How voter turnout impacted Georgia Senate runoff results, Warnock's win - The Washington Post

1 year ago 64

December 7, 2022 astatine 1:16 p.m. EST

Warnock oregon Walker

gain implicit Nov. election

Percentage point

margin shift

D

R

+2

+4

+6

Atlanta

Augusta

Columbus

Savannah

Warnock oregon Walker

gain implicit Nov. election

Percentage constituent borderline shift

D

R

+2

+4

+6

Atlanta

Augusta

Henry County

+3.1D

Columbus

Savannah

Democrats padded their Senate bulk connected Tuesday nighttime acknowledgment successful portion to a rebuke of the Republican campaigner successful Georgia’s suburbs.

Turnout was somewhat little successful Tuesday’s runoff than successful the November wide election, by astir 400,000 voters, but Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) much than doubled his pb implicit Republican Herschel Walker. The Democrat led by astir 95,000 votes arsenic of Wednesday, besting his 37,000-vote borderline successful the wide election.

Both candidates fought to get voters backmost to the polls conscionable a period aft the Nov. 8 wide election. Runoff elections, triggered erstwhile nary campaigner receives much than 50 percent, regularly person little turnout. About 3.5 cardinal voters showed up for the runoff versus 3.9 cardinal successful November’s wide election.

Percentage constituent borderline shift

since November

D

R

+2

+4

+6

+4D

Urban counties

53K votes less than successful Nov.

Atlanta

+2.4D

Suburban counties

239K votes fewer

Augusta

Columbus

Savannah

+0.7D

Rural counties

102K votes fewer

Atlanta

Percentage constituent borderline displacement since November

D

R

+2

+4

+6

Urban counties

+4D

Suburban counties

+2.4D

Rural counties

+0.7D

53K votes less than successful Nov.

239K votes fewer

102K votes fewer

Augusta

Atlanta

Atlanta

Columbus

Savannah

Walker was seemingly incapable to crook retired the voters helium needed to offset Warnock’s advantages successful municipality and suburban areas. While Warnock won suburban areas by 190,000 votes successful November, helium led them by 223,000 successful the December runoff.

Walker, plagued by respective scandals during his campaign, had already shown weakness successful these areas: The ex-football prima had already underperformed Gov. Brian Kemp, besides a Republican, importantly successful the vote-rich Atlanta suburbs successful November.

Turnout alteration by party

and portion compared

to the Nov. election

Piedmont

Black Belt

Atlanta

8k

9k

13k

13k

24k

26k

32k

36k

36k

49k

Turnout alteration by enactment and portion compared to

the Nov. election

Piedmont

Black Belt

Atlanta

10k votes

fewer than

in Nov.

20k

24k

30k

40k

North Georgia had 49k less Republican

votes than successful Nov. Democratic votes only

decreased by astir 15k.

49k

That turnout drop, particularly successful Atlanta’s exurban counties successful North Georgia, wounded Walker. Forsyth County provided 66,000 votes successful Walker’s November outing but lone 58,000 successful December. In adjacent Cherokee County, Walker dropped from 81,000 to 72,000. Although Walker inactive won some counties, some shifted person toward Warnock this time.

That aforesaid inclination held existent successful the agrarian areas that Walker dominated: In the runoff, helium won agrarian areas by 319,000 votes, compared to his 358,000 pb determination successful November.

In a continued inclination from November, counties southbound of Atlanta delivered wide shifts toward Warnock. Diversifying Henry County, for instance, has moved toward Democrats faster than immoderate different successful Georgia, flipping from a Republican stronghold to a Democratic 1 successful lone a fewer years, The Post’s Theodoric Meyer reported connected Monday. A 10 percent driblet successful wide turnout resulted successful 3,400 less votes for Warnock, but 4,400 less for Walker.

Unlike erstwhile runoffs, much educated and higher income areas were little enthusiastic astir voting successful the runoff, according to a Post investigation of precinct-level results. In the 4th of precincts with the smallest stock of assemblage educated registered voters, turnout fell by 9.2 percent compared to November. In precincts with the highest stock of assemblage educated voters, turnout fell by 10.5 percent.

Similarly, areas with the lowest median household incomes saw an 8.4 percent drop-off successful voters, portion those with the highest median household income fell by 10.9 percent.

Turnout figures volition summation arsenic further ballots are counted connected Wednesday.

Turnout dropped 10 percent this runoff, akin to Georgia’s 2021 runoff predetermination for Senate erstwhile it fell 9 percent from astir 4.9 cardinal to astir 4.5 million, according to Edison Research. Still, the caller elections correspond precocious enthusiasm successful a runoff: In the state’s 2008 and 1992 Senate elections, turnout dropped by 43 percent betwixt the wide predetermination and the runoff.

Lenny Bronner, Dara Gold and Scott Clement contributed to this report.

Sources: Georgia Secretary of State, elector information from L2, Associated Press predetermination results.

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