2:52 PM ET
Jeff Carlisle and Gabriel Tan
DOHA, Qatar -- Less than 24 hours from kickoff, the play surrounding the United States men's nationalist team's lucifer against Iran connected Tuesday has reached fever pitch. Not lone is determination everything to play for connected the field, determination is simply a increasing discontent betwixt the geopolitical rivals distant from the pitch.
Throughout this World Cup, discussions involving Iran person revolved astir conditions backmost home, wherever 410 protestors person been killed successful the 2 months of unrest pursuing the decease of a 22-year-old pistillate portion successful custody of the country's morality police. In an effort to amusement solidarity with those protestors, the US Soccer Federation concisely displayed Iran's nationalist emblem connected societal media without the emblem of the Islamic Republic, resulting successful fierce backlash, the Iranian authorities accusing the federation of removing the sanction of God from their nationalist flag.
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That's the backdrop that Tuesday's group-stage finale volition play retired successful beforehand of. On the field, the 2 countries volition beryllium playing for a spot successful the knockout rounds. The US beryllium 3rd successful Group B connected 2 points, pursuing draws against Wales and England, and indispensable bushed Carlos Queiroz's broadside if they're to marque the circular of 16. Second-placed Iran, meanwhile, volition beforehand with the radical signifier with immoderate effect different than defeat.
This lucifer is shaping up to beryllium 1 of the astir aggravated contests of the radical stage. So however volition it play retired erstwhile the crippled kicks off? ESPN asked Jeff Carlisle and Gabriel Tan to interruption down however these 2 teams lucifer up.
What's worked for the US? And what hasn't?
The US person been outstanding defensively truthful far, which has been a pleasant surprise. The halfway of the defence was thought to beryllium a anemic spot, but Tim Ream's insertion into the lineup alongside Walker Zimmerman has worked wonders. They haven't done it unsocial either, with Tyler Adams winning an awesome 85.7% of his tackles. As a team, the US person been effectual with their pressing, flummoxing England, portion Matt Turner has been coagulated successful goal. The lone hiccup -- and yes, it was a large 1 -- was the precocious punishment Zimmerman conceded against Wales.
The large contented for the Americans has been their inability to find the nett connected a accordant basis. Manager Gregg Berhalter has felt that his squad has created chances but hasn't finished them off. There is immoderate information to that successful that the US are underperforming successful presumption of expected goals (xG) (1.42) compared to existent goals scored (1). The world is that xG people ranks 26th retired of 32 teams successful the World Cup, and the US are lone tied for 15th successful presumption of accidental instauration with 14.
A large occupation is that the US person struggled to execute successful transition, with the last walk often going awry. The Americans person had nary occurrence connected acceptable pieces either, which was thought to beryllium a spot of this team. Against Wales, this was down to immoderate mediocre set-piece deliveries by Christian Pulisic, though this was rectified against England. -- Carlisle
What's worked for Iran? And what hasn't?
A nightmare commencement to the tourney saw Iran autumn to a lopsided 6-2 nonaccomplishment to England, and the 1 happening that intelligibly did not enactment was Queiroz's overly cautious approach, considering the magnitude of goals they ended up conceding contempt fielding a 5-4-1 enactment filled with defensive-minded players. The information that the Three Lions were connected opus that nighttime arsenic good did not assistance Iran's cause, but the outing was not without positives arsenic prima striker Mehdi Taremi showed what helium is susceptible of with 2 goals.
It besides looked arsenic though Queiroz mightiness person written disconnected the England necktie arsenic 1 that Team Melli could spend to lose, arsenic helium near regular archetypal teamers Sardar Azmoun and Saeid Ezatolahi connected the bench.
Four days later, a much-improved Iran showed what they are made of arsenic they dominated Wales, adjacent if they near it precocious to assertion a 2-0 triumph courtesy of a mates of injury-time strikes. With the two-pronged onslaught of Taremi and Azmoun ever offering an option, and with Iran's wide players often breaking with gait and stretching the play, the Welsh defence was carved isolated and the Iranians mightiness consciousness they could person won by an adjacent bigger margin.
The quality betwixt erstwhile Iran are connected the backmost ft and erstwhile they privation to onslaught with intent is strikingly apparent. -- Tan
2:15
Tim Ream and Walker Zimmerman connection their enactment to the Iranian radical aft U.S. Soccer removed societal media posts including the Iranian emblem without the Islamic Republic symbol.
Where this crippled volition beryllium won and lost
I deliberation 2 parts of the tract volition beryllium key. On the antiaircraft side, the US volition request to snuff retired Iran's modulation opportunities. Since Iran lone request a gully to advance, Team Melli are expected to beryllium backmost and effort to sorb unit and past deed their opponents connected the break. That volition enactment a premium connected the US making definite that they enactment locked successful connected Iran's attackers, adjacent erstwhile the Americans person the ball.
On the attacking side, the absorption punishment country is wherever the US volition request to beryllium overmuch better, some successful presumption of transportation and finishing. It is besides a crippled that is crying retired for the method quality of Giovanni Reyna. Whether that means starting him astatine striker oregon retired wide remains to beryllium seen. Berhalter said connected Monday that helium wasn't looking to instrumentality with his 3 strikers -- Jesus Ferreira, Josh Sargent, Haji Wright -- but fixed the stakes involved, helium needs to fig retired a mode to get his champion attacking players connected the field, and with determination apt to beryllium small abstraction down the defense, that means Reyna's cleanable touches volition and creativity volition beryllium needed. -- Carlisle
Queiroz is alert that helium has 2 top-class strikers successful Taremi and Azmoun. In particular, the erstwhile already showed what helium tin bash against prime absorption successful England, and is nary one-hit wonderment either, having scored 5 times for FC Porto successful this season's Champions League alone.
The cardinal to triumph connected Tuesday, arsenic it was against Wales, could conscionable beryllium ensuring some of them person a dependable proviso of chances successful one-on-one situations. While some are decent successful the air, Iran could beryllium amended disconnected being much intricate successful the last 3rd arsenic it worked good for them against some the English and the Welsh, whose backlines arguably person akin carnal profiles arsenic the United States.
Still, successful bid to commencement moving the shot successful and astir the absorption area, they volition person to beryllium successful possession first, and that is wherever the motor country conflict betwixt United States duo Adams and Weston McKennie and Iran's Ezatolahi and Ahmad Nourollahi could beryllium pivotal. There is besides the substance of curbing the power of Pulisic and, having rotated betwixt his right-backs, it volition beryllium absorbing to spot if Queiroz sticks with the extremity scoring Ramin Rezaeian oregon reverts to the much defensive-minded Sadegh Moharrami. -- Tan
Predictions
US 2-1: I deliberation the US get it done, but by the thinnest of margins. Look for McKennie to get one, if not some goals, via a acceptable piece. -- Carlisle
Iran 2-1: Team Melli volition person nary shortage of information to emergence to the juncture and, for the 2nd tourney running, they really person the prime to backmost it up. Last clip out, Spain and Portugal proved excessively overmuch to flooded successful the end, but Iran volition judge that -- having seen disconnected Wales -- they tin bash the aforesaid against the US to scope the circular of 16. -- Tan
English (US)