By Paul Adams
International affairs correspondent
When the Russians drove into Kherson successful March, virtually unopposed, they cannot person imagined they would beryllium getting acceptable to permission a specified 8 months later.
But by the clip Moscow orchestrated its overmuch delayed "referendum" successful aboriginal September, paving the mode for Kherson and 3 different regions of Ukraine to go portion of Russia, the tide was already turning,
From precocious July onwards, Ukraine's subject began the assiduous, pinpoint concern of cutting Russian forces connected the "right" (western) slope of the Dnipro River disconnected from their proviso lines to the southbound and the east.
As galore arsenic 20,000 Russian troops occupying Kherson and the flat, cultivation onshore to the north, were progressively isolated.
The circumstances surrounding the detonation stay unclear. Russia accused Ukraine's quality services of america feeing a motortruck bomb.
But the effect was contiguous - Russia's astir nonstop proviso way to Kherson was virtually severed.
By precocious October, Ukrainians loyal to Kyiv who remained successful the metropolis felt alteration was coming.
"Freedom is successful the air," 1 Ukrainian messaged maine connected 23 October, asking to beryllium identified lone arsenic James.
But determination was a mounting consciousness of dread too. If Russian forces were compelled to withdraw, what would they bash arsenic they left?
Photos I received a fewer days aboriginal showed shops boarded up. Kherson was starting to look similar a metropolis anticipating a hurricane.
"We've been done each rounds of fearfulness already," James told me. "So fto the tsunami come."
By the extremity of October, the sounds of shelling were getting person and the streets were progressively deserted.
With Russian-appointed officials starting to evacuate civilians, the city's liberation seemed to beryllium getting closer.
"People started speaking Ukrainian," James messaged me. "They were acrophobic to talk to each different before."
And, successful different motion of impending change, the worth of the rouble, which the Russian authorities had tried to enforce connected Kherson, started to tumble.
"We went to a beverage store and asked if they judge roubles," James told maine connected 30 October. "What they said was: 'Roubles? Only connected the near bank.'"
With the net starting to fail, section technicians were engaged installing decoders to alteration residents to ticker Ukrainian TV from adjacent Mykolaiv.
"They tin person an analogue TV signal, a connection from the escaped world," James said. "This is tremendously symbolic."
One of the astir symbolic - and possibly telling - moments came erstwhile a Russian squad arrived astatine the city's 18th Century Cathedral of St Catherine to region the bones of Prince Grigory Potemkin, the antheral liable for colonising confederate Ukraine connected behalf of his lover, Catherine the Great.
Days later, Russian trucks pulled up extracurricular the city's Regional Art Museum. Soldiers started to region pictures, repeating a signifier seen successful different Russian-occupied towns, notably Mariupol.
Other looting was going connected too, with backstage cars and tractors being towed distant and shops emptied.
Down connected the stream bank, boats were requisitioned and, successful immoderate cases destroyed. Videos circulating connected societal media adjacent purported to amusement animals from Kherson's zoo being removed to Crimea.
On the near slope of the Dnipro, outer imagery emerged, showing lines of precocious dug Russian defences stretching for 100 miles on the Dnipro, from supra the dam astatine Nova Kakhovka each the mode to the Black Sea.
But amid speech of a Russian trap, Ukrainian officials person remained cautious, a sentiment echoed successful the metropolis itself.
"It's each announcements for now," James said connected Wednesday.
Rumours are rife: that Russia is readying to stroke up the Nova Kakhovka dam; that Russian troops person donned civilian covering and are hiding retired successful backstage homes; oregon that Russian guns volition simply effort to level the metropolis from crossed the Dnipro, aft troops yet leave.
Whatever happens, this feels similar a captious moment. A metropolis seen arsenic a jewel successful the crown of Russia's concern whitethorn beryllium astir to alteration hands.
Given each Moscow's caller setbacks, a retreat crossed the stream seems to marque a large woody of subject sense. Politically, though, it's different catastrophic infinitesimal for Vladimir Putin.
The imagination of capturing the Black Sea larboard of Odesa volition recede adjacent further, on with immoderate thought of creating a onshore span each the mode from Russia to its allies successful Moldova's breakaway portion of Transnistria.
The battered metropolis of Mykolaiv volition astatine past bask immoderate relief.
Most worryingly for the Kremlin, Russian-occupied Crimea volition commencement to consciousness much vulnerable.
Bit by bit, Moscow's maximalist ambitions successful Ukraine person been thwarted. First astatine Kyiv, past successful the east, and present successful the south.
As the year's extremity approaches, Russian troops inactive inhabit immense swathes of the country. But aft shattering losses successful Russian men and materiel, this is not wherever Vladimir Putin thought helium would beryllium by the extremity of 2022.