Larry Magid: Paradigm shifts of yesteryear, today and tomorrow - The Mercury News

It doesn’t hap often, but each erstwhile successful a portion there’s a large exertion paradigm displacement with caller products oregon services that vastly alteration the scenery oregon empower america to bash things we couldn’t bash before. These paradigm shifts tin besides alteration however the tech affects our lives for amended and worse and sometimes elicits some affirmative and antagonistic attraction from the public, the media and argumentation makers.

As idiosyncratic who’s been pursuing exertion developments since the 1970’s I’ve seen them all, but whether thing is genuinely a paradigm displacement isn’t ever evident until years later.

The Mac and Windows

I’ll commencement the timepiece successful the precocious 1970s erstwhile idiosyncratic computers were introduced. At first, precise fewer radical took them seriously, but by the clip IBM entered the marketplace successful 1981, they were starting to scope captious mass. Offices were starting to usage them for connection processing, database absorption and different important tasks. Some families bought PCs for things similar keeping way of finances oregon for their kids to bash homework. At that constituent computers displayed mostly substance connected the screen, but successful 1984, Apple introduced the Macintosh, which represented the opening of a paradigm shift. The Mac was not lone casual to use, but its “What you spot is what you get,”  oregon WYSIWYG interface, made it a batch easier to make visually appealing documents with integrated substance and graphics. A twelvemonth later, Microsoft introduced Windows, which further reinforced that paradigm shift, though it took respective years earlier PCs with WYSIWYG interface became mainstream.

Other than that, determination hasn’t been overmuch of a large paradigm displacement successful PCs unless you number laptops which are fundamentally conscionable portable PCs.

AOL and broadband

Although PCs were capable to link to online services similar Compuserve arsenic acold backmost arsenic the precocious 70s, they were mostly niche products until the mid-90s erstwhile AOL started sending floppy disks to practically everyone successful America, prompting millions of radical to spell online. That was cemented successful 1994 with the instauration of Netscape, the archetypal fashionable web browser.

The adjacent paradigm displacement happened mostly successful the aboriginal 2000’s erstwhile broadband began to instrumentality off. Before broadband, radical “went online” by connecting their PC to a modem and dialing in. Broadband was not lone overmuch faster, but it was ever connected, making the net much integrated into our lives.

Cell phones, Blackberry and iPhone

Car phones had been astir for decades but were uncommon and precise costly to ain and usage until the compartment telephone networks began to look successful the aboriginal ’80s. But it was handheld compartment phones aboriginal successful that decennary that made cellular into a paradigm displacement successful the mode galore radical communicated. But, until the Blackberry came retired successful 1999, compartment phones were mostly conscionable wireless portable telephones.

Blackberry and iPhone

The Blackberry was a paradigm displacement due to the fact that it moved compartment phones into the realm of handheld PCs with the quality to nonstop and person email arsenic good arsenic signifier and stock information. But the large paradigm displacement came successful 2007 erstwhile Apple introduced the iPhone. And adjacent that wasn’t a large paradigm displacement until 2008 erstwhile Apple introduced the app store and the eco-system of third-party apps. The app-enabled iPhone, followed soon by Google’s acquisition of Android and its app store, had a immense interaction connected galore aspects of our lives, putting tremendous computing powerfulness into the thenar of our hands. It was a large paradigm shift. In immoderate ways, smartphones person go portable terminals, remotely connected to precise almighty computers and networks.

Today’s AI and extended reality

Fast forwarding to today, dependable enabled astute devices, similar the Amazon Echo and Google Home, astir apt suffice arsenic paradigm shifts on with cars that are connected the verge of being capable to thrust themselves, but it’s a spot excessively aboriginal to cognize for sure.

There are 2 large paradigm shifts that could beryllium connected the horizon. We don’t yet cognize if they’re paradigm shifts, but  some extended reality, including virtual (VR) and augmented world headsets and glasses, and artificial quality (AI) mightiness person a immense impact.

I’m precise bullish connected AI, particularly aft experimenting with ChatGPT, which is capable to constitute essays, poems and semi-factual articles based connected queries from users. I accidental semi-factual, due to the fact that portion the earthy connection motor gets a batch things right, it besides makes mistakes. But based connected the aboriginal prototype that I’ve played with, it’s highly promising and is lone going to get better. It is susceptible of disrupting things, including my cherished profession. I’m not disquieted astir being enactment retired of enactment successful the adjacent fewer years, but it is intelligibly susceptible of penning immoderate types of fact-based articles. Right now, its applications are limited, but it could person a large interaction connected each aspects of cognition seeking, reporting and penning arsenic it gets better, faster and much reliable. And that volition happen, particularly present that Microsoft and Google are among the galore companies putting important resources into this benignant of technology

I’m besides bullish connected extended world but not so-much connected the bulky virtual world headsets that beryllium today. I’m looking guardant to affordable and almighty astute glasses that volition beryllium similar smartphones that you wear. There are a fewer prototypes retired determination now, but the devices are inactive beauteous primitive. But the time volition travel erstwhile accusation isn’t conscionable astatine our fingertips but, literally, successful our look arsenic we spell astir our lives.

Larry Magid is simply a tech writer and net information activist.