasts lone 1 300-yard passing show and was benched successful a come-from-behind triumph implicit Syracuse.

TCU has scored 38 points oregon much successful each crippled and averaged 7.6 yards per play, astir 2 yards amended than Clemson (5.8). The Frogs person eclipsed 400 yards successful each crippled and 450 successful each but one. While Uiagalelei's starter presumption remains tenuous, TCU backmost Max Duggan has gone from a second-stringer to statesman the play to a Heisman Trophy contender, passing for 2,212 yards with 22 touchdowns and lone 2 interceptions. TCU's defence has been acold from dominant, but first-year coordinator Joe Gillespie has been fantabulous with in-game adjustments, and opponents mean conscionable 3.8 yards per rush.

Let's look astatine the résumés. Two of Clemson's champion 3 wins came against teams that were exposed Saturday (Wake Forest against Louisville, Syracuse against Notre Dame). TCU's wins implicit the Oklahoma schools don't look arsenic beardown arsenic they erstwhile did, though Oklahoma State's wide illustration shouldn't beryllium written disconnected contempt its no-show astatine Kansas State. Speaking of the Wildcats, TCU's triumph implicit them mightiness beryllium the azygous champion triumph betwixt the teams.

Again, it's close. But if these teams are to beryllium evaluated blindly, arsenic they should be, TCU deserves the edge. -- Adam Rittenberg

What the archetypal ranking truly means

Over the archetypal 8 years of the four-team format, 19 of the 32 teams (59%) that were successful the apical 4 successful the archetypal rankings ended up successful the playoff. That leaves country for teams extracurricular Tuesday's apical 4 to onshore a spot successful the semifinals connected New Year's Eve.

The lowest-ranked teams successful the archetypal rankings to marque it to the last 4 are Ohio State successful 2014, erstwhile the Buckeyes started astatine No. 16, and Oklahoma successful 2015, erstwhile the Sooners started astatine No. 15. Those are the lone teams that were extracurricular the apical 10 of the archetypal CFP rankings to marque that year's playoff.

On the different extremity of the scale, 7 of the 8 No. 1 teams successful the archetypal CFP rankings and 14 of the 16 teams initially ranked successful the apical 2 person reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State successful 2014 and No. 2 LSU successful 2015.

Only once, successful 2020, did each of the apical 4 teams successful the archetypal rankings marque it to the playoff.

Here's a year-by-year look astatine the apical 4 successful the archetypal rankings, wherever those teams landed successful the last rankings and the cardinal elements that shaped each year's race.

2021

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Georgia (third successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (first successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Michigan State (10th successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Oregon (14th successful last ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh successful archetypal ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)

Michigan State seemed to beryllium successful large signifier aft beating Michigan 37-33 connected Oct. 30 to unafraid the No. 3 spot successful the archetypal rankings. But that didn't last. The Spartans mislaid 40-29 the adjacent week astatine Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State 2 weeks aft that. And the Wolverines picked up steam lone aft their adjacent nonaccomplishment successful East Lansing. They reeled disconnected 5 consecutive victories, including a 42-27 triumph implicit Ohio State (their archetypal successful the bid successful 10 years), and earned their archetypal playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular play to go the archetypal Group of 5 squad to marque the playoff and benefitted from Oregon losing doubly to Utah successful the last 3 weeks.

2020

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (first successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: Notre Dame (fourth successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Clemson (second successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Ohio State (third successful last ranking)

The enactment committee's apical 4 remained intact successful the last rankings, though Texas A&M mislaid conscionable 1 crippled (to Alabama) playing an all-SEC docket during the shortened COVID-19 play and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot implicit a Notre Dame squad that mislaid by 24 points to Clemson successful the ACC title game.

2019

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Ohio State (second successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: LSU (first successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (13th successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Penn State (10th successful last ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth successful archetypal ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)

Alabama transportation backmost Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 nonaccomplishment astatine Kansas State connected Oct. 26 to triumph its adjacent 5 games, including a 30-23 overtime triumph against Baylor successful the Big 12 title game, to ascent up to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the erstwhile 4 weeks but slipped to No. 5 successful the last rankings aft losing 37-10 to LSU successful the SEC title game.

