“I don’t prevarication awake astatine nighttime worrying astir the atrocious authorities they are going to pass. Because I don’t deliberation they’re going to walk it,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.).
Awaiting the result of conscionable 1 existent toss-up race, Republicans volition person a bulk of either 4 oregon 5 — giving McCarthy the sparest of margins of immoderate different Congress astatine the commencement of its word since 1931. Not to notation that he’s already vowed to bash distant with Pelosi-era proxy voting, making each imaginable lack a caller challenge.
That means governing volition beryllium a 24/7 obstacle people for House Republicans who are already facing large questions astir their docket adjacent year, from termination argumentation to Ukraine assistance to impeaching President Joe Biden and immoderate Cabinet members. As Democrats hole their retreat into the minority, galore are less-than-fondly recalling their ain 2 years of vote-wrangling and level delays portion wishing their GOP colleagues luck.
“It was wonderful,” quipped Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a subordinate of Pelosi’s whip squad who remembered countless after-midnight telephone calls this Congress to fastener down votes for galore of his party’s immense bills. “That was a regular routine, arsenic a substance of fact.”
Democrats accidental if there’s thing they learned implicit the past 2 years, erstwhile they, too, navigated a historically minuscule majority, it’s conscionable however fragile those numbers tin be. While Pelosi and her caucus started retired with a 10-seat borderline successful January 2021, it was whittled down to arsenic fewer arsenic 3 votes during those 2 years.
Some Democrats said they’re unconvinced the GOP league tin grounds the aforesaid exacting subject that it took their enactment to walk everything from a policing bundle to Pentagon backing to adjacent their ain Democratic budget. Thanks to Pelosi, her enactment yet passed respective immense bills, including President Joe Biden’s multitrillion-dollar health, taxation and clime package, with little than a fistful of votes to spare.
“They’re going to beryllium fraught with fractures and friction and challenges and apostates. I privation them good successful trying to negociate that crowd,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.).
And Connolly, who served successful the number nether erstwhile GOP enactment struggles, cautioned that McCarthy could person adjacent much problems managing the league implicit the adjacent 2 years than his astir caller predecessors, some of whom struggled with Freedom Caucus rebellions: “Paul Ryan and John Boehner some had a bigger majority, and they couldn’t workout control.”
Both of those erstwhile speakers struggled astatine times to adjacent walk bills done their chamber. Then-Speaker John Boehner, for instance, watched his ain party’s 2013 workplace measure neglect spectacularly connected the floor, and often had to trust connected Democrats to walk spending bills. Years later, erstwhile Speaker Paul Ryan was forced to retreat the GOP’s effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act aft a revolt from the center. And Ryan oversaw 3 authorities shutdowns during his comparatively little four-year tenure successful the speakership.
McCarthy’s borderline is smaller than either of those 2 faced. Further complicating his mathematics problem, Republicans person pledged to bash distant with the cushion of pandemic-related proxy voting, which gave Pelosi captious breathing country erstwhile Democrats weren’t capable to ballot successful idiosyncratic for immoderate fig of reasons.
Sometimes it was a coronavirus infection, a earthy catastrophe successful the territory oregon a household exigency backmost home. Other times it was an out-of-state fundraiser oregon a household vacation. Regardless, Pelosi and her whip squad could guarantee those members would inactive ballot — guaranteeing they had the numbers to walk their priorities contempt immoderate idiosyncratic crises.
While Republicans accidental McCarthy volition undoubtedly instrumentality to his vow to prohibition proxy voting — which they’ve utilized to impeach Democrats of not showing up to enactment — privately immoderate GOP lawmakers admit they’re disquieted astir their tiny margins, fixed that there’s bound to beryllium astatine slightest a fewer absences from each level vote.
And there’s ever the anticipation that the Republican bulk could turn adjacent slimmer. Democrats, for instance, had six members resign during the existent Congress for jobs elsewhere, including the White House. Republicans had 4 members resign — including one who was convicted of campaign-related felonies. In all, six members died: 5 Republicans and 1 Democrat.
The timing of a House member’s replacement tin alteration dramatically from 1 authorities to the next, which astatine times has analyzable Democrats’ legislative plans successful the existent Congress.
Special elections tin hap wrong arsenic small arsenic a fewer months oregon instrumentality person to a year. For example, the successor to Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.), who died successful bureau successful April 2021, wasn’t sworn successful until January 2022.
McCarthy, meanwhile, appears apt to commencement the coming twelvemonth with a bulk borderline astir fractional the size of what Democrats started with 2 years ago.
It’s not wide precisely erstwhile the last 2 House races volition beryllium decided — 1 successful California’s Central Valley and 1 successful occidental Colorado. GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s hostile has already called her to concede the Colorado race.
The different uncalled spot remains a existent toss-up, though GOP campaigner John Duarte retains a pb of astir 600 votes implicit his Democratic opponent, Adam Gray.
But whether it’s a four- oregon five-seat majority, House Rules Chair Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said Republicans would request to marque plans to compromise either mode — possibly adjacent with Democrats.
And portion Democrats’ reluctant members were consenting to travel to the bargaining table, helium insisted GOP members wouldn’t instrumentality the aforesaid approach: “They conscionable accidental nary to everything and they’re much funny successful getting much Twitter followers than they are successful legislating.”
Ally Mutnick and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.
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