How USMNT vs. England might look based on their form so far

The bully news: The United States some played and scored successful a World Cup lucifer for the archetypal clip successful 3,065 days. In itself, that is origin for celebration. They played really, truly good for 45 minutes, too.

The atrocious news: Matches are 90 minutes long. Wales made fantabulous strategical adjustments (and a cardinal substitution) astatine half-time that the US struggled to relationship for. Manager Gregg Berhalter utilized lone 1 substitute earlier the 74th infinitesimal and per Expected Goals (xG), Wales ended up creating 4 of the champion six shots successful the lucifer contempt the Americans' first-half domination. The US astir survived with their pb intact, but Walker Zimmerman's awkward foul connected Gareth Bale acceptable up a punishment that Bale drilled into the net. A semipermanent 1-0 pb for the US turned into a 1-1 gully that could person easy been worse.

More atrocious news, perhaps: England looked spectacular earlier successful the day, walloping what has historically been a defense-centric Iran squad by an eye-popping 6-2 margin. While securing a gully successful your opening lucifer doesn't consciousness similar the worst result successful the world, the US is an adjacent bigger underdog against England connected Friday than earlier and is apt to person 1 constituent heading into its last match.

FiveThirtyEight's Soccer Power Index gave the US a 53% accidental of advancing to the knockout rounds heading into the tournament, and 1 time successful that has slipped to 45%. It could person been worse, but it needed to beryllium better.

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Let's dive into the stats from Group B's archetypal 2 matches and what they mightiness accidental astir Friday's USA-England lucifer arsenic good arsenic the remainder of the radical stage.

The US perfectly dominated the archetypal fractional (and got small from it)

By immoderate semi-common measurement successful today's precocious stat arsenal, the US manhandled Wales successful the archetypal half. They controlled 66% of the possession. They made a combined 98 progressive carries and progressive passes to Wales' 24. They had 103 touches successful the attacking 3rd to Wales' 20. Wales got adjacent capable to effort conscionable 2 shots; 1 was from 30 meters out, and some severely missed the target.

This was Gregg Berhalter's dream. The US was controlling the enactment and hogging the ball. As has been progressively customary, however, they were besides doing precise small with the ball.

The emblematic ratio of touches successful the attacking 3rd to touches successful the container is astir 6.9-to-1; astir 14.5% of the erstwhile are besides the latter. While it's evidently large to person the shot connected your opponent's broadside of the field, it lone means truthful overmuch if you ne'er bash thing unsafe with it. Of the Americans' 103 touches successful the attacking third, lone 9 were successful the container (8.8%). Only 2 of those came from starting center-forward Josh Sargent, and nary aft the 28th minute.

The US attempted lone 3 shots portion doing each of this dominating -- 1 was a header from Sargent that helium couldn't person from a pugnacious angle, 1 was a why-the-hell-not weaponry from fullback Sergino Dest (30 meters retired with an xG of 0.02) and one, of course, was Timothy Weah's gorgeous 36th-minute extremity disconnected of a beauteous provender from Christian Pulisic.

They scored! It was amended than nothing! But aft Weah's goal, the US wouldn't effort different changeable for 39 minutes.

Aimless possession is not a caller occupation for the United States. In 14 World Cup qualification matches, they attempted 12 oregon less shots successful six of them, and they combined 12 oregon less shots with implicit 60% possession 3 times. In their 7 losses and draws, they averaged 10.7 shots from 57% possession. Oh, and successful their 2 September friendlies, against World Cup teams Japan and Saudi Arabia, they managed conscionable 11 shots combined (two connected goal) with astatine slightest 55% possession successful some matches.

It was astir apt excessively overmuch to inquire that this weakness abruptly get magically fixed without immoderate large signifier clip oregon alterations to the subordinate pool. But for arsenic good arsenic the US played successful the archetypal fractional -- and beatified smokes, was the midfield peculiarly ascendant -- it doesn't truly mean overmuch if you aren't getting thing retired of it.

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Kasey Keller says that with truthful galore players lacking crippled enactment successful caller months, fittingness could beryllium an contented for the United States for the remainder of the World Cup.

Berhalter got outmaneuvered

Sometimes the champion tactics don't person to beryllium the astir originative ones. With Wales amazed and frustrated by the mode the US was choosing to press, manager Rob Page went with a alternatively old-school idea: sub successful a large feline up beforehand truthful you tin play the shot implicit the press.

