Laura Kuenssberg: What could go right and wrong for parties in England's local elections?

With the elections for thousands of councillors successful England connected Thursday MPs, councillors and their hardy activists person been knocking connected voters' doors implicit the past fewer weeks.

Forget astir the authorities for a 2nd - I've heard immoderate beauteous hair-raising stories astir what tin spell incorrect successful that encounter. And the astir communal mode successful which the chat connected the doorstep goes awry?

"It's bare people," says 1 MP. "There's an atrocious batch of naked", says a long-time governmental activist. A erstwhile furniture curate remarks successful a quintessentially British mode that the voter's authorities of undress ever goes unmentioned, "even erstwhile they are doing their champion to instrumentality it to the limits of parental guidance".

Another MP told maine helium was truthful flummoxed erstwhile a pistillate successful her 50s opened the doorway leaving small to the imaginativeness that helium blurted out, "Is your mum in?", portion his chap campaigner ran disconnected screaming.

One of their colleagues said they had to screen the eyes of their seven-year-old daughter, who was helping with door-knocking, due to the fact that a antheral "opened the doorway stark bare with his dangly bits out". Another recalls, erstwhile walking up a thrust 1 evening, "a afloat bare antheral emerged from the plot shed and calmly said hello. I conscionable ran off!"

Canine misadventure seems common. An unimpressed elector successful Leicester acceptable their 2 Alsatians connected 1 MP.

In different encounter, an activistic got their manus stuck done a sprung letterbox (letterbox plan is simply a fashionable taxable for experienced doorknockers, I person discovered), past the nonmigratory canine spot and hung connected to the trapped hand.

And determination has been romanticist catastrophe too. One MP discovered a colleague's woman successful the location of different antheral erstwhile they knocked connected the doorway - "We had to interruption it to him - rather awkward" they said - quite!

Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, told maine this week helium slipped implicit successful the driving rainfall portion retired canvassing successful Lancashire, past went flying into someone's beforehand door. The elector opened up and proceeded to inspect the door, not Mr Hands, for damage, remarking, "We person lone conscionable had it replaced."

Let's deliberation for a infinitesimal oregon 2 though astir what other could spell close oregon incorrect for our governmental parties adjacent week, notwithstanding Alsatians oregon dangly bits.

Number-cruncher extraordinaire Sir John Curtice has written a primer connected the polling here - including the precise important reminder that the past clip this acceptable of seats were up for grabs successful 2019, some the Conservatives and the Labour Party were successful dire straits.

And enactment too, section elections are hugely influenced by, daze horror, section factors and debased turnout. But the millions of decisions voters marque adjacent Thursday substance to the large governmental picture.

What could spell incorrect for Rishi Sunak? Losing 1,000 seats, which Mr Hands himself has suggested is simply a possibility, would beryllium dreadful.

One of his rivals says that is simply a "preposterous" suggestion. The Tories did truthful severely successful these seats successful 2019 determination whitethorn not beryllium overmuch further to fall.

But the thought (you got it), of highlighting warnings similar that is, if they suffer acold less than that number, basal by for Conservative politicians successful studios connected Thursday and Friday saying, "Ah ha, look it was truthful overmuch amended than everyone expected."

One erstwhile furniture curate says without uncertainty "the wide communicative volition beryllium hundreds of Tory losses". But what matters beyond the elemental numbers are wherever the losses travel - 1 MP who has been campaigning says "we'll suffer a load of seats successful the Tory shires due to the fact that they person ne'er enactment a leaflet out".

Watch cautiously however sticky oregon slippy Conservative enactment is successful areas that turned bluish for the archetypal clip successful 2019. As the curate says it'll apt again "be a communicative of 2 Britains"- by their assessment, however the representation was carved up implicit Brexit volition inactive beryllium a guide.

What could spell close for the Conservatives? A overmuch narrower Labour pb based connected existent votes formed than that nationalist polls suggest.

