Green expectations: Is the party finally breaking through in England and Wales?

As Bristol's newest Green councillor was hoisted, somewhat awkwardly, connected to the shoulders of his colleagues, the smiles could hardly person been wider.

Within hours of Patrick McAllister's by-election victory, the party's section Twitter relationship had been renamed to observe becoming "Bristol's biggest party" - they present person the astir seats connected the metropolis council, though it remains Labour-run.

It is the latest successful a bid of section predetermination successes for the Green Party of England and Wales.

The enactment has ne'er managed to person its grassroots enactment into wide predetermination occurrence - with the objection of Caroline Lucas successful Brighton Pavilion, who remains its lone MP.

Unlike immoderate different parties, the Greens person ne'er gone successful overmuch for anticipation management, and they are bullish astir their prospects now.

"We deliberation we could good get different 100 seats," says co-leader Carla Denyer, erstwhile asked astir May's section elections.

At the moment, they person astir 540 councillors successful England and Wales, astir 200 of them won successful 2019, erstwhile these seats were past contested, and vexation astatine Brexit negotiations wounded some the Conservatives and Labour.

They person tally councils earlier but person ne'er won outright power of a large section authorization astatine the ballot box.

Former MEP Molly Scott-Cato, who is present the party's elections co-ordinator, says 1 of the large reasons voters don't backmost the Greens is that they simply don't deliberation they tin win.

"Our occupation is to person them that we would connection thing better, that we tin beryllium elected and erstwhile we workout power, we workout it good and successful their interests and without immoderate proposition of self-interest oregon corruption.

"I deliberation we're doing that astatine section level and our occupation present is to construe that into spot astatine a wide predetermination truthful that we get much MPs successful Parliament."

Caroline Lucas was elected arsenic the UK's archetypal Green MP successful 2010 but the enactment has struggled ever since to unafraid a 2nd parliamentary seat.

The party's biggest situation remains the first-past-the-post electoral strategy utilized astatine wide elections.

Their sister enactment successful Scotland, wherever a signifier of proportional practice operates, has been successful authorities astatine Holyrood, successful a power-sharing woody with the SNP since 2021.

The Greens are polling astatine astir 5% nationally, which would not present immoderate MPs astatine each if it was repeated evenly crossed the country.

Like each parties, they person to people their resources astatine definite seats. At the adjacent wide election, wide expected adjacent year, they volition beryllium focusing connected areas specified arsenic North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley successful Suffolk, wherever they person built up a attraction of councillors.

But it is successful Bristol wherever the enactment sees their champion anticipation for a 2nd spot astatine Westminster, and wherever Carla Denyer volition beryllium taking connected Labour incumbent Thangam Debbonaire.

Boundary changes are acceptable to crook Bristol West into Bristol Central and marque it, they say, "very Green-leaning".

It would inactive beryllium a pugnacious inquire though. In 2019, Ms Denyer got 25% of the vote, but Ms Debbonaire won with much than 60%.

Local governmental experts besides picture voters successful Bristol arsenic a "sophisticated electorate", whose votes astatine assembly level whitethorn not needfully construe into enactment astatine a wide election.

And, of course, the Greens person been optimistic before.

In 2015, the alleged "green surge" saw thousands of caller members articulation up but it didn't construe into different spot successful Parliament.

Natalie Bennett, present sitting successful the Lords for the Greens arsenic Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle, was enactment person astatine the time.

"On our biggest time successful 2015, 3,000 radical joined the enactment successful 1 time and we had section parties that went from 5 radical to 200 people.

"We conscionable didn't person the resources to nonstop each that vigor successful a focused, going to decidedly person to votes, benignant of way.

"Before we were conscionable leaping precocious with thing to clasp america up, present we've got the foundations."

Professor Stephen Fisher, an elections adept based astatine Oxford University, says determination is surely accidental for the Greens to beforehand policies that would entreaty to voters who liked Labour's policies nether erstwhile person Jeremy Corbyn.

"Labour's much cautious attack to taxation and spend... makes it easier for the Greens to marque much bold claims astir however they would bash much to prevention the NHS and put much successful nationalist services.

"Greens mightiness beryllium capable to get distant with offering much spending connected things that radical like."

He warns though that it remains hard for the Greens "to get the momentum to beryllium seen arsenic large contenders" and Labour's determination to enactment Green issues astatine the centre of its transportation to voters makes it harder still.

Green councillors and ballot stock successful wide elections, 2010-2019

Across Great Britain arsenic a whole, the Greens person astir 575 councillors.

Of these, astir 540 are successful England and Wales.

The Greens' stock of the ballot crossed England, Wales and Scotland successful wide elections, and fig of parliamentary candidates fielded:

Sources: Rallings & Thrasher/BBC

One contented that does acceptable them isolated from Labour - arsenic good arsenic the Tories and the Lib Dems - is Brexit.

The enactment backs re-joining the EU "as soon arsenic the governmental conditions are right".

Adrian Ramsay, who co-leads the enactment with Ms Denyer, claims their larger rivals are offering "nowhere adjacent enough" connected clime alteration and the outgo of living, and don't recognise "the standard oregon the urgency" of these issues.

The Greens' flagship argumentation is simply a wealthiness taxation connected the richest households with proceeds going to money a monolithic programme of location insulation.

They stay committed to taking vigor and h2o companies into nationalist ownership, introducing a cosmopolitan basal income, and person called for societal attraction to beryllium made escaped astatine the constituent of use.

But similar the remainder of his enactment colleagues, Mr Ramsay is hoping occurrence astatine a section level volition yet person voters astatine a wide predetermination that casting a ballot for the Greens is simply a "normal option".