AFC's Bournemouth 6-foot-5 striker Kieffer Moore acceptable the bill. The 30-year old, who has spent overmuch of his vocation successful the English little levels but has scored 4 times successful 15 Premier League matches this season, gave Welsh defenders and midfielders a large people to whom they could either lob a agelong shot oregon nonstop a shot successful unfastened spaces. He pulled the American backline each implicit the spot and suddenly, Wales was possessing the shot a batch much successful the attacking broadside of the pitch.

After mostly receiving passes aboriginal successful the 2nd half, Moore started doing immoderate creating arsenic well. His flicking header disconnected of a country astir tied the lucifer successful the 65th minute, and helium completed 4 of Wales' 17 progressive passes successful the 2nd fractional arsenic well.

By the 55th infinitesimal oregon so, the tract had tilted good successful Wales' direction. Even erstwhile the US got the ball, their players were positioned truthful profoundly that attempts astatine counter-attacks were often solo affairs that ended earlier they began. One substitution had wholly changed the complexion of the match.

Meanwhile, though the US came into the World Cup disquieted astir the fittingness levels of a fig of cardinal players returning from wounded -- and some Weston McKennie and Pulisic were seen limping astatine times -- Berhalter didn't marque his archetypal substitution until the 66th infinitesimal (Brenden Aaronson for McKennie.) He didn't marque different sub until the 74th minute, and helium didn't usage his 5th and last sub until the game's last stages; Jordan Morris was connected the transportation agelong capable to effort a azygous pass. But hey, congratulations to him: he's played successful a World Cup now. Gio Reyna and Jesus Ferreira, meanwhile, person not.

From a possession standpoint, Wales didn't predominate the 2nd fractional to the aforesaid grade that the US controlled the first.

• Touches successful the attacking third, 2nd half: USA 79, Wales 76

• Touches successful the box, 2nd half: Wales 16, USA 12

Still, adjacent arsenic caller attackers entered the match, the US attempted lone 3 shots worthy 0.13 xG. Wales attempted 5 worthy 1.38. Take retired Gareth Bale's punishment -- his lone changeable effort of the lucifer and 1 of lone 35 touches -- and Wales inactive attempted 4 shots worthy 0.59 xG.

One squad really turned its unsafe possessions into opportunities, and it wasn't the United States.

Other cardinal stats from USA-Wales

• The US attempted 30 crosses to Wales' 14, but Wales really completed much of theirs -- 5 of 14 (36%) vs. 4 of 30 (13%.)

• In what I telephone modulation possessions -- possessions that commencement extracurricular of the attacking 3rd and past 20 oregon less seconds -- the US scored its lone extremity and created 0.41 xG. Wales created conscionable 0.09 xG with nary goals. Unfortunately, the good mostly dried up astatine half-time: Of the US's 15 modulation possessions that ended successful the attacking third, 11 came successful the archetypal half. (So did the goal, obviously.)

• While Wales created 4 changeable attempts worthy a combined 0.65 xG from acceptable pieces, the US created conscionable 1 worthy 0.07. Five Pulisic corners created precise small danger. This was different unfortunate continuation: In World Cup qualifying, they averaged conscionable 2.3 shots per lucifer from acceptable pieces and scored conscionable 3 times, each successful the aforesaid lucifer (February's 3-0 triumph implicit Honduras.)

England and Iran played a lucifer neither of its managers prefers

Dominate the ball, get your goal, past parkland the bus. It was the English mode -- the Gareth Southgate way, successful peculiar -- during their tally to the last of Euro 2020. When tied, they averaged 54% possession, 6.8 passes per possession and 0.13 shots per possession; erstwhile ahead: 45% possession, 5.6 passes per possession, 0.06 shots per possession.

Against Iran connected Monday, however, they went up aboriginal successful the archetypal fractional and conscionable kept close connected dominating. For the 35 minutes oregon truthful that this crippled was tied, it was one-way traffic: 82% possession for England and 0.26 shots per possession to Iran's 0.00. Iran's starting goalkeeper, Alireza Beiranvand, had to permission owed to a nasty-looking wounded aft 20 minutes, but Iran was inactive mostly limiting bully looks, arsenic is their customized -- opponents averaged lone 0.08 shots per possession and scored conscionable 5 goals successful 14 matches. But erstwhile Jude Bellingham scored connected a beauteous header astatine the 34:10 mark, the floodgates opened.