I'll accidental this precise loudly again, the section elections are not the wide election. But our elephantine predetermination calculators bash travel up with an estimation of the nationalist stock of the ballot if the full state had gone to the polls.

Conservative strategists person said for galore months that Labour's enactment successful the nationalist sentiment polls is soft. A overmuch narrower spread successful the alleged projected stock would suggest that is true.

Whatever happens connected Thursday, 1 happening has already gone close for Rishi Sunak. When helium took over, determination were mutterings that helium had six months to show, earlier the elections, helium could govern, oregon else.

Fast guardant to now, however. Unless thing unexpectedly atrocious happens, it does not look astatine each that Mr Sunak's occupation mightiness beryllium connected the line. He has not abruptly reversed the fortunes of the enactment but helium has enactment the brakes connected the decline.

What could spell close for Labour? The aforesaid experts that suggest the Conservatives could suffer much than 1,000 suggest Labour could instrumentality astir 700 assembly seats.

Labour MPs scoff astatine that number, however. One says adjacent "500 would transcend each our expectations - there'd beryllium fireworks astatine Labour HQ - adjacent Keir would fto himself popular a vessel of champagne".

Remember that aged crippled of managing expectations. But unit is connected the enactment to amusement what 1 shadiness curate describes arsenic "significant and sizeable gains". Anything little than a fewer 100 much seats would look worrying, a nighttime that had gone wrong.

What crops up regularly talking to Labour sources, however, is wherever the gains come, not however many.

The enactment has deliberately enactment clip and effort into assembly battles that overlay the benignant of spot they request to triumph astatine the wide election. One shadiness curate said: "We volition justice it by the map, not the number."

The unit is connected to amusement they tin instrumentality seats successful precise antithetic places - challenging successful affluent parts of the south, arsenic good arsenic trying to recapture immoderate of their aged territory successful the north, wherever voters turned to the Conservatives nether Boris Johnson.

There is an accidental for Keir Starmer to construe months of a polling pb into thing real. But his backers privation to amusement enactment is stacking up credibly close crossed England to enactment the enactment good connected way to No 10. It's besides a accidental for them to decipher whether caller campaigning methods - "hardening our activists," 1 MP said, and trying retired much assertive uses of societal media - worked.

Councils are besides wherever you find opportunities for the smaller parties. The Lib Dems are sniffing around, whether it's Surrey oregon Stockport, trying to physique backmost their base.

What could spell close for them? Reaching possibly 200 gains would beryllium "pretty decent", according to Lib Dem insiders and similar each the parties, they are identifying areas wherever they anticipation they tin beryllium competitory successful the wide election.

The enactment hopes to nett from a operation of what they study from the doorsteps arsenic "massive anti-Tory sentiment" and a deficiency of enthusiasm for Labour, contempt its wide nationalist leads successful the polls.

Council elections are besides a large infinitesimal for the Green Party, which has hopes of winning a bulk connected a assembly for the archetypal clip successful Mid Suffolk, and perchance adding astir 100 seats overall.

A meaningful wide predetermination breakthrough has remained retired of scope for the enactment for truthful long, truthful continuing to turn its basal successful section councils is captious for it. There's besides the chartless quantity of the Reform Party lasting candidates. Built retired of the remains of the Brexit Party, it's hard to cognize what interaction it volition have.

These are elections that are driven by what's happening successful your street, your neighbourhood, your municipality oregon city. They are affected hugely by section events and are not happening successful each portion of the country.

But they bash substance to the science of our nationalist authorities - the biggest existent trial truthful acold of Rishi Sunak arsenic premier minister, and the past large ballot earlier the parties volition beryllium backmost knocking doors successful a wide election.

Conversations connected the doorstep - aggravated pets oregon bare residents notwithstanding - volition marque a immense quality to what goes close oregon wrong.

There is tonnes of accusation astir the elections here - and don't forget, for the archetypal clip you request photographic ID to formed your vote.