Has Putin's war failed and what does Russia want?

When Vladimir Putin sent up to 200,000 soldiers into Ukraine connected 24 February 2022, helium wrongly assumed helium could expanse into the capital, Kyiv, successful a substance of days and depose the government.

After a bid of humiliating retreats, his archetypal penetration program has intelligibly failed, but Russia's warfare is not yet lost.

Even now, Russia's person describes the biggest European penetration since the extremity of World War Two arsenic a "special subject operation". Not the full-scale warfare that has bombed civilians crossed Ukraine and near much than 13 cardinal either arsenic refugees overseas oregon displaced wrong their ain country.

His declared extremity connected 24 February 2022 was to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine and not inhabit it by force, days aft backing independency for eastbound Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014.

He vowed to support radical from 8 years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide - a Russian propaganda assertion with nary instauration successful reality. He spoke of preventing Nato from gaining a foothold successful Ukraine, past added different nonsubjective of ensuring Ukraine's neutral status.

President Putin ne'er said it retired loud, but precocious connected the docket was toppling the authorities of Ukraine's elected president. "The force has designated maine arsenic people fig one; my household is people fig two," said Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian troops made 2 attempts to tempest the statesmanlike compound, according to his adviser.

Russian claims of Ukrainian Nazis committing genocide ne'er added up, but Russian state-run quality bureau Ria Novosti explained that "denazification is inevitably besides de-Ukrainisation" - successful effect, erasing the modern authorities of Ukraine.

How Putin changed his warfare aims

A period into the penetration and his run goals were dramatically scaled backmost aft a retreat from Kyiv and Chernihiv. The main extremity became the "liberation of Donbas" - broadly referring to Ukraine's 2 concern regions successful the eastbound of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Forced into further retreats from Kharkiv successful the north-east and Kherson successful the south, Russia's aims stay unchanged, but it has shown small occurrence successful achieving them.

Those reverses connected the battlefield rushed Russia's person into annexing 4 Ukrainian provinces past September, without having afloat power of immoderate of them: neither Luhansk oregon Donetsk successful the east, nor Kherson oregon Zaporizhzhia to the south.

President Putin was forced into Russia's archetypal mobilisation since World War Two, though it was partial and constricted to immoderate 300,000 reservists.

A warfare of attrition is present taking spot on an progressive beforehand enactment of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are tiny and rare. What was meant to beryllium a speedy cognition is present a protracted warfare that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. Any realistic imaginable of neutrality for Ukraine is agelong gone.

President Putin warned successful December that the warfare "could beryllium a lengthy process", but past added aboriginal that Russia's extremity was "not to rotation the flywheel of subject conflict", but to extremity it.

The biggest occurrence President Putin tin laic assertion to is establishing a onshore span from Russia's borderline to Crimea, annexed illegally successful 2014, truthful it is nary longer reliant connected its span implicit the Kerch Strait.

He has spoken of the seizure of this territory, which includes the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol, arsenic a "significant effect for Russia". The Sea of Azov, wrong the Kerch Strait, "has go Russia's interior sea", helium declared, pointing retired that adjacent Russian Tsar Peter the Great did not negociate that.

Beyond seizing a territorial corridor to Crimea, Russia's bloody, unprovoked warfare has been a catastrophe for itself and the state it was unleashed on. So far, it has achieved small much than exposing the brutality and inadequacy of the Russian military.

Russia's warnings to the West against arming Ukraine person gone unheeded, with assurances of Western enactment for "as agelong arsenic it takes".

Ukraine's artillery was boosted by superior Himars missiles and the committedness of German Leopard 2 tanks.

But this warfare is not over. The combat for Donbas continues. Russia has captured the municipality of Soledar this twelvemonth and has hopes of seizing the eastbound metropolis of Bakhmut connected the roadworthy to cardinal cities to the west, and of recapturing territory it mislaid past autumn.

Putin watchers judge helium volition question to widen power of the 4 regions that helium has declared to beryllium portion of Russia, not conscionable successful Donbas, but towards the cardinal metropolis of Zaporizhzhia.

Should helium request to, President Putin could widen mobilisation and resistance retired the war. Russia is simply a atomic powerfulness and helium has indicated helium would beryllium prepared, if necessary, to usage atomic weapons to support Russia and cling connected to occupied Ukrainian land. "We volition surely marque usage of each limb systems disposable to us. This is not a bluff," helium warned.

Kyiv believes Russia is besides seeking to depose the pro-European authorities successful Moldova, wherever Russian troops are based successful the breakaway portion of Transnistria bordering Ukraine.

President Putin, 70, has sought to region himself from subject failures, but his authority, astatine slightest extracurricular Russia, has been shredded and helium makes fewer trips beyond its borders.

At home, Russia's system connected the aboveground appears to person weathered a bid of Western sanctions, though its fund shortage has soared and lipid and state gross has fallen dramatically.

Any effort to gauge his popularity is fraught with difficulty.

Dissent successful Russia is highly risky, with jailhouse sentences handed retired for anyone spreading "fake news" astir the Russian military. Those opposing Russia's enactment person either fled or, arsenic with main absorption fig Alexei Navalny, been thrown into prison.

The seeds of this warfare were sown successful 2013, erstwhile Moscow persuaded Ukraine's pro-Russian person to scrap a planned pact with the European Union, prompting protests that yet brought him down and led to Russia seizing Crimea and staging a land-grab successful the east.

Four months into Russia's 2022 invasion, the EU granted Ukraine campaigner presumption and Kyiv is pushing to beryllium accepted arsenic soon arsenic it can.

Russia's long-time person was besides hopeless to forestall Ukraine from entering Nato's orbit, but his effort to blasted the Western antiaircraft confederation for the warfare is false.

Not lone did Ukraine reportedly hold earlier the warfare a provisional woody with Russia to enactment retired of Nato, but successful March, President Zelensky offered to support Ukraine arsenic a non-aligned, non-nuclear state: "It's a information and it indispensable beryllium recognised."

Nato subordinate states person progressively sent Ukraine aerial defence systems to support its cities, arsenic good arsenic rocket systems, artillery and drones that helped crook the tide against Russia's invasion.

But it is not to blasted for the war. Nato's enlargement comes arsenic a effect to the Russian menace - Sweden and Finland lone applied to articulation due to the fact that of the invasion.

Blaming Nato's enlargement eastwards is simply a Russian communicative that has gained immoderate crushed successful Europe. Before the war, President Putin demanded Nato crook the timepiece backmost to 1997 and region its forces and subject infrastructure from Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics.

In his eyes, the West promised backmost successful 1990 that Nato would grow "not an inch to the east", yet did truthful anyway.That was earlier the illness of the Soviet Union, however, truthful the committedness made to past Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev referred simply to East Germany successful the discourse of a reunified Germany.

Mr Gorbachev said aboriginal that "the taxable of Nato enlargement was ne'er discussed" astatine the time.

Nato maintains it ne'er intended to deploy combat troops connected its eastbound flank, until Russia annexed Crimea illegally successful 2014.