Four big USMNT questions before World Cup

On Nov. 21, hardly much than 1 period from now, the U.S. men's nationalist squad volition play their archetypal World Cup crippled successful astir 8½ years. Thank goodness. More than 1,600 days passed betwixt erstwhile the Americans were eliminated from World Cup qualification successful 2018 and erstwhile they clinched this clip around, and present much than 200 days person passed since qualification. After the longest hold ever betwixt World Cups, it's conscionable astir here. Ready oregon not.

National squad coaches are signed with World Cup cycles successful mind, and U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter's declaration is scheduled to extremity successful the weeks aft the tourney successful Qatar. His archetypal twelvemonth was spent fiddling with lineups and getting looks astatine arsenic galore players arsenic possible, and his 2nd was astir nonexistent owed to COVID stoppages. His 3rd was a roller coaster of injuries, a trio of wins implicit Mexico and a bumpy and frustrating aboriginal crawl done qualification. His 4th included qualification and a summertime (and aboriginal fall) of listlessness.

Optimism has waxed and waned, arsenic has religion successful the occupation Berhalter is doing. But arsenic we participate the valedictory signifier of this eight-year drought, present are 4 questions I inactive person astir Berhalter, his squad and the monolithic tourney ahead.

How person the U.S. done nether Berhalter?

To commencement answering that question, let's measurement backmost and reply a broader question: How person the U.S. done, period?

The nationalist squad is presently 16th successful the FIFA rankings and 24th successful the much predictive ratings astatine EloRatings.net. Here's a speedy illustration of however that compares to its year-end rankings going backmost to 1994, the twelvemonth the U.S. hosted the World Cup.

Considering the country's involvement successful shot has grown, and considering its investment successful shot has grown -- possibly astir notably done the accrued concern successful MLS academies and leagues beneath MLS -- the U.S. hasn't truly improved its wide lasting successful satellite shot since its archetypal post-1994 surge. Its aureate epoch successful some sets of ratings began successful astir 2000, picked up steam successful 2002 and petered retired astir 2005. Since then, the U.S. has been immersed successful astir identical cycles.

The U.S. averaged a year-end ranking of 13th successful the 2 ratings supra successful 2005, but they had fallen to an mean of 28th the adjacent year, erstwhile Bruce Arena's managerial declaration was allowed to expire. Three years later, successful 2009, they were backmost to an mean of 16th nether Bob Bradley, but they had fallen to an mean of 35th 2 years erstwhile helium was fired successful 2011.

These cycles continued nether Jurgen Klinsmann: They were backmost to wrong sniffing region of the apical 10 successful 2013 but had fallen backmost into the 30s erstwhile helium was fired successful 2016. And aft a mates of stagnant years astatine the commencement of the Berhalter epoch -- acknowledgment successful portion to a deficiency of opportunities during the COVID twelvemonth of 2020 -- they had surged close backmost to the precocious teens successful 2021 earlier slipping to a existent mean of 20th.

We caput into the World Cup, then, astatine a monolithic pivot point. A coagulated showing astatine the World Cup* would apt bump the U.S. backmost up and people the archetypal clip since 2004-05 that they averaged a ranking successful the teens astatine the extremity of 2 consecutive years. With truthful overmuch of the halfway roster inactive years from reaching its peak, this would overgarment an awfully optimistic representation of the years ahead.

*How would we specify a "solid" showing, by the way? Considering that EloRatings.net rates the U.S. (24th), Iran (21st) and Wales (26th) astir arsenic astatine the moment, "solid" would astir apt necessitate advancement to the knockout rounds and the avoidance of a blowout against England and/or a round-of-16 opponent.

A lesser showing successful Qatar, meanwhile, would mean that the Berhalter era's trajectory would reflector that of some the Klinsmann and Bradley eras successful a batch of ways.

So let's spell backmost to the archetypal question: How has Berhalter done frankincense far? The aforesaid arsenic conscionable astir immoderate caller U.S. coach, it appears. But based connected however Americans person been performing astatine the nine level, 1 could marque the lawsuit that he's achieved astir the aforesaid results with a much talented, if little experienced, squad. When the U.S. reached the World Cup quarterfinals, they did truthful with a squad featuring 7 players who were playing for a squad successful 1 of Europe's large 5 leagues. This year's World Cup squad volition person 12-14 specified players.

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Granted, immoderate of the team's astir talented players person struggled with injury; here's wherever I erstwhile again enactment that Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Sergino Dest person played unneurotic successful the aforesaid U.S. lucifer conscionable once -- ever. But with greater extent of options, a three-and-out quality astatine the World Cup -- particularly with what mightiness really beryllium a reasonably steadfast squad -- would inactive bespeak poorly connected Berhalter's wide performance.

