House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who could look a tricky way to the speakership adjacent twelvemonth if Republicans eke retired a majority, volition beryllium moving with slim margins and a radical of blimpish bomb-throwers who could wield a tremendous magnitude of leverage. Meanwhile, successful the Senate, some parties volition beryllium forced to tackle those immense fiscal problems together, since Democrats are acold from a filibuster-proof majority.
“Having had to shepherd the American Rescue Plan done the House with a four-vote margin, I’d accidental they person their enactment chopped retired for them if they’re going to execute anything,” retiring House Budget Chair John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) said of his Republican colleagues. “If they’re going to get thing done, they’re going to person to enactment with Democrats.”
Here are the 5 fiscal barriers Congress has to leap implicit successful the lame duck and beyond:
Government funding
Congressional leaders look amenable to striking a bipartisan year-end spending woody that averts a shutdown connected Dec. 16 and boosts national bureau budgets, wiping the slate cleanable earlier the caller Congress successful January.
But lagging predetermination results could mean delayed enactment connected the monolithic $1.5 trillion-plus package, since lawmakers punted negotiations until aft the midterms. Aides for appropriators connected some sides of the aisle contend that they’re connected way to conscionable their mid-December backing deadline, contempt a dearth of talks.
The adjacent authorities backing deadline Congress volition person to grapple with is apt Oct. 1 of adjacent year, erstwhile fiscal twelvemonth 2024 begins. Some House Republicans are hellbent connected slashing national spending, but immoderate appropriations bundle volition necessitate bipartisan enactment to get done the Senate.
The indebtedness ceiling
The U.S. volition deed its borrowing bounds sometime adjacent twelvemonth if Congress doesn’t act. The midterms could ramp up the unit connected legislature leaders to assistance the indebtedness bounds during the lame duck, successful bid to debar an aggravated partisan standoff successful 2023.
Republicans person threatened to usage the indebtedness ceiling arsenic leverage for cuts to societal spending programs, specified arsenic Social Security and Medicare, an thought loathed by the different party.
Democrats could unilaterally rise the indebtedness ceiling implicit the adjacent 2 months utilizing the filibuster-proof process known arsenic fund reconciliation. But specified a maneuver would devour up precious level time, truthful Democrats mightiness find it indispensable to prosecute a painstaking woody with Republicans instead.
“Everybody mightiness person an involvement successful getting the indebtedness ceiling taken attraction of truthful that Republicans don’t person to bash it successful the adjacent Congress and Democrats don’t person to interest astir the leverage that Republicans have,” said David Wessel, a manager of fiscal and monetary argumentation astatine the Brookings Institution. “This could beryllium 1 of those lame ducks wherever a batch of things happen.”
Yarmuth said he’s acceptable to woody with the indebtedness ceiling successful the lame duck, though he’d alternatively get escaped of it altogether — a conception that President Joe Biden opposes.
Ukraine assistance
Current Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already promised to see further assistance for Ukraine successful the year-end authorities backing deal, portion much Republicans person cooled disconnected erstwhile it comes to doling retired further subject assistance.
Ukraine’s warfare against Russia could resistance connected for the foreseeable future, however. Both parties whitethorn beryllium forced to see much backing for the state successful what would magnitude to an arduous bipartisan propulsion adjacent year. Even if the warfare results successful a cease-fire oregon comes to an end, Ukraine whitethorn request ongoing economical assistance from Congress to enactment afloat.
Recession relief
The U.S. is apt hurtling toward a recession that would deed adjacent twelvemonth and, dissimilar past economical slumps, it whitethorn not beryllium feasible for the adjacent Congress to walk authorities that funnels hundreds of billions of dollars toward struggling households.
Messy authorities aside, the fiscal conservatism of the apt House GOP bulk would regularisation retired an costly involution from Congress that would itself tally antagonistic to the Federal Reserve’s actions to quell ostentation — spelling further catastrophe for the economy. Lawmakers could perchance absorption connected areas of alleviation that people the neediest families, similar nutrient assistance.
“Republicans and Democrats whitethorn consciousness similar there’s an imperative to bash thing to assistance radical successful a recession, but it volition beryllium 1 of those hard-fought negotiations,” Wessel said.
Medicare cuts
Congress indispensable enactment successful the adjacent 2 months to waive billions of dollars successful Medicare cuts that would instrumentality impact adjacent twelvemonth — a broadside effect of Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. The cuts are required by 2010 pay-as-you-go fund rules, which necessitate lawmakers to offset the outgo of legislation.
Congress routinely waives specified cuts, but the contented became a governmental blistery murphy past year. Lawmakers alternatively punted the occupation into 2022, with Republicans unwilling to assistance Democrats stave disconnected the slices caused by transition of their monolithic party-line bill.
Now, it seems lawmakers volition softly grip the contented earlier the extremity of the year. A caller bipartisan missive from 46 senators, ranging from Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), urged legislature leaders to forestall the cuts.
“I deliberation radical deliberation it’s astir a fait accompli that we’ll fig it out,” Yarmuth said. “No 1 is truly panicked implicit it.”
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