A person look astatine Jude Bellingham's archetypal extremity for @England 🤩🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 pic.twitter.com/rSxkq6kn6Z

England was up 3-0 by half-time, and against a squad that is peculiarly babelike connected crippled state, this 1 was agelong over.

To Iran's credit, they opened things up precocious successful the lucifer and looked beauteous unsafe doing so. Porto striker Mehdi Taremi attempted 3 high-quality shots (including a penalty) and scored doubly aft the 64th minute, and Bayer Leverkusen's Sardar Azmoun knocked a breakaway changeable disconnected the crossbar successful the eighth infinitesimal of stoppage time. England substitutes Marcus Rashford and Jack Grealish matched Taremi's precocious goals erstwhile the lucifer was good beyond doubt, but the openness of the 2nd fractional was thing we don't thin to spot from either a Southgate squad oregon a Carlos Queiroz team. (The erstwhile Real Madrid manager began his 2nd stint with Iran successful September.)

All told, the teams combined for 21 shots worthy 3.86 xG; they enactment 10 of those shots connected people and 8 of those successful the net. It was an otherworldly tally of finishing for England -- unsustainably so, successful fact. Based connected the xG figures for their changeable attempts, determination was lone a 0.4% accidental they would people six goals from those shots. Still, they dominated the lucifer earlier things opened up, they were ridiculously crisp successful attack, and the scoring borderline allowed Southgate to get immoderate cardinal players -- Harry Maguire (subbed disconnected aft 70 minutes), Bukayo Saka (71), Mason Mount (71), Raheem Sterling (71) and Harry Kane (76) -- a spot of early-tournament rest.

England plays a antithetic athletics than Wales

The bully news, arsenic it were, astir the US playing England adjacent is that the Americans' problems with packed-in defenses doesn't truly apply. While Southgate surely reserves the close to parkland the autobus astatine times, they are fantabulous astatine cornering outmanned opponents into choky spaces.

Perhaps the astir unthinkable statistic from England's triumph connected Monday had thing to bash with shots oregon goals: England attempted 797 passes and 753 carries. In the past 2½ seasons successful the Premier League, lone 1 squad has managed some 750 passes and 750 carries successful the aforesaid match: Pep Guardiola's Manchester City, of course, successful a 4-3 triumph implicit Newcastle precocious successful 2020-21.

The shot dominance connected Monday was staggering. John Stones -- of Manchester City, people -- attempted 226 combined passes (117) and carries (109), portion Luke Shaw attempted 203, Bellingham 175, Declan Rice 183, Kieran Trippier 162 and Maguire 136. They dribbled guardant until Iran contested the ball, past they recovered a harmless passing option. Rinse, repeat. The Three Lions turned into Guardiola's City, and immoderate anticipation the US has of pulling an upset starts with disruption. While the members of the English defence are well-drilled against the press, speedy, high-motor Americans similar Ferreira and Aaronson mightiness beryllium needed conscionable to interruption their bushed whenever possible. It mightiness not work, but playing passively decidedly won't.

A look up to Iran: crippled authorities volition mean everything

If the US so loses to England connected Friday, determination are fundamentally 3 imaginable ways the Group B array volition look heading into the 3rd matchday.

• If Wales beats Iran: England 6 points, Wales 4, US 1, Iran 0

• If Wales and Iran draw: England 6, Wales 2, US 1, Iran 1

• If Iran beats Wales: England 6, Iran 3, Wales 1, US 1

Two of these 3 scenarios volition necessitate a US triumph implicit Iran (and perchance an England triumph implicit Wales) to advance, portion the mediate script would necessitate either a triumph oregon a gully with favorable extremity differentials elsewhere.

Because the US dropped the shot against Wales, then, they volition astir surely person to bushed Iran. And arsenic I wrote past week, Iran seems similar a much talented mentation of the frustrating CONCACAF stereotype (packed-in defenses, thing easy, minimal attacking) that gave the US fits during qualification. And if they pulled thing from the precocious stages of their nonaccomplishment to England, Iran mightiness beryllium a spot much assured successful onslaught moving forward, too.

After each the accent and play of the turmoil backmost home, Iran recovered their legs and played themselves into the England lucifer a spot late. If they crook that into affirmative momentum, they could beryllium an awfully pugnacious out. And they could beryllium the past squad the US plays successful the 2022 World Cup.