2018

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (first successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: Clemson (second successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: LSU (11th successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Notre Dame (third successful last ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh successful archetypal ranking)

Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a large relation successful however the last 2018 playoff rankings shook out, lone this clip helium was playing for Alabama. Hurts came disconnected the seat for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to walk for a touchdown and tally for different successful rallying Alabama past Georgia successful the 4th fourth for a 35-28 triumph successful the SEC title game. That nonaccomplishment outgo the Dawgs a spot successful the playoff, arsenic they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 successful the last rankings. It besides cleared the mode for Oklahoma to determination from No. 5 to No. 4 aft beating Texas successful the Big 12 title crippled for its seventh consecutive win.

2017

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Georgia (third successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (fourth successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Notre Dame (14th successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Clemson (first successful last ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth successful archetypal ranking)

The squad that didn't marque the playoff successful 2017 that astir shaped the tract was Auburn. In a span of 3 weeks to extremity the regular season, Auburn bushed No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to determination to No. 2 successful the next-to-last rankings contempt having 2 losses. But successful a rematch with Georgia successful the SEC title game, Auburn mislaid 28-7 to the Dawgs, which paved the mode for some Alabama and Georgia to determination backmost into the apical 4 and yet play for the nationalist championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week earlier successful the committee's rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC rubric game, the Tigers would person been the lone two-loss squad ever to marque the playoff field.

2016

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (first successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: Clemson (second successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Michigan (sixth successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Texas A&M (did not marque last ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth successful archetypal ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)

Penn State fans inactive grimace implicit this one. The Nittany Lions finished 1 spot retired of the playoff, No. 5 successful the last rankings. That's contempt beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their past 9 games, including a 38-31 triumph implicit Wisconsin successful the Big Ten title game. Ohio State was the Big Ten squad that made the playoff, though, arsenic the Buckeyes had conscionable 1 nonaccomplishment compared to the Nittany Lions' 2 losses. Eventual nationalist champion Clemson survived a 43-42 location nonaccomplishment to Pittsburgh connected Nov. 12 to decorativeness No. 2 successful the last rankings. Pitt was unranked astatine the clip of the crippled but was No. 23 successful the committee's last rankings.

2015

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Clemson (first successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: LSU (20th successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Ohio State (seventh successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Alabama (second successful last ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh successful archetypal ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)

One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff epoch was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard tract extremity arsenic clip expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 triumph implicit Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their adjacent two, including a 16-13 triumph implicit Iowa successful the Big Ten title game, to marque the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State crippled was fundamentally a play-in, arsenic the Hawkeyes came successful astatine No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 successful the committee's rankings. Oklahoma made its large determination up from No. 15 aft beating No. 6 Baylor connected the roadworthy Nov. 14, past hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 2 weeks aboriginal to triumph the Big 12 championship.

2014

No. 1 successful archetypal ranking: Mississippi State (seventh successful last ranking)

No. 2 successful archetypal ranking: Florida State (third successful last ranking)

No. 3 successful archetypal ranking: Auburn (19th successful last ranking)

No. 4 successful archetypal ranking: Ole Miss (ninth successful last ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth successful archetypal ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)

Three SEC teams successful the archetypal playoff rankings? The remainder of the assemblage shot satellite was fuming, but nary of the 3 ended up successful the last four. Eventual nationalist champion Ohio State was the comeback communicative that season. The Buckeyes mislaid successful Week 2 astatine location by 2 touchdowns to a Virginia Tech squad that mislaid six games. Ohio State besides mislaid a brace of quarterbacks to injury, Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett, but clawed backmost to unafraid the No. 4 spot successful the last rankings, moving up from No. 5 aft a 59-0 drubbing connected Wisconsin successful the Big Ten title game. Nobody was much upset that play than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn't person a title crippled and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 successful the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular play by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State squad 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a stock of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn't capable to impressment the committee arsenic TCU someway fell to No. 6 successful the last rankings. -- Chris Low