Is it just that aft 4 years and 56 matches successful charge, Berhalter volition beryllium evaluated astir wholly by a three- to five-match plaything astatine the extremity of the 4th year? Almost certainly. Is that mode it works successful planetary soccer? Absolutely. Put different way, the World Cup is the last exam astatine the extremity of the semester.

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Yunus Musah learns however to navigator paella and speaks astir the World Cup with the USMNT.

Who gets the last 8 (or so) spots?

You're allowed to instrumentality 26 players to Qatar. Based connected who's presently steadfast and who Berhalter has seemingly preferred implicit the past twelvemonth oregon so, we tin safely conjecture astir 18 of those names (listed alphabetically by position).

• Goalkeepers: Zack Steffen (Middlesbrough) and Matt Turner (Arsenal)

• Center-backs: Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace) and Walker Zimmerman (Nashville SC)

• Fullbacks: Sergino Dest (AC Milan), Antonee Robinson (Fulham) and DeAndre Yedlin (Inter Miami)

• Midfielders: Kellyn Acosta (LAFC), Tyler Adams (Leeds United), Luca de la Torre (Celta Vigo), Weston McKennie (Juventus) and Yunus Musah (Valencia)

• Forwards: Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United), Jesus Ferreira (FC Dallas), Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund) and Tim Weah (Lille)

Berhalter could outpouring a astonishment based connected nine signifier -- which could negatively interaction idiosyncratic similar de la Torre, who has played conscionable 38 minutes for Celta Vigo this season, oregon Dest, who's struggled since moving to Milan from Barcelona implicit the summertime -- but it would so beryllium a surprise.

Unless Long's iffy performances successful September friendlies person fixed him pause, Berhalter has made his preferences beauteous wide astatine this point. And speech from center-back Miles Robinson, whose unfortunate Achilles wounded successful May eliminated him from information aft helium had each but locked a starting spot for the U.S., it appears that contempt a tally of caller insignificant injuries, each of his different first-choice players would beryllium presently disposable if the World Cup began today. (Knock connected wood, oregon execute your indispensable jinx-prevention exercises here.)

So that leaves 8 different players to select: a 3rd goalkeeper, positive astir apt either 1 oregon 2 players successful each of the different presumption categories above. Based erstwhile again connected who Berhalter has seemingly taken the hardest look astatine implicit the past twelvemonth oregon so, present are approximate lists of apt candidates for those last spots.

• Goalkeepers: Ethan Horvath (Luton Town) oregon Sean Johnson (NYC FC).

Since the commencement of 2021, these are the lone 2 different keepers to play for Berhalter too Turner and Steffen.

• Center-back: Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic), Mark McKenzie (Genk), Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes) oregon James Sands (Rangers)

Palmer-Brown and McKenzie took portion successful the past planetary window, and Carter-Vickers would person if not for injury. Sands has played six times for the U.S. since the commencement of 2021 and is doing good for Rangers. John Brooks has besides played six times for Berhalter successful that span, but seems to beryllium connected the outs and has not seen overmuch playing clip since signing with Benfica.

• Fullback: George Bello (Arminia Bielefeld), Reggie Cannon (Boavista), Shaq Moore (Nashville SC), Joe Scally (Borussia Monchengladbach), Sam Vines (Royal Antwerp)

This portion is simply a spot of a mystery. Robinson, Yedlin and astir apt Dest are astir apt no-brainers, but astatine slightest 1 much fullback volition spell to Qatar. Cannon is simply a Berhalter favorite, but is inactive moving his mode backmost from a groin wounded that knocked him retired of September friendlies. Scally is 19 and already successful his 2nd play starting for a Bundesliga squad; helium would look similar a no-brainer, but Berhalter has played him lone 3 times.

• Midfield: Gianluca Busio (Venezia), Johnny Cardoso (Internacional), Sebastian Lletget (Dallas), Malik Tillman (Rangers), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders) oregon Jackson Yueill (San Jose)

With Roldan besides battling a groin wounded (he's steadfast now), Berhalter was capable to springiness longer looks to Cardoso and Tillman, some of whom person made 4 appearances for the U.S., successful September's planetary window. Busio seemed connected his mode to locking up a spot a twelvemonth ago, but has made lone 1 quality successful the past 13 U.S. matches.

