Harris's run started at a blazing pace. It will end with her fighting for every vote

Two months ago, Kamala Harris was crowned arsenic the Democratic statesmanlike nominee astatine a jubilant nationalist normal successful Chicago.

For thousands of enactment faithful, she was the electoral saviour, replacing an 81-year-old incumbent who seemed incapable of defeating Donald Trump and winning different term.

But adjacent then, elder enactment strategists told maine they disquieted Democrats were implicit assured astir her way to victory.

Now, arsenic predetermination time looms and anxieties grow, it seems their concerns were well-founded.

There is nary uncertainty that Harris enjoyed a surge of momentum, and an instant and important boost successful the polls compared to President Joe Biden, who was lagging acold down Trump. Yet it appears she was winning backmost those who usually ballot Democratic anyway, but who had disquieted astir Biden and his age.

For victory, Harris needs to pull voters from beyond the Democrats’ base, portion holding unneurotic the fragile conjugation that helped Biden triumph successful 2020.

The latest polls amusement a contention that has tightened successful caller weeks and is present fundamentally a tie. Worrying for Democrats is that Trump has gained crushed successful the important "blue wall" states that connection Harris her clearest way to triumph – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – arsenic good arsenic among achromatic and Latino voters.

Although the contention is neck-and-neck successful the cardinal plaything states, canvass numbers are wrong the borderline of error. In different words, they could beryllium wrong.

But Harris’s disapproval of Trump, her Republican opponent, has go overmuch darker successful the past fewer days. At the convention, she laughed astatine Trump, dismissing him arsenic an “unserious man” and “weird". Now she is calling him a “fascist” and “increasingly unhinged and unstable”.

Her archetypal connection of wanting to bring “joy” has turned to 1 of fearfulness - informing of what she says are the unsafe consequences of a 2nd Trump term.

Polling suggests Harris is apt to triumph the fashionable vote. But that won't beryllium enough. She has to triumph cardinal battleground states to triumph successful the electoral college.

But successful caller weeks arsenic I’ve travelled done astir of those states, the reservations galore voters inactive person astir Harris – a pistillate they consciousness they inactive don’t cognize capable astir - person been clear.

Harris has a precise peculiar occupation successful Michigan, which has the highest attraction of Arab-American voters successful the US.

Biden won the authorities successful 2020 by conscionable implicit 150,000 votes, but his administration’s inability to rein successful Israel’s attacks successful Gaza and Lebanon has profoundly wounded the party’s lasting among the 300,000 Arab-Americans surviving here.

Harris, Biden's vice-president, is being held arsenic responsible.

In the Haraz java store successful Dearborn, a Middle Eastern-style café serving Turkish java and pomegranate juice, I met a radical of lifelong Democrats who usually would beryllium retired campaigning.

I expected to perceive immoderate of them accidental they couldn’t ballot for Harris, and would beryllium sitting retired the vote. But Samraa Luqman, who describes herself arsenic further near than astir Democrats, said she is not lone voting Trump but is actively encouraging others to bash so.

“I judge determination has to beryllium accountability for each the lives lost,” she told me. “I bash not forgive the Democrats for it, and I volition not beryllium frightened into voting for them.”

Chadi Abdulrazek said helium could ne'er person imagined voting for Trump a twelvemonth ago, but present Samraa whitethorn transportation him.

“If I bash privation to punish the Democrats, specifically this administration, past I mightiness person to see that," helium said. ”Every clip I accidental that, I consciousness similar I person to spell and propulsion up. But besides I deliberation astir my family, my people, successful Palestine and successful Lebanon”

Harris has spoken astir her choler implicit the suffering successful Gaza and Lebanon, but these voters privation her to accidental she volition garbage to proviso weapons to Israel if they are utilized successful strikes that termination civilians.

In Michigan, the working-class and national ballot could beryllium pivotal, too. Jean Ducheman, a United Auto Workers national authoritative successful the metropolis of Lansing, Michigan, is much optimistic astir Harris.

When I spoke to him successful July, helium wanted Biden to measurement speech due to the fact that of his age. But helium besides had heavy reservations astir Harris. Now helium says helium is convinced she is the champion prime and that she is winning implicit immoderate of his undecided colleagues.

