Is it worth waiting for Kawhi Leonard?

Kawhi Leonard is inactive recovering from the torn ACL that caused him to miss the full 2021-22 season. He has lone played successful 5 of the Clippers' archetypal 18 games this season, averaging lone 22.4 MPG with 3 starts and 2 appearances disconnected the bench.

The stated extremity entering the play was for Leonard to run connected a minutes bounds of astir 20 MPG, past dilatory ramp up to mean minutes arsenic his wellness and upwind got up to speed. Unfortunately, helium started having soreness successful his genu aft crippled 2 and had to beryllium astir a month.

Now, he's back, and again successful the starting lineup playing successful the low-20s successful presumption of MPG arsenic helium re-starts the program to enactment into shape.

The question for phantasy hoops managers that person rostered and held onto Leonard done the archetypal period is this -- volition it beryllium worthy the wait? If you clasp connected until he's backmost to afloat speed, what should you expect from him?

Let's task forward, with a speedy reappraisal of the past.

Kawhi missed 73 games during the 2017-18 play aft helium tore his quadriceps tendon, analogous to him sitting past season. When Kawhi returned, these were his averages for the adjacent 3 seasons:

26.2 PPG (49.1 FG%, 87.4 FT%), 7.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 2.0 3PG

The per-game averages are strong. They would construe to 47.2 phantasy points per game, which would presently spot 14th successful the NBA this season, conscionable down Pascal Siakam (48.4 FP/G) and conscionable up of LeBron James (46.2 FP/G), Ja Morant (45.9 FP/G) and Devin Booker (45.3 FP/G).

Looking astatine those numbers, and those names, it's evident that a steadfast Leonard is simply a franchise subordinate successful some the NBA and phantasy basketball. In 1 league wherever I drafted Leonard, my person Kyle called Kawhi "a imaginable league winner" arsenic a third-round pick... and those numbers/names are why.

Everyone would clasp retired for that benignant of upside, right?

Then why, erstwhile precocious asked astir the phantasy draught prime I astir regret this season, did I accidental take that aforesaid third-round prime of Kawhi?

A mates of reasons. First, determination has been a outgo to not having Leonard available/himself for the archetypal period of the season. The War Room league wherever I roster him is simply a regular transaction H2H points league, and we've played 5 games truthful far. My team, which I stock with my co-manager Stephania, is 0-5... by acold the worst squad I've got crossed each my leagues.

But, let's look closer.

In Week 3, our squad mislaid a squeaker by 40 phantasy points (1,218 - 1,178) with Leonard not playing a game. In Week 5, our squad mislaid by a heart-breaking 15 phantasy points (1,151-1,136) with Leonard playing portion time.

There were different games wherever a steadfast Kawhi whitethorn person made america competitory capable to snag different triumph oregon two, but astatine the precise slightest an adjacent moderately-below-average Kawhi would've been bully for 2 further victories and person america close successful the premix of the league a period in. Instead, that squad is already successful situation mode.

So, yes, erstwhile I look astatine what my 1 Kawhi squad has been truthful far, and what it could person been, I regret passing connected players similar Donovan Mitchell successful that league... truthful far. But, the premise of this article, is, what tin we expect from Kawhi moving guardant erstwhile helium gets his legs afloat nether him? So, let's instrumentality to his per-game averages for the past 3 seasons, but adhd different cardinal line:

26.2 PPG (49.1 FG%, 87.4 FT%), 7.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 2.0 3PG

...and 19 missed games per play (out of 75.3 games per season, owed to COVID-19 docket changes)

See, adjacent erstwhile Leonard was arsenic steadfast arsenic helium could beryllium implicit the past 3 seasons, he's inactive missed astir precisely 1 retired of each 4 games. Most of that was owed to load management, arsenic helium planned to not play successful some halves of back-to-backs successful summation to taking scheduled load absorption days.

It seems exceedingly apt that, adjacent erstwhile he's afloat up to velocity this season, he'll proceed astatine that play-75%-of-games pace.

If you person Leonard connected your team, and you're successful a league with play roster absorption transactions, that translates to a purely 75% complaint for him. While 47.2 FP/G would beryllium 14th successful the NBA, 75% of 47.2 FP -- oregon 35.4 FP -- would necktie with Andrew Wiggins for 50th successful the NBA. Still an interaction guy, but not rather arsenic breathtaking arsenic waiting for a Morant/Booker-sized impact.

In regular transaction leagues, Leonard is much invaluable than that, due to the fact that you could successful mentation person different players connected your roster to substitute for him successful immoderate of the games helium misses. Not each of them... for example, if helium misses connected a sparse NBA day, you apt can't regenerate him that day.

But, if it's a engaged schedule, similar connected galore Mondays, Wednesdays oregon Fridays, you mightiness regenerate Kawhi's 47ish phantasy points with a subordinate susceptible of giving you 25 oregon 30 phantasy points. Still not ideal, but possibly person to 88% Kawhi alternatively of 75%... oregon astir 41.5 FP/G connected average.

This would enactment him astatine 25th successful the league, close determination with Fred VanVleet, conscionable down Bradley Beal and conscionable up of Domantas Sabonis. Those are inactive precise breathtaking names, and a large phantasy impact. But...remember, Kawhi's lack whitethorn person already outgo your squad aggregate wins successful a play wherever each triumph counts.

In those scenarios, is adjacent a VanVleet-sized interaction capable to get your squad backmost into an eventual playoffs race? Your mileage whitethorn vary.

Bottom line, if you drafted Kawhi Leonard connected your phantasy hoops squad and held onto him, you've paid immoderate superior equity already and are truly looking to the imaginable payoff of rostering 1 of the champion players successful the NBA.

Just support successful caput that adjacent though his per-game stats are much than elite, he's precise apt to miss 1 retired of each 4 games moving guardant adjacent assuming arsenic adjacent to afloat wellness arsenic possible. There's besides the hazard of re-injury to consider.

So, my proposal is to hold and anticipation that helium reaches full-Kawhi mode successful the adjacent future. If-and-when helium does, bask it and marque arsenic large a woody astir it with your chap league mates arsenic possible.

Only, don't benignant it similar you're trying to commercialized him. Instead, play it similar you're talking trash. If you triumph a adjacent matchup with a Kawhi large crippled oregon 2 putting your squad implicit the top, speech huffy junk to your hostile astir however overmuch of a genius you were to clasp onto him during his wounded recovery.

Do the aforesaid each clip helium drops a 40-point crippled oregon hits the crippled winning changeable that tops the SportsCenter Top 10. Keep Kawhi's sanction retired determination successful the astir affirmative vein possible. Then, commercialized him immediately, arsenic soon arsenic you're capable to softly negociate a woody worthy his 47.2 FP/G steadfast mean arsenic opposed to his 75% rate.

That's what I'd do... you know, if I weren't saying this publically wherever each 13 of my ESPN-employed War Room league mates could work it.