• Forward: Paul Arriola (FC Dallas), Ricardo Pepi (Groningen), Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders), Jordan Pefok (Union Berlin), Joshua Sargent (Norwich City), Haji Wright (Antalyaspor), Gyasi Zardes (Colorado Rapids)

Here's wherever Berhalter's preferences person peculiarly tally antagonistic to signifier and stats. He invited Pepi to September campy contempt a agelong tally of mediocre form, and successful 59 minutes against Saudi Arabia, Pepi managed conscionable 13 touches and nary shots. He besides invited Sargent astatine the 22-year-old's archetypal motion of improved signifier successful the English 2nd tier; Sargent played 45 minutes against Saudi Arabia with 15 touches and nary shots. Shooting tends to beryllium an important diagnostic for a guardant and extracurricular of Ferreira, Berhalter has struggled to find idiosyncratic who consistently attempts them.

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It would astonishment nary 1 if Berhalter selected 2 oregon truthful from a excavation of Pepi, Sargent and veterans Arriola and Morris. They are intelligibly who he's astir comfy with astatine this point, for amended oregon worse. But if nine signifier really matters, past Pefok oregon Wright should beryllium garnering longer looks than they person received of late.

Pefok has scored 3 goals with 4 assists successful 9 matches for Bundesliga-leading Union Berlin; helium mightiness not people supply the link-up play Berhalter wants from his center-forwards, but helium is portion of what mightiness beryllium the champion counter-attacking portion successful Europe astatine the moment, and it seems that mightiness beryllium a bully plus to person connected your bench, astatine the precise least. Wright, meanwhile, has scored 7 goals successful 9 Turkish Super Lig matches aft scoring 14 past season, but he's seen lone 119 minutes successful a U.S. shirt.

While we're talking astir in-form scorers, 1 would person besides thought the 24-year aged Brandon Vazquez would person gotten a longer look by now. Vazquez scored 19 goals during FC Cincinnati's melodramatic emergence successful MLS this season, but Berhalter has yet to springiness him an appearance. (He isn't cap-tied and is besides eligible to play for Mexico.)

Berhalter talks a batch astir wanting to take the right squad alternatively of what mightiness simply beryllium the astir talented team. That tin marque evident sense, but lone if you're not sacrificing prime successful work of an individuality that hasn't needfully taken clasp aft 4 years.

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Rob Dawson feels Pep Guardiola managing USMNT successful a World Cup erstwhile helium leaves Manchester City is simply a peculiarly intriguing prospect.

Does the team's individuality acceptable the personnel?

On Dec. 4, 2018, successful the quality league introducing Berhalter arsenic caput coach, Earnie Stewart, a erstwhile USMNT striker and its existent sporting director, was asked however occurrence should beryllium defined for the Berhalter era. He broke his reply into 3 parts. Two were beauteous factual -- qualifying for the 2022 World Cup and succeeding determination -- but the 3rd was much abstract: "Making definite that the mode we play [is] identified done our fans, truthful that what they spot connected the tract is what they privation to see."

That reply was problematic from the start, if lone due to the fact that fans are ne'er going to hold 100% connected aesthetics. But erstwhile you prosecute Berhalter, you're hiring possession.

In his 5 seasons with MLS' Columbus Crew, Berhalter's teams averaged astatine slightest 5.0 passes per possession each twelvemonth and managed astatine slightest a 53.6% possession complaint successful 3 of those five. Columbus was much passive successful defence than a batch of possession teams, but helium intelligibly believed successful diligent gathering from the backmost and attempting to dilatory pin opponents heavy with longer possessions.

It was casual to spot however it mightiness beryllium hard to portion unneurotic specified a factual benignant for an planetary squad erstwhile you've lone got truthful overmuch signifier clip and you person nary power implicit who's successful your subordinate pool. Would the U.S. beryllium capable to adhere to this attack against much talented teams considering endowment and possession correlate beauteous good with each other? And would abbreviated passing enactment without pratfalls connected immoderate of the bumpier pitches they mightiness brushwood successful CONCACAF roadworthy play?

When asked astir this successful his introductory quality conference, Berhalter simply said, "I deliberation erstwhile I took implicit successful Columbus 5 years ago, if I would archer you the look of Columbus was going to beryllium a possession-based team, you'd astir apt beryllium asking akin questions." That is to say, helium didn't reply the question astatine all.

Four years in, gathering a possession benignant has so turned retired to beryllium difficult. The U.S. has been capable to predominate possession and triumph large implicit teams with acold lesser talent: In 56 full matches, they person averaged 57% possession and gone implicit 65% connected 10 occasions. But erstwhile facing bully teams, they person either struggled to power the shot oregon struggled to make thing with it.

In 26 matches Berhalter's U.S. person played against teams that are successful this year's World Cup, they enjoyed much possession 17 times, but they scored conscionable 16 goals successful those matches and averaged 1.53 points per game. In conscionable 9 matches nether 50%, they scored astir arsenic galore goals (13) and averaged 1.89 points per game. Most of their champion performances -- 4-1 implicit Canada successful November 2019 (37% possession), 3-0 implicit Morocco successful June 2022 (52%), each 3 2021 wins implicit Mexico (37%, 43% and 49%) -- came without loads of possession. They were some amended and much prolific without the ball, contempt Berhalter's intentions.

