Gujarat results: Why Modi continues to be India’s biggest vote-getter - BBC

Incumbent politicians successful India are among the astir susceptible successful the world.

"Two retired of 3 governments get thrown retired successful India. In America, the fig is conscionable the other - 2 retired of the 3 get elected," Ruchir Sharma, a starring analyst, erstwhile noted.

Narendra Modi appears to beryllium an exception. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) person won 3 assembly elections connected the trot and ruled Gujarat, his location state, for much than 12 years earlier moving to Delhi successful 2014. He has since led his enactment to 2 decisive wins to regularisation India.

This has not stopped Prime Minister Modi from starring the run for the Gujarat authorities assembly. Thursday's record-breaking triumph - the BJP picked up 156 of the 182 seats and much than fractional of the fashionable ballot - paved the mode for a seventh-term successful the state. It besides proved that Mr Modi is "synonymous with Gujarat", arsenic galore commentators say.

Mr Modi characteristically made the Gujarat canvass a referendum connected himself. He spoke astatine much than 30 run meetings and undertook miles-long roadworthy shows to woo voters and drawback saturation sum connected quality networks. On the stump helium invoked Gujarati asmita oregon pridefulness and implored the voters to "trust" him and the BJP government. "You don't expect the premier curate to expend truthful overmuch clip and vigor successful a authorities election," says Amit Dholakia, a prof of governmental subject astatine Gujarat's Maharaja Sayajirao University.

Mr Modi whitethorn person been made to enactment harder than usual. His ideology of strident Hindu nationalism, combined with promises of economical development, remains a large gully with voters. Religious riots convulsed Gujarat soon aft helium archetypal gained powerfulness successful 2002, but that evidently did not dent his popularity. To beryllium sure, Gujarat outpaces astir of India successful concern and per capita income; and boasts the country's fourth-largest economy.

However, arsenic elsewhere successful India, jobs are drying up and prices are rising here. Gujarat has lagged down little richer states successful wellness indicators similar babe and maternal mortality rates. Mr Modi's successors successful the section authorities person not enjoyed the aforesaid rapport with voters. In the 2017 authorities election, the party, facing a then-resurgent absorption Congress and a rebellion by supporters who belonged to an influential landowning community, scraped done with a constrictive win.

"But erstwhile Mr Modi is connected the ticket, the publication changes," says Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief of ThePrint, an online quality and existent affairs site.

Mr Modi, accidental commentators, knows a setback for the BJP successful Gujarat would wounded not lone his party, but his ain image. One crushed helium whitethorn person expended truthful overmuch clip and vigor campaigning successful the authorities this clip could person to bash with the accomplishment of the absorption Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal. The AAP has been ruling the metropolis authorities of Delhi since 2015 and earlier this twelvemonth won the cardinal authorities of Punjab. On Wednesday, it wrested power of the cash-rich municipality of the capital, Delhi, which the BJP had ruled for 15 years.

Mr Kejriwal is simply a feisty person who relishes throwing down the gauntlet to Mr Modi: helium moved to Varanasi to contention against the BJP person successful the 2014 wide elections. (He lost.) In Gujarat, his enactment debuted with a paltry 5 seats but picked up adjacent to 13% of the fashionable vote, overmuch of it astatine the disbursal of the main absorption Congress party. "It has built a abstraction successful the opposition. It needs to physique a grassroots web and credible leaders," says Prof Dholakia.

A survey by YouGov, a planetary marketplace probe firm, and Delhi-based deliberation vessel Centre for Policy Research (CPR), successful much than 200 cities and towns earlier this twelvemonth recovered the AAP was gaining a foothold arsenic a nationalist alternate to the BJP, taking implicit the absorption abstraction that Congress had enjoyed. "They've got a ft successful the door. It doesn't mean that they are going to triumph the adjacent election, but they go governmental contenders successful the state," says Rahul Verma, a chap with the Centre for Policy Research.

But Mr Modi's BJP remains a hard enactment to beat. His unquestionable entreaty arsenic a vote-getter is complemented by his party's Hindutva ideology, a almighty organisational apparatus, abundant resources, a grounds of governance, a beardown societal conjugation and a mostly supportive media.

Mr Modi is besides helped successful nary tiny measurement by a anemic absorption - the Congress party's abject show successful Gujarat shows voters nary longer find it appealing, accidental commentators. The party's constrictive triumph implicit the BJP successful the tiny upland authorities of Himachal Pradesh - wherever voters person a estimation for kicking retired incumbents - offers lone a uncommon sliver of anticipation to an enfeebled party. However, the ballot successful Himachal Pradesh besides "exemplified the limits of Mr Modi's formidable ability to singlehandedly propulsion BJP done successful authorities elections", according to Asim Ali, a governmental scientist.

What the BJP's sweeping triumph successful Gujarat shows is that the rainbow conjugation - upper, little and middle-ranking castes, besides called the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) - that the enactment has stitched unneurotic continues to fetch dividends. OBCs unsocial marque up astir fractional of Gujarat's much than 60 cardinal radical and present signifier a bulk of the party's voters.

Mr Modi's charisma and link with voters remains the BJP's top strength. "But the party's top spot is besides its top weakness. Take Mr Modi retired of the equation, and the BJP looks vulnerable," says Prof Dholakia. "The dependence connected Mr Modi is besides an admittance of the weakness of the section leadership. The different authorities leaders are not popular."

The BJP is present acceptable to regularisation Gujarat without a interruption for 29 years - lone the Communist Party of India (Marxist) ruled a authorities (West Bengal) for a longer time, a grounds 34 years. And Mr Modi, 72, continues to beryllium a governmental outlier, defying anti-incumbency, some successful his authorities and outside.