Fetterman vs. Oz: Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Election Results 2022 - The New York Times

1 year ago 40

The polls conscionable closed successful Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. 10m ago
The polls are present closed successful Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and respective different states. 1h ago
The polls conscionable closed successful Arkansas. 1h ago
Polls conscionable closed successful 19 states and Washington, D.C. Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. 2h ago
The polls conscionable closed successful North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. 2h ago
The polls are present closed successful Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and successful parts of Florida and New Hampshire. 3h ago
The archetypal polls are closing successful Indiana and Kentucky. 4h ago


Democrat Dem.	1,258,141	51.6%
Republican Rep.	1,124,293	46.1%
Libertarian Lib.	32,599	1.3%
2,439,797

Live forecast

Our champion estimation is that the contention is simply a tossup.

This is our champion estimation for the result of this race, based connected the places that person reported votes truthful far. Jump to the forecast

When to expect results

Officials are not permitted to statesman processing message ballots earlier Election Day, and the state’s apical predetermination authoritative said it would astir apt instrumentality respective days for afloat unofficial results to beryllium available. Early returns could springiness a misleading impression of a ample Republican vantage earlier each message ballots are counted. Learn much astir the timing of results ›

Circle size is proportional to the magnitude each county’s leading campaigner is ahead.

Estimated votes remaining

Estimated remaining votes

Fetterman +35	417,534	73%	156,000
Fetterman +67	172,985	32%	369,000
Fetterman +60	129,791	31%	287,000
Oz +8	104,849	64%	60,000
Fetterman +15	88,359	94%	5,000
Fetterman +9	79,706	59%	55,000
Oz +22	77,824	45%	95,000
Fetterman +6	73,932	38%	120,000
Oz +19	69,732	31%	157,000
Oz +14	63,616	65%	34,000
Fetterman +8	61,488	53%	56,000
Fetterman +40	56,811	40%	86,000
Fetterman +24	54,304	21%	205,000
Oz +3	52,723	48%	58,000
Oz +54	51,435	78%	15,000
Oz +44	46,200	79%	13,000
Oz +38	45,966	>95%	<2,500
Fetterman +37	43,666	37%	73,000
Fetterman +17	42,445	70%	18,000
Fetterman +61	39,851	12%	284,000
Oz +40	37,002	70%	16,000
Oz +41	33,783	35%	62,000
Oz +31	32,040	91%	3,000
Oz +50	31,719	93%	2,000
Oz +20	25,260	33%	51,000
Oz +8	24,733	42%	34,000
Oz +46	24,431	52%	23,000
Fetterman +68	22,882	9%	239,000
Oz +22	22,583	48%	24,000
Oz +8	22,426	60%	15,000
Oz +37	21,412	78%	6,000
Oz +41	21,116	64%	12,000
Oz +39	20,648	41%	30,000
Oz +37	19,978	77%	6,000
Oz +38	18,566	75%	6,000
Oz +51	17,003	90%	2,000
Oz +5	15,713	62%	10,000
Oz +41	15,335	>95%	800
Oz +43	14,848	94%	1,000
Oz +45	14,711	84%	3,000
Oz +32	14,396	42%	20,000
Oz +37	13,588	>95%	<700
Oz +56	13,569	72%	5,000
Oz +44	13,147	75%	4,000
Oz +46	13,006	59%	9,000
Oz +17	12,689	55%	10,000
Oz +9	12,562	77%	4,000
Oz +8	12,173	19%	51,000
Oz +38	12,120	21%	46,000
Oz +52	11,998	40%	18,000
Oz +28	11,754	>95%	<600
Oz +26	11,309	78%	3,000
Oz +30	11,083	61%	7,000
Oz +46	10,460	73%	4,000
Oz +53	9,711	>95%	<500
Oz +39	8,037	51%	8,000
Oz +68	6,193	93%	400
Fetterman +35	2,736	17%	14,000
Oz +33	2,349	76%	750
Oz +34	2,181	>95%	<100
Oz +59	2,088	10%	19,000
Oz +52	1,869	6%	31,000
Oz +47	1,373	68%	650
—	0	0%	23,000
—	0	0%	124,000
—	0	0%	7,900
—	0	0%	7,600

Our champion estimation is that the contention is simply a tossup.

How our estimated borderline has changed truthful far

The lines beneath amusement however the reported borderline (dashed line) compares with our estimated last borderline (solid enactment surrounded by an estimation of uncertainty.) As a rule, erstwhile our estimated borderline is dependable successful the beingness of caller ballot data, our forecast is much trustworthy.

Est. margin

Best guess

50% of outcomes

95%

Estimated stock of full votes reported

How votes comparison with 2020

Oz +38	R+41	45,966	>95%
Oz +41	R+51	15,335	>95%
Oz +37	R+45	13,588	>95%
Oz +28	R+35	11,754	>95%
Oz +53	R+61	9,711	>95%
Oz +34	R+44	2,181	>95%

Analyzing the vote

Your usher to the midterm results, from Times reporters

The Needle ›

How to work The Needle charts

These charts amusement however the reported ballot borderline (the dashed line) compares with our estimated last borderline (the coagulated line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) implicit time. When reported information comes successful that is not what we expected, our exemplary volition update and incorporated this caller data. — Lazaro Gamio 4m ago
Virginia 7th District ›

Fast counting successful agrarian Virginia counties boosts Vega, Republican candidate

