How Was Russia Able to Launch Its Biggest Aerial Attack on Ukraine? - The New York Times

The 96-missile barrage fired crossed Ukraine connected Tuesday was Russia’s biggest aerial onslaught of the warfare truthful far. But it followed months of assertions by Western and Ukrainian officials that Moscow’s stockpile of missiles and different weapons was rapidly dwindling.

Whether the battle connected infrastructure targets was agelong planned, arsenic Ukrainian commanders accidental they believe, oregon served arsenic a deadly effect to Kyiv’s recapture of the metropolis of Kherson past week, the wide onslaught raises questions astir however overmuch Russia’s arsenal whitethorn beryllium depleted and whether Moscow volition endure by uncovering alternate sources of weapons.

The Ukrainian defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said past month that Russia had burned though astir 70 percent of its prewar cache of the kinds of missiles that were mostly utilized successful Tuesday’s attack: Iskander, Kalibr and air-launched cruise missiles. At the time, Mr. Reznikov said Russia had lone 609 of those missiles left, though nary of the figures could beryllium independently verified.

An intelligence report by the British Defense Ministry dated Oct. 16 said a large-scale attack connected Ukrainian civilian infrastructure six days earlier had astir apt degraded Russia’s long-range rocket stocks, “which is apt to constrain their quality to onslaught the measurement of targets they tendency successful future.”

Since spring, Pentagon officials person suggested that Moscow was low connected precision-guided missiles, having tally done its proviso “at a beauteous accelerated clip,” arsenic a nationalist information spokesman, John F. Kirby, said successful May.

How, then, did Russia negociate to motorboat what Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, described arsenic possibly “the widest-scale rocket onslaught since the opening of the war”?

Here are 4 imaginable scenarios.

Russia is turning to Iran and North Korea for weapons, U.S. officials say.

At the Pentagon connected Wednesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said Russia was struggling to replenish its rocket stockpile to support up with battlefield demands, “so they’re reaching retired to Iran, they’re reaching retired to North Korea.”

“I bash deliberation that those countries volition astir apt supply them immoderate capability,” Mr. Austin said.

The swarms of Iranian-made drones that are attacking Ukraine — astir notably, the long-range Shahed bid that tin transportation an 88-pound warhead and clang into targets successful “kamikaze” strikes — person been Russia’s newest limb successful the conflict.

This month, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Forces Command said that it was besides expected that Iran would nonstop ballistic missiles to Russia. The spokesman, Yurii Ihnat, said that it was chartless however galore missiles Tehran mightiness springiness Moscow, but helium added that the weapons apt to beryllium sent would beryllium “fairly recently” manufactured, with a scope of astir 300 kilometers to 700 kilometers.

The United States has accused North Korea of secretly shipping rockets and artillery shells to Russia, though Mr. Kirby said this period that it was unclear if the munitions had been delivered.

Both North Korea and Iran person denied supplying Russia with weapons since the commencement of the war.

Russia whitethorn beryllium gathering much missiles.

Last month, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia announced home efforts to ramp up accumulation of instrumentality and systems “associated with providing enactment for the peculiar subject operation” successful Ukraine.

Janes, a defence quality firm, said that Russia precise apt stockpiled microchips and different exertion indispensable to physique precision missiles earlier invading Ukraine successful February — perchance starting years ago, fixed Moscow’s deteriorating relations with the West aft its illegal annexation of Crimea successful 2014.

The Janes analysis, provided connected Thursday to The New York Times, noted that specified microelectronic components were besides utilized for civilian purposes and that Russia whitethorn person obtained them done 3rd parties, specified arsenic states oregon backstage entities that were consenting to hazard the punishment of U.S. sanctions if caught.

Russia astir apt began producing precocious numbers of Iskanders, Kalibrs, and cruise missiles earlier the invasion, the investigation said.

“They are apt being produced arsenic we speak, since the system is connected a adjacent warfare footing and galore plants associated with the Russian subject concern analyzable are moving successful 3 shifts and adjacent connected weekends,” the Janes investigation said.

Russia is utilizing aerial defence missiles to motorboat attacks, Ukraine says.

In a smaller follow-up onslaught connected Thursday, Russia fired astatine slightest 10 S-300 antiaircraft guided missiles against cities adjacent the beforehand line, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Built by Russia and exported crossed Asia and Eastern Europe — including to Iran and Syria, and to Crimea — the S-300 surface-to-air rocket was archetypal designed successful 1978 for extortion against incoming aerial assaults. More caller generations of the rocket tin deed aircraft, drones and ballistic missiles.

But Russia’s increasing reliance on the S-300 arsenic an onslaught limb against crushed targets successful Ukraine has been 1 awesome to subject officials and experts that it is moving retired of its cruise missiles oregon other, much accepted violative weapons.

Russia whitethorn person been holding immoderate weapons successful reserve for warfare against NATO.

Few, if any, Western officials person a wide relationship of the presumption of Russia’s arsenal oregon cognize precisely however galore missiles stay successful its stockpile, said Mark. F. Cancian, a erstwhile Marine and White House weapons strategist who is present astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies successful Washington.

But, helium said, Western militaries judge that Russia has agelong kept a reserve of missiles and different weapons connected clasp successful lawsuit it goes to warfare with NATO.

“They seemingly person a withhold for a notional NATO attack,” Mr. Cancian said connected Thursday, “which we would respect arsenic absurd, but they respect it arsenic a existent possibility.”

“So they’re holding backmost immoderate portion of their inventory for that,” helium said.

It is not known if Russia whitethorn person depended connected those reserves for Tuesday’s strikes.