It was the aforesaid communicative passim World Cup qualification. In 5 matches astatine 50% possession oregon lower, they averaged 2.2 points and 2.2 goals per game. In 9 matches implicit 50% possession, they averaged 1.6 points and 1.1 goals. Establishing prime possession has been hit-or-miss and erstwhile they bash it, they person not recovered the creativity to unlock packed-in defenses. It is perfectly true, though, that amended wounded luck would help: Pulisic, Reyna and Weah each play for possession-heavy nine teams, but they've lone played unneurotic 3 times.

Even worse: In their September affable against the U.S., Japan pressed them heavy and the U.S. caved. Japan isn't a squad everlastingly reliant connected pressing, but they sensed weakness and took afloat advantage. They began an unthinkable 15.2% of their possessions successful the attacking 3rd -- for comparison, adjacent Manchester City (10.7%) and Bayern Munich (10.6%) are obscurity adjacent to that percent successful nine play.

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Matt Turner speaks astir his USMNT teammates and explains wherefore helium doesn't similar the aureate procreation phrase.

Against some Japan and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. enjoyed astatine slightest 55% possession, but managed conscionable 11 combined changeable attempts, 2 shots connected extremity and zero goals. In their past World Cup tuneups, aft astir 4 years nether Berhalter, the U.S. failed miserably successful astir of what were expected to beryllium their halfway tenets.

To beryllium sure, a disappointing tuneup crippled tin assistance refocus everyone and get information levels to wherever they request to be; the U.S. mislaid to Netherlands and Ireland successful the run-up to the 2002 World Cup, aft all, lone to astir scope the semifinals. All anticipation is evidently not lost, but the information that the performances were some mediocre and seemingly indicative of erstwhile issues was awfully scary and decidedly not what fans "want to see."

Who wins: the USMNT oregon the Snubbed USMNT?

Let's decorativeness this portion with a thought exercise: If I'm truthful acrophobic astir the U.S. not playing a benignant that their endowment basal is built to play, tin I trade an "Alternate USMNT" that could perchance bushed the existent USMNT that Berhalter is apt to enactment connected the tract successful Qatar? Better yet, tin I bash it without utilizing immoderate of Berhalter's regulars?

Choosing lone from players who person seen nary much than 150 minutes with the nationalist squad implicit the past 12 months, here's my 26-man roster. Because of coagulated extent astatine center-back and iffy extent astatine fullback, we're going with a Union Berlin-esque 3-5-2 with seasoned operation successful defence and arsenic overmuch velocity arsenic imaginable up the pitch.

• Goalkeepers: Sean Johnson (NYCFC), Ethan Horvath (Luton Town) and Josh Cohen (Maccabi Haifa)

• Center-backs: Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes), Tim Ream (Fulham), James Sands (Rangers), Auston Trusty (Birmingham City), John Brooks (Benfica), Matt Miazga (Cincinnati)

• Fullbacks: Sam Vines (Royal Antwerp), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders), DeJuan Jones (New England), Konrad de la Fuente (Olympiacos), John Tolkin (New York Red Bulls)

• Midfielders: Djordje Mihailovic (CF Montreal), Malik Tillman (Rangers), Sebastian Lletget (Dallas), Kevin Paredes (Wolfsburg), Gianluca Busio (Venezia), Alan Sonora (Independiente), Michael Bradley (Toronto), Julian Green (Greuther Furth)

• Forwards: Jordan Pefok (Union Berlin), Haji Wright (Antalyaspor), Brandon Vazquez (FC Cincinnati), Josh Sargent (Norwich City)

To beryllium sure, the subordinate excavation is bladed erstwhile it comes to cleanable wingback options -- though Vines and possibly Jones could thrive successful specified roles -- and the existent U.S. midfield of Adams, McKennie and Musah offers acold much athleticism and upside than my selection. But it's imaginable that this squad is adjacent to the existent USMNT astatine the beforehand and backmost and, with the premix of creativity successful midfield and axenic velocity and finishing quality up front, it could adhere to its chosen individuality amended than the existent USMNT person of late.

The existent USMNT would beryllium favored to triumph against this snubbed team, and hopefully they would triumph indeed. But if Berhalter's squad so fails to beforehand successful Qatar, contempt what mightiness beryllium the nation's richest wide endowment excavation to date, it volition apt beryllium due to the fact that different teams cognize themselves and play to their strengths amended than the U.S. do. And that would not bespeak good connected the four-year Berhalter era.