How the College Football Playoff will be impacted this weekend

Week 7 volition acceptable the people for the remainder of this year's College Football Playoff race.

Several times successful this abstraction this year, I've lamented a peculiar week's slate hardly mattering to the CFP race, barring an implosion by a contender against a overmuch weaker opponent. No 1 would marque immoderate specified assertions astir this week, wherever we person respective games with 2 teams who could astatine slightest conceivably marque a playoff tally facing each other.

In fact, 4 of the 10 scheduled games with the highest interaction connected the CFP contention this play are successful Week 7, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

How bash we measurement impact? It's based connected a operation of some team's playoff leverage and the likelihood of each broadside winning. This is important due to the fact that if Alabama plays Rice successful a fixed week, the Crimson Tide would person a immense magnitude of playoff leverage since the downside of a nonaccomplishment is truthful great. But the nonaccomplishment would besides beryllium highly unlikely. Thus, the request for Playoff Impact, which takes that into account.

So let's interruption down those 4 games and however their outcomes could displacement the playoff race, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Alabama astatine Tennessee

Playoff Impact Game rank: 2

Alabama's playoff chances with win: 88%
Alabama's playoff chances with loss: 62%
Tennessee's playoff chances with win: 48%
Tennessee's playoff chances with loss: 12%

FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor person been connected Tennessee for immoderate clip now, giving the Volunteers an 11% changeable to scope the CFP each the mode backmost successful Week 3. Two wins implicit ranked SEC opponents later, and the Volunteers are existent playoff contenders arsenic they caput into a captious matchup against the Crimson Tide.

Tennessee controls its ain destiny, certainly. But the spot of its docket -- sixth-hardest wide -- and prime (the Volunteers fertile No. 7 successful FPI) means it has wiggle room, too. If Tennessee beats Alabama connected Saturday, it opens the doorway for the Volunteers to suffer to Georgia aboriginal successful the year, miss retired connected the SEC title crippled and get successful arsenic an 11-1 non-champion. In that scenario, Tennessee would person a 63% changeable astatine the playoff, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The inverse is besides wherefore the Volunteers tin prolong a nonaccomplishment and inactive person a chance: They could aboriginal bushed Georgia and spell connected to triumph the SEC title crippled and beryllium a shoo-in ... oregon adjacent suffer the title crippled and person an extracurricular shot.

Alabama tin spend to suffer Saturday -- should the Crimson Tide triumph retired the remainder of the mode they would beryllium a playoff fastener -- it conscionable would instrumentality distant a clump of the breathing country the Tide are afforded by being FPI's No. 1-ranked squad and having the third-most hard docket successful assemblage football.

A 2nd nonaccomplishment to, accidental Ole Miss, would driblet Alabama's playoff chances to 28%. Still a accidental due to the fact that of the aforementioned factors moving successful its favour -- but a longer shot.

Penn State astatine Michigan

Playoff Impact Game rank: 4

Penn State's playoff chances with win: 15%
Penn State's playoff chances with loss: 2%
Michigan's playoff chances with win: 47%
Michigan's playoff chances with loss: 12%

Michigan's biggest trial volition travel connected Nov. 26 successful Columbus. Do the Wolverines need to triumph against Ohio State to scope the CFP? The reply to that question is decidedly yes if they suffer to Penn State connected Saturday, but lone possibly if Michigan beats the Nittany Lions. A script wherever Michigan wins against Penn State, past wins retired until a nonaccomplishment astatine Ohio State and misses the Big Ten title crippled inactive yields a 48% changeable astatine a berth. Not bad! Additionally, if Michigan wins retired until the Big Ten title crippled but past loses there, it has a 70% changeable astatine the CFP.

All of those options are wiped distant with a nonaccomplishment to Penn State: Michigan would person to triumph retired aft that. Losing to Penn State besides opens the doorway to a satellite wherever Michigan beats Ohio State but does not triumph the Big Ten East.

Penn State is successful a somewhat akin -- but worse -- boat. It tin bushed Michigan, suffer to Ohio State and past not scope the Big Ten title crippled and inactive scope the CFP -- but it would lone person a 31% accidental to bash truthful successful that scenario. The difference? FPI believes Michigan is astir a touchdown amended than Penn State successful presumption of squad quality, though this is somewhat mitigated by Penn State's much hard docket (23rd astir hard successful FBS to Michigan's 39th).

Clemson astatine Florida State

Playoff Impact Game rank: 8

Clemson's playoff chances with win: 61%
Clemson's playoff chances with loss: 26%

There's lone 1 playoff contender successful this crippled but it inactive ranks highly successful presumption of interaction due to the fact that it has truthful overmuch leverage for Clemson successful a contention the Tigers perfectly could lose. FPI gives Florida State a 27% accidental to triumph Saturday.

The crushed this matters truthful overmuch is two-fold:

1. Clemson is not definite to gain a berth arsenic a one-loss ACC champion. Should Clemson suffer to Florida State and past triumph out, it would person a 67% accidental astatine the playoff. That's a merchandise of having conscionable the 54th astir hard docket successful the FBS and being lone the sixth champion team, according to FPI.

2. Clemson has different tricky matchup ahead: astatine Notre Dame. The Tigers volition beryllium favored but FPI lone gives them a 65% accidental to triumph that game.

USC astatine Utah

Playoff Impact Game rank: 9

USC's playoff chances with win: 34%
USC's playoff chances with loss: 10%
Utah's playoff chances with win: 2%
Utah's playoff chances with loss:

Like Clemson, USC is somewhat hampered by its spot of docket (55th astir hard successful FBS) and the information that FPI doesn't presumption the Trojans arsenic 1 of the 4 best teams (FPI rank: 10th). So if the Trojans were to suffer astatine Utah and spell connected to triumph out, they would lone beryllium a coin flip to get into the CFP arsenic a one-loss Pac-12 champion astatine that point.

And USC, too, has immoderate different non-gimmes left: astatine UCLA (USC has a 62% accidental to win) and vs. Notre Dame (69%). But neither are arsenic hard arsenic this roadworthy contention astatine Utah, which FPI respects rather a spot (the Utes fertile ninth, 1 spot up of USC).

Utah itself is not totally retired of the moving here, contempt 2 losses connected its résumé already. If the Utes triumph out, they would person a 10% changeable astatine the playoff arsenic a two-loss champ.