Key CFP questions: Who's No. 1? Where do Ohio State and Alabama land?

This penultimate ranking could arguably beryllium the astir compelling, revealing regular-season College Football Playoff apical 25.

Period.

If determination is 1 upset successful this weekend's league title games -- astir realistically if TCU loses to Kansas State successful the Big 12 title oregon USC loses to Utah successful the Pac-12 rubric crippled -- it would unfastened the doorway to controversy, allowing one-loss Ohio State and two-loss Alabama backmost into the conversation. The script successful which some TCU and USC suffer lends further credence to the possibility, which is wherefore however acold Ohio State falls is the biggest question for the committee. If the Buckeyes are astatine No. 5, they inactive person a accidental to decorativeness successful the apical 4 with immoderate help. If the committee drops them beneath Alabama, their presumption becomes acold much precarious.

Ohio State is already hanging by a thread aft it was beaten soundly astatine location by a Michigan squad playing without injured prima moving back, Blake Corum. Alabama, which has been an afterthought successful the playoff race, connected Tuesday could beryllium ranked up of some teams it mislaid to -- three-loss LSU and two-loss Tennessee.

Alabama and Ohio State's résumés are complete. So who the committee deems amended Tuesday nighttime would look to person an borderline connected Selection Day -- if there's an opening. A TCU nonaccomplishment wouldn't regularisation the Frogs out, but they would beryllium lumped successful with Ohio State and Alabama arsenic teams that didn't triumph their conference. A USC nonaccomplishment would beryllium harder for the committee to warrant due to the fact that the Trojans would person mislaid doubly to Utah, creating uncertainty wrong the country that they are "unequivocally" 1 of the 4 champion teams. A three-loss K-State isn't getting in. A three-loss Utah isn't getting in.

(Re)-enter Ohio State and Alabama.

According to ESPN's spot of grounds metric, Ohio State's résumé is importantly amended than Alabama's. The mean apical 25 squad would person a 20% accidental of going 11-1 oregon amended against the Buckeyes' docket and a 29% accidental of going 10-2 oregon amended against the Crimson Tide's schedule. The committee would besides see that the Buckeyes' nonaccomplishment was to the No. 3-ranked team.

Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren said his league should "without a doubt" person 2 teams successful the playoff. Alabama manager Nick Saban advocated for his team aft its Iron Bowl win, saying, "We've mislaid 2 games to top-10 opponents, some connected the past play of the crippled and some connected the road. We could person easy won some games but didn't."

Which is wherefore the Tide inactive needs help, arsenic does with Ohio State. In summation to determining who's successful the bubble this week, the committee could besides see making a alteration astatine the top. Here are 3 different things to ticker Tuesday nighttime (7 ET connected ESPN) erstwhile the radical reveals its 5th of six rankings:

Who's No. 1?

Both Michigan and Georgia could marque a lawsuit for the apical spot Tuesday night, and portion the bid could flip present oregon adjacent week, it yet volition beryllium important for seeding purposes. The No. 1 squad faces the No. 4 squad successful 1 semifinal and the enactment committee is cautious to debar putting the apical squad astatine a geographic disadvantage. Michigan owns the champion triumph successful the country, against the committee's No. 2 team. The committee does not effort to debar rematches successful the semifinals, truthful it's imaginable Michigan could upwind up astatine No. 1 connected Selection Day and Ohio State could beryllium No. 4.

The Wolverines outscored Ohio State 28-3 successful the 2nd fractional Saturday. They besides person a apical 25 triumph against No. 11 Penn State, and are No. 2 successful the state successful spot of record. Georgia, though, is adjacent down them astatine No. 5, with its champion wins against Tennessee, Oregon and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs person looked sluggish precocious successful the archetypal half, though, scoring conscionable 10 points against Georgia Tech and 9 the erstwhile week successful a 16-6 triumph astatine Kentucky. The committee has said successful caller weeks that Georgia separated itself from the remainder of the state arsenic its No. 1 team. Is that inactive the case?

Can USC leap TCU?

The easiest determination for the committee would beryllium to bump undefeated TCU up to No. 3 pursuing Ohio State's loss, but USC's back-to-back wins against ranked opponents UCLA and Notre Dame could springiness them a bigger boost. Including the Trojans' Sept. 24 triumph astatine Oregon State -- the squad that conscionable eliminated rival Oregon from the Pac-12 rubric crippled -- USC has 3 wins against teams presently ranked successful the CFP apical 25. No different schoolhouse has much than 2 wins against existent apical 25 opponents.

Which Group of 5 squad leads for a New Year's Six vessel bid?

The highest ranked league champion from a Group of 5 league is guaranteed a spot successful a New Year's Six bowl, and that apt volition beryllium decided astatine 4 p.m. ET connected Saturday erstwhile No. 19 Tulane hosts No. 22 UCF successful the American Athletic Conference title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 59% accidental of winning. No. 24 Cincinnati should autumn retired of the rankings this week pursuing its 27-24 nonaccomplishment to Tulane connected Friday. It's besides worthy keeping an oculus connected 10-2 UTSA, which is presently unranked by the committee, but volition look North Texas successful the Conference USA rubric crippled Friday. According to ESPN Analytics, UTSA has a 74% accidental of winning.

ESPN reporters' top-four picks

Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
David Hale: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. TCU 4. USC
Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. USC 4. TCU
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2 Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC
Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC