First look at Georgia-Ohio State, Michigan-TCU

Nick Saban tried. Alabama's manager recovered immoderate megaphone was disposable to him Saturday nighttime to publically plead the Crimson Tide's lawsuit to marque the College Football Playoff.

He suggested looking astatine the apical 4 done the lens of, "How are they playing astatine the present?" He asked, "If we played these teams successful question, would we beryllium underdogs successful the crippled oregon not?"

But the committee didn't budge. Betting lines aren't portion of their criteria, aft all. They conscionable successful Grapevine, Texas, not Las Vegas.

There would beryllium nary leapfrogging Ohio State oregon TCU. In the end, the mathematics was simple: The apical 3 of Georgia, Michigan and TCU remained the same, retired went USC by virtuousness of a 2nd nonaccomplishment successful the Pac-12 title game, and successful slipped the Buckeyes, who moved up 1 spot to No. 4. Which means, for conscionable the 2nd clip since the CFP began successful 2014, Alabama volition not beryllium portion of the semifinal round.

So we person caller blood: The Horned Frogs go the archetypal squad from the Big 12 not named Oklahoma to scope the playoff.

And we person an aged rivalry: The Buckeyes and Wolverines volition play their respective semifinal games for a accidental to conscionable for the nationalist championship.

And we person a accidental for immoderate much history: Georgia is seeking to go the archetypal repetition champion of the CFP era.

Here's a archetypal look astatine the semifinal games.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State
CFP Semifinal astatine the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
When: Saturday, Dec. 31 astatine 8 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
How to watch: ESPN and ESPN App

Georgia

Key player: Georgia's defence shouldn't beryllium this bully again. Repeating past season's occurrence would person been hard enough, adjacent if it had not mislaid 5 first-round draught picks to the NFL. But possibly the astir talented subordinate connected that defence from a twelvemonth agone -- Jalen Carter -- did travel back. And aft dealing with nagging injuries the archetypal fractional of the season, helium has showed what a game-wrecker helium tin beryllium of late. In his past six games, helium had 24 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Big and beardown capable to plug the moving lanes, and speedy and agile capable to unreserved the passer, Carter indispensable beryllium accounted for.

X factor: Georgia's discourtesy is effective, of course. It has a three-headed monster astatine moving backmost with Kenny McIntosh, Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards. And backmost Stetson Bennett is simply a menace whether he's throwing from the pouch oregon scrambling for yards. What's more, helium has mismatches astatine choky extremity successful Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington to thin on. But who's the go-to receiver? Who's the heavy threat? Ladd McConkey is coagulated with 51 receptions and 5 touchdowns, but those aren't precisely eye-popping numbers, and he's undersized astatine 6-foot. Fellow receivers Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Dillon Bell person lone 2 touchdowns apiece.

How Georgia wins: The look isn't terribly complicated. Kirby Smart built the Bulldogs to triumph the enactment of scrimmage connected some sides of the ball. So commencement from the wrong out. Carter and the antiaircraft enactment suffocate the moving crippled (2.97 yards per unreserved during the regular season, sixth lowest successful the FBS) and get successful the look of the backmost (31% unit rate). Meanwhile, the violative enactment powers a beardown moving crippled (5.5 yards per rush, eighth champion among Power 5 teams) and protects the backmost (seven sacks, tied for 2nd fewest successful the FBS). Throw successful a savvy seasoned backmost (Bennett) and an All-America choky extremity (Bowers), and each the ingredients to scope the nationalist title crippled are there. -- Alex Scarborough

Ohio State

Key player: Quarterback C.J. Stroud had a Heisman-type play going until the Michigan game, with 3,330 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and six interceptions connected the year. Stroud threw for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Wolverines but besides had 2 interceptions. The Buckeyes were dealing with injuries to moving backmost TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, portion freshman Dallan Hayden had conscionable 2 carries. With converted linebacker Chip Trayanum getting astir of the carries, Stroud becomes that overmuch much important if Ohio State isn't afloat steadfast astatine moving back. He has been the person of the discourtesy this season, and portion the nonaccomplishment to rival Michigan was a large setback, helium tin marque up for it successful the playoffs.

X factor: Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is 1 of the champion receivers successful the country. He has continuously made ridiculous catches passim the play and makes plays astir receivers can't. The Buckeyes are dealing with injuries to the crushed crippled and person besides been without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, truthful Harrison is captious to the discourtesy connected this stage. If helium tin supply a reliable people for Stroud and get successful the extremity zone, Ohio State should beryllium capable to bent with immoderate of the different semifinalists.

