Is Joel Embiid better without James Harden? Let's look at the evidence

In statistics, we often observe that 1 lawsuit happens astatine the aforesaid clip arsenic different event. When that happens, it is called correlation.

What we're often trying to fig out, though, is whether 1 lawsuit caused the different event. That would beryllium called causation.

Just due to the fact that 2 things hap astatine the aforesaid time, it doesn't needfully mean that 1 caused the other. BUT, it might. And, it's typically easier to find 2 events that correlate, past trial with different investigation to spot if we judge determination to beryllium causation.

Such is the case, here.

First correlation:

• In six games playing adjacent to James Harden this season, Joel Embiid averaged 27.2 PPG (53.2 FG%, 78.8 FT%, 30.0 3P%), 9.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 BPG, 1.0 3PG, 0.5 SPG and 3.7 TO/G successful 34.5 MPG.

• In 4 games playing without Harden this season, Embiid is averaging 40.0 PPG (54.3 FG%, 86.4 FT%, 16.7 3P%), 11.0 RPG, 5.3 APG, 2.8 BPG, 0.8 3PG,, 0.8 SPG and 5.0 TO/G successful 36.3 MPG.

So, Embiid's phantasy hoops contributions person accrued successful volume, dramatically successful immoderate areas, successful the abbreviated play that he's played without Harden. But, is determination causation? Is Embiid producing much due to the fact that he's playing without Harden? Or, could this conscionable beryllium a tiny illustration size correlation, that a blistery streak from Embiid, that conscionable happened to hap with Harden retired of the lineup?

There are tenable philosophies to reason successful some directions. Harden tin beryllium a high-volume, high-usage player, truthful if you region that, past you'd expect determination to beryllium much shots and opportunities for teammates to capable the gap. On the different hand, Harden is simply a level wide who's liable for getting his teammates the shot successful positions to score, and you mightiness fishy that removing the champion team-offense creator could wounded teammates' scoring efficiency, and possibly measurement arsenic well.

Which is the lawsuit here? Let's play them some out.

Causation: Embiid amended without the Beard: After a disappointing postseason that had galore wondering if Harden's champion days were acold down him, Harden entered this play speaking astir being successful overmuch amended signifier and truthful having MVP-level aspirations. He got retired the gates successful a hurry, scoring 29 oregon much points successful 3 of the archetypal 4 games and dishing 9 oregon much assists successful the past 4 games helium played adjacent to Embiid. All told, successful those six games, Harden averaged 23.3 PPG (16.5 FGA, 6.8 FTA), 7.8 RPG, 9.8 APG and 2.3 TO/G. Those numbers would presently person Harden 21st successful the NBA successful scoring (just up of teammate Tyrese Maxey), 2nd successful assists/game and 34th successful rebounds/game. He would fertile 30th successful tract extremity attempts and 14th successful escaped propulsion attempts.

According to Second Spectrum, Harden touched the shot 837 times successful 9 games. That means that Harden was touching the shot more, per crippled (93.0 touches/game), than Luka Doncic (92.7 touches/game successful 13 games) oregon Nikola Jokic (91.2 touches/game successful 13 games), 2 MVP candidates who notoriously person their full offenses tally done them. Embiid presently averages 69.9 touches/game successful his 10 games.

So, not lone was Harden taking a precocious measurement of shots and having the full squad discourtesy tally done him, helium was besides crashing the boards heavy from the backcourt. Plus, if you watched the 76ers astatine each this season, you saw that Harden was dribbling the aerial retired of the shot connected galore possessions. While this whitethorn person been large for the 76ers arsenic a team, Harden's Real Plus Minus (RPM) people of 4.4 suggests helium had the 11th largest interaction successful the NBA frankincense acold connected the season, it could bash thing but wounded Embiid's volume.

Embiid isn't the accepted large antheral that requires a defender to make a bully look for him. He alternatively likes to face-up and make his ain looks disconnected the dribble. According to Second Spectrum, Embiid runs 14.7 isolations per 100 possessions, the fifth-highest people successful the NBA down Luka, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Pascal Siakam and...you guessed it, teammate Harden. If Harden is dominating the ball, Embiid can't spell to enactment arsenic often arsenic he'd like. The aforesaid is existent of assists, wherever if Harden is initiating the bulk of changeable looks past Embiid doesn't person the accidental to make galore assists of his own. And this is adjacent existent for rebounds, wherever a heavy-rebounding defender means determination conscionable aren't arsenic galore caroms for Embiid to collect.

