First look at Sugar Bowl: How Alabama, Kansas State can win

We've seen this country earlier successful the Allstate Sugar Bowl. A Big 12 champion comes successful riding precocious against an SEC squad that is disappointed that it's not successful the rubric hunt. It's the classical "didn't privation to beryllium there" scenario.

The SEC has had a squad successful 9 of the past 10 Sugar Bowls that weren't a portion of the BCS oregon the College Football Playoff, and those teams are 3-6: Florida bushed Cincinnati successful 2010; Ole Miss bushed Oklahoma State successful 2016; and Georgia bushed Baylor successful 2020.

Two of the biggest upsets successful caller years acceptable the bill, however, of high-profile SEC teams that seemed focused connected a nationalist rubric oregon bust. No. 3 Alabama mislaid to No. 10 Oklahoma 45-31 successful the 2014 crippled and No. 6 Georgia mislaid to No. 14 Texas 28-21 successful 2019.

Playing the relation of Big 12 champion this clip is Kansas State, caller disconnected an upset of TCU, which made the playoff contempt the loss. The Wildcats look playoff regular Alabama, and determination already has been a flood of Crimson Tide players entering the transportation portal. Nick Saban said Sunday that helium can't accidental yet who mightiness beryllium retired the vessel crippled to hole for the draft.

"We're going to manager the players that are there," Saban said. "We're going to effort to manager them to bash the champion imaginable occupation that they can."

No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 9 Kansas State
Allstate Sugar Bowl
When: Saturday, Dec. 31 astatine noon ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
How to watch: ESPN and ESPN App
Opening enactment via Caesars Sportsbook: Alabama by 4

Alabama

Key player: Henry To'oTo'o is going to person his hands full, whether it's trying to corral Kansas State moving backmost Deuce Vaughn oregon disrupt quarterbacks Will Howard and/or Adrian Martinez. To'oTo'o is the bosom of the Tide defence astatine mediate linebacker. He calls each the plays and is 2nd connected the squad successful tackles (89), including 7 tackles for nonaccomplishment and 2.5 sacks. He'll person to beryllium a sure-handed tackler against the Wildcats' ninth-ranked rushing offense, a dynamic onslaught that has picked up 44.7% of its yards aft contact.

X factor: Receiver has been a occupation each play agelong for Alabama. The Tide haven't had anyone who tin consistently make separation. What's more, they've had 25 drops, the 2nd astir successful the SEC. And now, acknowledgment to the transportation portal, they're down 2 of their astir experienced receivers successful JoJo Earle and Traeshon Holden. So the outlook isn't great. They request idiosyncratic to measurement up, whether it's Kendrick Law, who has carved retired a relation for himself arsenic a freshman precocious this season, oregon Tyler Harrell, who came to Alabama from Louisville with precocious expectations but has yet to deliver.

How Alabama wins: It mightiness beryllium an oversimplification, but Alabama needs its players to really play successful this game. For starters, it needs backmost Bryce Young and extracurricular linebacker Will Anderson Jr. -- 2 of the apical 10 players successful the state and projected first-round picks successful the NFL draught -- not to opt retired and permission aboriginal to spell pro. Then, the Tide request to chopped disconnected the travel of players to the transportation portal. To beryllium competitive, the Tide request to person a steadfast roster. But there's besides the question of motivation. Saban is preaching the accidental for players to decorativeness the play beardown and make worth successful the eyes of the NFL, but aft coming up conscionable abbreviated of the playoff, it's just to wonderment however locked into this crippled they'll be.

Kansas State

Key player: Deuce Vaughn is 1 of the astir entertaining players successful assemblage football. At 5-foot-6, 172 pounds, the dynamic moving backmost had 8 100-yard games, including rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown successful the Big 12 title triumph implicit TCU. Vaughn besides caught 42 passes for 378 yards and 3 touchdowns this season, averaging 138.7 full yards per game, 13th champion successful the FBS.

X factor: The Wildcats' backmost situation. Adrian Martinez played good aft transferring from Nebraska, but got wounded successful October against TCU. Martinez returned against Texas, but K-State mislaid that one, past Will Howard took over. He led the Wildcats to a four-game winning streak, including throwing for 2 touchdowns and moving for different successful the upset triumph implicit TCU. Coach Chris Klieman, however, said earlier the title crippled that determination could beryllium a bundle featuring Martinez if helium was steadfast capable to play. Given the magnitude of clip he'll person to rest, there's a accidental some quarterbacks could play against Alabama.

How Kansas State wins: Klieman is 3-0 successful his vocation against AP top-five opponents, the lone manager with aggregate wins of that benignant without a loss. He's won a batch of games and conscionable became the archetypal K-State manager not named Bill Snyder to triumph 10 games since 1910. He deftly guided the Wildcats done a Big 12 docket against 8 teams that went to vessel games and did it by playing a carnal benignant akin to Snyder's aged teams, with Snyder's aged QB, Collin Klein, calling plays. Against an Alabama squad that could beryllium breaking successful respective caller faces, his acquisition could beryllium the difference. If the defence and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felix Anudike-Uzomah get aft Alabama the mode they did Max Duggan (2-of-10 for 21 yards with an interception and a sack connected 3rd down), they could propulsion disconnected different upset.