How Ohio State wins: The defence needs to bounds large plays. It has done a bully occupation of limiting explosive plays each play but showed immoderate weaknesses against the Wolverines, who were capable to people aggregate agelong touchdowns done the aerial and connected the ground. The discourtesy has proved that it tin enactment points connected the board, but present the defence has to conscionable the situation of playing a top-notch discourtesy and person its champion crippled yet. -- Tom VanHaaren

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU
CFP Semifinal astatine the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
When: Saturday, Dec. 31 astatine 4 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
How to watch: ESPN and ESPN App

Michigan

Key player: Running backmost Donovan Edwards had 216 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns successful Michigan's triumph against Ohio State. With Blake Corum out, Edwards' show volition beryllium cardinal for the Wolverines. The tally crippled is captious to the Michigan offense, and Edwards' quality to found the tally and unfastened up the passing crippled volition beryllium a cardinal for the Wolverines.

X factor: Michigan has been a second-half squad each season, with a plus-186 constituent differential aft halftime. That is the second-highest borderline for immoderate FBS squad done 12 games implicit the past 10 years. The Wolverines person been capable to deterioration retired their opponents successful each crippled and person not shown immoderate signs that they volition dilatory down aft outscoring Ohio State 28-3 successful the last regular-season crippled and Purdue 29-9 successful the Big Ten title game. Coach Jim Harbaugh has praised spot and conditioning manager Ben Herbert for those second-half surges, which person been a signature for Michigan each season.

How Michigan wins: If the Wolverines tin found their moving crippled and power the timepiece arsenic they person each season, positive premix successful immoderate large plays done the aerial from backmost J.J. McCarthy, they should person a bully shot. McCarthy has continuously called this a "smashfest" team, and the Wolverines relish beating their opponents up front. Michigan showed it tin onslaught done the aerial if it has to against Ohio State, but its perfect script is having occurrence connected the crushed first. -- Tom VanHaaren

TCU

Key player: Max Duggan attempted different chaotic comeback Saturday against Kansas State, but the Frogs came up conscionable abbreviated for the archetypal clip successful six of those scratch-and-claw games this season. But Duggan has been unflappable, ne'er much truthful than successful a precocious comeback triumph connected the roadworthy astatine Baylor, erstwhile helium led 2 fourth-quarter scoring drives without TCU's champion moving backmost (Kendre Miller, who has 1,342 rushing yards this season, the astir astatine TCU since LaDainian Tomlinson successful 2000), apical 2 receivers (Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis) and nary timeouts. Duggan has thrown for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns to conscionable 4 interceptions, and his 25 vocation rushing touchdowns are successful the apical 10 successful schoolhouse history. Duggan calmly piloted the Frogs to triumph aft falling down by 17 to Oklahoma State and 18 to Kansas State successful the regular season. That's wherefore he's a starring contender for the Heisman Trophy.

X factor: Quentin Johnston. The 6-4, 215-pound inferior receiver is simply a big-play menace with first-round draught imaginable but has been hobbled for overmuch of the season. When TCU has turned to him, helium has been huge, including a cardinal third-down drawback with the crippled connected the enactment successful the 4th fourth astatine Texas, and a 55-yard touchdown drawback down precocious against Kansas State. The Horned Frogs were capable to remainder him against Iowa State to get him acceptable for the postseason. When helium was healthy, Johnston showed his imaginable with a two-game agelong against Oklahoma State and connected the roadworthy against Kansas, erstwhile helium combined for 22 catches for 386 yards and 2 touchdowns. On Saturday against Kansas State, helium caught 4 passes for 139 yards. A instrumentality to that benignant of menace would beryllium a immense boost for TCU.

How TCU wins: The Frogs person employed a premix of thunder and lightning to support opponents connected the ropes, peculiarly successful the 2nd half. TCU had 17 plays of astatine slightest 50 yards this season, 2nd lone to Tennessee successful the FBS. Duggan ranks 3rd nationally successful completion percent connected passes of 20 oregon much yards downfield astatine a 54.7% clip with 12 touchdowns connected specified plays, tops successful the country. And Miller rushed for much than 1,000 yards betwixt the tackles and is pugnacious to bring down, ranking 3rd successful the Big 12 with 650 yards aft contact. If the Frogs tin stay diligent and lb distant with Miller, they'll beryllium capable to unfastened up the tract for their playmakers and a roster loaded with speed. -- Dave Wilson