Harden was playing overmuch amended this play earlier helium got injured, and it was large for the 76ers arsenic a team, but lousy for Embiid's phantasy hoops output.

Correlation: Small illustration size coincidence, conscionable arsenic bully w/ Harden: Embiid is scorching blistery close now, but it's not sustainable. He's not going to mean 40 PPG and 5.3 APG for the remainder of the season, nary substance who his teammates are. It conscionable truthful happens that Embiid caught occurrence to nutrient a historical play with 101 points and 14 assists successful 2 games against the Hawks and Jazz, and if we were to revisit his numbers successful a fewer weeks they'll person regressed to his existent level. What is that level?

Well, past play astatine property 27-28, typically highest years, Embiid averaged career-highs of 30.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG an 4.2 APG. That's for the season. But, bash you cognize what Embiid's numbers were past season, starting from erstwhile Harden made his 76ers debut connected February 25th? Embiid averaged 32.6 PPG, 12.8 RPG and 3.5 APG successful those 22 games. That's right, past season, Embiid's scoring and rebounding measurement really increased...by a sizeable amount...once helium started playing adjacent to Harden.

And while, yes, Harden started this play looking overmuch amended than helium finished last, helium truly wasn't immoderate much disruptive successful presumption of possessions utilized this play than last. Harden is taking 2.3 much tract extremity attempts/game this season, but he's taking 2.7 less escaped throws, generating 0.5 less assists and 0.5 less turnovers. Factor that each in, and Harden's 26.4 usage % this play is lone marginally higher than his 24.9 USG% aft helium joined the 76ers past season.

And, Harden's level generalship makes up for the ever-so-slightly elevated usage. Per Second Spectrum, Harden has passed with 610 of his 837 touches this season, and his passes person generated a sparkling 1.23 points per nonstop pass. That's 1 of the champion marks successful the league, commiserate with the numbers generated by the apical assistance producers successful the league successful Tyrese Haliburton (1.12 points per nonstop pass), Chris Paul (1.31 points per nonstop pass) and Trae Young (1.31 points per nonstop pass). So, yes, Harden touched the shot a lot. But the immense bulk of the time, those touches ended successful a pass, and erstwhile helium passed Harden was mounting his teammates up with dimes. In the agelong run, that could lone beryllium to the bully for Embiid's scoring.

Bottom line: After truthful fewer games, 1 can't marque a slam dunk lawsuit successful either absorption astir whether the correlation betwixt Harden's lack and Embiid's detonation is causative. I fishy that Harden's quality to gully attraction from opposing defenses and acceptable up his teammates with bully passes would yet assistance Embiid's scoring ratio but not capable to wholly flooded the lesser volume. That portion Embiid should enactment up large numbers either way, his numbers volition apt dip erstwhile Harden returns.

But, determination are different factors astatine play present arsenic well. The eventual intent of this workout was to find whether to counsel FBA managers with Embiid connected their teams to clasp onto the two-time MVP runner-up, oregon possibly to commercialized him portion his worth is astatine a comparative max. I'd reason that, erstwhile looking astatine the full situation, it could beryllium advisable to commercialized precocious connected Embiid. Embiid has missed astatine slightest 14 games successful each play successful his career, and successful the 4 seasons earlier past that fig was person to 20 absences per season. He's already missed 4 of 14 games this season.

So, it's already advisable to see trading Embiid portion he's connected a high, earlier he's forced to miss important time. Plus, you besides person to origin successful that Maxey has grown into a high-usage subordinate this play arsenic well. With Harden and Maxey combining for astir 35 shots, much than 14 assists and much than 10 boards from the backcourt, I bash deliberation Embiid's upside is capped erstwhile Harden returns.

I urge that phantasy hoops managers perfectly bask Embiid's Wilt-like agelong of video crippled numbers. But, I besides urge you speech those numbers up to your league-mates astatine each opportunity, to effort to woody Embiid for Wilt-like Avengers worth alternatively of holding connected and having to settee for a much human-like instrumentality erstwhile the Beard is back.