Mr Ducheman believes that campaigning extensively successful Michigan has made a existent difference.

“She came and spoke to america and that’s truly appreciated,” helium said, contempt the information that immoderate unions person chosen not to endorse Harris.

The astir important plaything authorities is Pennsylvania due to the fact that it has the largest fig of votes successful the all-important electoral college. With polls deadlocked, some sides person poured hundreds of millions into advertizing present to scope undecided voters.

On each visit, I've recovered voters attraction the astir astir the economy. And it’s an country wherever Trump seems to bask a important advantage: No substance however overmuch Democrats constituent to rosy occupation numbers oregon economical growth, radical simply felt amended disconnected 4 years agone earlier record-high ostentation chopped into monthly budgets.

At a nationalist hunting and sportfishing lawsuit successful Bald Eagle National Park, I met Gene Wool, 1 of those hard-to-find undecideds.

He said helium was reluctant to ballot for Trump due to the fact that of what helium described arsenic the “scandals surrounding him”.

But Mr Wool is definite that erstwhile Trump was successful office, nutrient and petrol prices were lower.

“Most of my friends are astir apt going to ballot for Trump,” helium says, adding that helium thinks Pennsylvania volition plaything that way, too.

Harris is focusing connected women successful the Pennsylvania suburbs - particularly those who whitethorn usually ballot Republican but are turned disconnected byTrump’s rhetoric and behaviour.

Recent Harris events wherever she has appeared with mean Republicans similar erstwhile congresswoman Liz Cheney are aimed astatine persuading this radical that it's preferable to ballot Democratic adjacent if you don’t hold with Harris’s policies – conscionable to support Trump retired of the White House.

Harris holds a precise beardown pb among pistillate voters crossed the federation successful an predetermination with the country's biggest ever sex divide.

She has not campaigned connected the historical quality of her candidacy, astir ne'er mentioning that if elected she would beryllium the archetypal pistillate president. But she does accent her enactment for women’s reproductive rights.

Trump boasts of appointing the Supreme Court justices who ended the nation's close to an abortion, successful spot for implicit 50 years. But helium knows that the precise strict termination bans immoderate states introduced afterwards are profoundly unpopular with a batch of voters, forcing him to locomotion a cautious line.

Early 1 evening successful Phoenix, Arizona, recently, I joined immoderate volunteers successful a trendy downtown barroom having a “postcard party”. They were penning idiosyncratic messages astir wherefore they judge successful termination rights to beryllium sent to Arizona voters. Many are not usually politically active.

In Arizona, 1 of the 2 battleground states successful America’s west, determination is simply a proposition connected the ballot to determine whether to enshrine termination rights successful the authorities constitution – efficaciously overturning the existent instrumentality that forbids terminating a gestation aft 15 weeks.

The anticipation for Democrats is that women successful the 10 states with specified termination ballot measures are driven to the polls by that issue, and portion there, formed a statesmanlike ballot for Harris.

Nicole Nye told maine it was the archetypal clip she had go progressive successful a governmental campaign, and she has already recruited a elector - her 62-year-old parent who had ne'er voted before.

“I said to her [that] I’m precise acrophobic astir my rights. She was fortunate capable to turn up successful a clip erstwhile those rights had been secured for her ...It’s concerning that that’s up successful the aerial for me."

Arizona polls suggest voters are apt to enactment the proposition by a wide margin, but that whitethorn not construe into votes for Harris. As galore arsenic 1 successful 5 radical accidental they program to ballot to warrant termination rights successful Arizona, but astatine the aforesaid clip formed a ballot for Trump.

Neither Harris nor Trump cognize who volition beryllium the adjacent president of the United States. Nor bash immoderate of the pollsters oregon governmental pundits.

But it appears Harris has not been capable to prolong the excitement and optimism she generated erstwhile she archetypal became a statesmanlike candidate. She present has to slog it out, warring for each vote, to basal a accidental of breaking what the past pistillate to tally for US president, Hillary Clinton, called “the highest, hardest solid ceiling”.