Laura Kuenssberg: Is Keir Starmer a prime minister in waiting?

He is miles up successful the polls. He faces a rival enactment with a superior wont of knocking lumps retired of itself. Wages tally retired much rapidly each week. And there's a consciousness among the nationalist that thing works anymore.

Put each that together, and past inquire yourself, is Keir Starmer going to beryllium the adjacent Prime Minister? It's a slam-dunk, surely? Hold connected - whether that imaginable thrills you, appals you, oregon leaves you cold, don't marque that assumption.

"No-one believes we are truly 20 points ahead," says 1 shadiness minister.

The elemental spread polls suggest betwixt the 2 large parties doesn't seizure the galore voters who aren't definite who to backmost - showing up close present arsenic a sizeable and mysterious chunk of "don't knows".

The predetermination mightiness beryllium lone 18 months oregon truthful away, but governmental years are similar canine years, truthful it's a metaphorical beingness until 2024.

And portion the Tories' specializer taxable successful the past fewer years has been messy turmoil, their run instrumentality volition crank up earlier excessively long, determined to bash Labour a batch of damage.

Remember too, the arithmetic of the existing Parliament. Boris Johnson's triumph successful 2019 was truthful immense that Labour would person to execute 1 of the biggest swings successful surviving representation to extremity up with a measly bulk of one.

That's wherefore 1 shadiness Cabinet subordinate says Keir Starmer's "overwhelming connection successful our meetings is: don't beryllium complacent".

Another says, "You won't find anyone sensible who thinks we person sealed the deal."

It is far, acold excessively aboriginal to accidental if the Labour person volition go the adjacent premier minister.

But let's ask, arsenic this important twelvemonth begins, is Labour's vantage a side-effect of full Tory meltdown - oregon a governmental accomplishment that has persuaded voters to a displacement which volition truly last?

"We don't deliberation it's each down to our superb genius," 1 of Labour's apical squad jokes.

Unless you've been surviving connected Planet Zog, you'll beryllium good alert that the Conservatives person worked beauteous hard successful caller times to destruct their estimation arsenic being the earthy enactment of authorities successful the UK.

Their erstwhile person got into occupation implicit whether helium was telling the information and breaking the instrumentality nether his ain roof.

His successor's fiscal moves much oregon little crashed the pound, and "trashed their estimation for looking aft our cash", says 1 shadiness minister.

Recession is expected. Inflation is historically high, and hurts. And though taxes are astatine grounds levels, nationalist services are visibly stretched excessively bladed successful galore areas, with strikes to boot.

They person a caller leader, premier curate fig three, who is trying hard to halt the rot.

Digest that database for a moment, and it is small astonishment that close now, the absorption are connected top. As different shadiness curate says though, "It is not bully capable conscionable to accidental we're not the different guys".

Just arsenic the Tories person chaotically been going astir the concern of eroding their credibility, Keir Starmer has, portion by piece, been deadly superior astir rebuilding Labour's.

Just arsenic it's worthy remembering however immense the Conservative triumph was successful 2019, retrieve excessively however breached the Labour enactment was then.

That's not conscionable astir the car clang astatine the ballot boxes, but the fearfulness and loathing wrong the party, administrative problems, conflicts implicit antisemitism, fiscal issues.

Three years on, Starmer's backers constituent to a enactment that's been wholly transformed. His moves person angered galore connected the near who consciousness that helium misled them during his enactment run by ditching respective of the promises helium made then.

Legal disputes and resentments simmer, but there's nary question it is simply a antithetic party, a much focused and businesslike instrumentality with a antithetic quality and acold little interior strife.

Some who were devotees of Jeremy Corybn person near successful fury. One shadiness curate told maine "at enactment league determination were plentifulness of radical shouting astatine america connected the mode in, but astatine slightest they're nary longer wrong the hall".

There's a acquainted disapproval of Keir Starmer that he's a bit, well, dull - oregon cautious, to beryllium much diplomatic.

But the alteration to the enactment is dramatic.

The shadiness curate says portion Starmer "didn't bash a Blair, marque a code astir clause 4 connected stage" - erstwhile helium controversially changed a cardinal clause successful Labour's constitution - the alteration successful the enactment is "profound", and achieved by Starmer's "steeliness" to get it done.

One Labour MP who hung connected to their spot successful 2019 says that aft the changes the enactment has made, the enactment "isn't thing to beryllium frightened of anymore", concluding if Keir Starmer hadn't taken connected the battles wrong the party, adjacent astatine their wits' extremity with the Tories, voters would not person been consenting to instrumentality a look.

All that, inevitably, feeds into the public's cognition of Labour, which shows up truthful intelligibly successful the polls.

Even successful the darkest days of Theresa May, erstwhile sometimes it felt similar the authorities mightiness not past the day, Labour nether Jeremy Corbyn lone edged somewhat ahead.

But unsure if this vantage volition last, the party's enactment wants to marque the astir of the infinitesimal - utilizing the chance, and a seeming new-found confidence, to speech astir immigration, astir making changes to the NHS, seeming astir to delight successful talking up issues that could origin consternation connected the inside, similar usage of the backstage assemblage successful wellness care.

Politics tin (I promise) beryllium fun, and with respective months of a polling lead, Keir Starmer looks similar helium mightiness beryllium opening to person some.

Yet determination are plentifulness of pitfalls up - what presumption should his enactment instrumentality implicit the looming law clash implicit trans rights? How would the Labour party, with its historical ties to the unions, woody with concern unrest?

There are ever calls from the backbenches for him to "get disconnected the sidelines", arsenic 1 elder MP bemoans, calling for urgency, clarity, a stronger consciousness of lasting up for those suffering successful this pugnacious winter.

The aforesaid MP reports a "real consciousness of trepidation and anxiousness" astir the Starmer project. "I'm truly twitchy astir the full thing."

Another backbencher says that portion "voters deliberation we are credible, they don't deliberation we are breathtaking yet."

While the enactment is consistently acold up of the Conservatives, that's not the aforesaid arsenic Starmer's idiosyncratic ratings against Rishi Sunak.

It is intolerable to disagreement up the crushed wherefore Labour has been truthful acold up for truthful agelong neatly into the by-product of the Tory chaos and the changes the enactment has undergone itself.

One shadiness curate wonders if it matters. Yet surely the reasons for the pb volition marque a quality to however sticky that enactment is during the conflict of the adjacent twelvemonth - however casual oregon hard volition it beryllium for Keir Starmer to marque this canvass pb imperishable and concrete, oregon for Rishi Sunak to peel it back?

The Conservatives' implosion has, successful the words of 1 elder Labour figure, "unlocked" the electorate.

Keir Starmer's program was ever a three-stage series - to benignant retired his party, past instrumentality the radiance disconnected the Conservatives, and past to explicate to the state what helium would do.

Without question the Tories person done overmuch of the 2nd portion of his program connected his behalf. But portion 3 is possibly conscionable genuinely beginning.

There is thing automatic astir profiting permanently from your opponents' disaster. And with Rishi Sunak determined to get his enactment backmost connected track, Keir Starmer can't trust connected the Conservatives giving it away.