Rural counties successful Virginia’s 7th territory are counting votes much rapidly than its astir populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. It’s giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an borderline implicit incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could beryllium temporary. Here’s wherever we deliberation votes remain. — Kennedy Elliott 10m ago
When polls close ›

Polls adjacent astatine 10 p.m. Eastern successful 5 states

Nevada is the past large plaything authorities of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, 3 House seats, politician and caput of state. There is besides an unexpectedly competitory Senate contention successful Utah betwixt Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. — Maggie Astor 16m ago
Florida Governor ›

Shift to the close successful Florida

The displacement to the close has been melodramatic among counties successful Florida reporting astir each their votes. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden successful 2020 shifted 16 points to the close successful the contention for governor, and 12 points successful the Senate race. — Lazaro Gamio 41m ago
When polls close ›

Polls adjacent astatine 9 p.m. Eastern successful 10 states

Arizona has aggregate races featuring Republicans who person questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and determination is simply a adjacent contention for governor. — Maggie Astor 1h ago
Ohio Senate ›

Another authorities with misleading aboriginal returns: Ohio

Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Vance successful the returns, but astir each of the results are aboriginal votes, which we expect to disproportionately favour Democrats. Here’s wherever we deliberation votes remain. — Alicia Parlapiano 1h ago
Georgia Senate ›

Why aboriginal results whitethorn beryllium misleading successful Georgia

Senator Raphael Warnock is retired with an aboriginal pb successful Georgia, but it could each beryllium conscionable a mirage. Most of the ballot reporting truthful acold is early, and Democrats are expected to triumph those votes by a ample margin. — Nate Cohn 1h ago
The Needle ›

The NYT Needle is live

The Times’s predetermination forecast is present running. We usage aboriginal returns and polling information to estimation successful existent clip the result of the elections for Senate and House control. Here’s however it works › — Nate Cohn 2h ago
When polls close ›

Polls adjacent astatine 8 p.m. Eastern successful 19 states and D.C.

Pennsylvania is location to a adjacent Senate contention betwixt Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Michiganders are voting connected termination rights. And Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is successful a choky re-election race, arsenic is Gov. Janet Mills of Maine. — Maggie Astor 2h ago
When polls close ›

Polls adjacent astatine 7:30 p.m. Eastern successful 3 states

Republicans are favored to triumph the unfastened Senate races successful North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats person a better-than-expected day, these are 2 places we mightiness spot grounds of it. We’ll besides beryllium watching competitory House races successful N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. — Maggie Astor 2h ago
Florida Governor ›

Early ballot successful Miami shows Republican strength

Gov. Ron DeSantis winning the aboriginal ballot successful Miami-Dade County — which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points conscionable six years agone — is yet different motion of increasing Republican spot among Hispanic voters. — Nate Cohn 2h ago
When polls close ›

Polls adjacent astatine 7 p.m. Eastern successful six states

The Georgia Senate race, which could spell to a Dec. 6 runoff, could find which enactment controls the chamber. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents successful the 2nd and 7th districts whitethorn connection aboriginal indications of however the enactment volition fare successful House races overall. — Maggie Astor 3h ago
U.S. House ›

What’s astatine involvement successful the House

Republicans indispensable triumph conscionable 19 competitory seats to retake bulk power from the Democrats. To clasp power of the House, Democrats indispensable triumph 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to triumph astir easily). — Alicia Parlapiano 3h ago
When polls close ›

First polls adjacent astatine 6 p.m. Eastern successful Kentucky and Indiana

In Kentucky, voters volition determine whether to o.k. a law amendment that would efficaciously guarantee the implementation of a near-total termination ban. In Indiana, a House contention successful the 1st territory leans Democratic, but, if the spot were to flip, it could beryllium an aboriginal motion of a reddish wave. — Maggie Astor 4h ago
U.S. Senate ›

What’s astatine involvement successful the Senate

If Democrats clasp onto 2 seats leaning their way, they volition request to triumph 3 further tossup seats to support power of the Senate. Republicans would request conscionable 2 tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. — Lazaro Gamio 4h ago
Results timing ›

Results successful cardinal Senate races could instrumentality awhile

Six of the 8 astir competitory Senate races are successful states that did not telephone a victor successful the statesmanlike contention until aft predetermination night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What we expect this year › — Alicia Parlapiano 10h ago
Early returns

Be wary of ‘mirages’ connected predetermination night

Because of the bid successful which antithetic types of ballots are counted, aboriginal returns tin beryllium misleading. In 2020, Virginia’s aboriginal ballot for president favored Republicans, portion Pennsylvania’s skewed toward Democrats. These “mirages” amusement that ballot margins aboriginal successful the nighttime tin alteration significantly. — Lazaro Gamio 10h ago
When polls close ›

Polls successful astir states volition adjacent by 9 p.m. Eastern

Results volition statesman coming successful astatine 6 p.m. Eastern arsenic the archetypal polls adjacent successful Indiana and Kentucky, but the gait volition truly prime up with a slew of closings astatine 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls volition person closed successful a bulk of states. — Maggie Astor 10h ago

About this data Demographic information are based connected the U.S. Census Bureau 2016–2020 American Community Survey five-year estimates and provided by SocialExplorer.com. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties was utilized to radical counties by size. Historical predetermination results are from The Associated Press and from the Voting and Election Science Team, which analyzed precinct results to find the 2020 statesmanlike ballot for 2022 House districts. “Most competitive” counties correspond those successful which Trump oregon Biden won by 5 points oregon little successful 2020.

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