London Playbook: Your fantasy football guide for Broncos vs. Jaguars

Welcome to a peculiar escaped sampling of the Fantasy Football Playbook, with sum of the London crippled betwixt the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars, airing exclusively Sunday connected ESPN+ astatine 9:30 a.m. ET.

The Playbook is your usher to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring people projections, over/unders, triumph probabilities and, of course, easy digestible phantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This usher should assistance you with each sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

We've besides included immoderate highlights from 1 of Mike Clay's standout play pieces, usually disposable exclusively with an ESPN+ subscription. Every week of the NFL season, Clay delivers his Shadow Report, analyzing the cardinal matchups betwixt wide receivers and cornerbacks to assistance you get a limb up connected the phantasy competition.

Clay besides contributes to our adept Chalk squad of phantasy and betting expert team, with an oculus towards offering up their opinions connected which props and team-based wagers are the astir advantageous to the bettor. We've asked him to service up immoderate of his favourite subordinate props for Sunday's ESPN+ London crippled below. You tin cheque retired the remainder of our betting contented for much Broncos vs. Jaguars picks and betting tips.

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 39.5)

Fantasy outlook

• Russell Wilson (hamstring) missed Week 7, and though he's expected backmost this week, helium won't beryllium a beardown phantasy starter successful London. The struggling backmost has managed lone 1 play decorativeness amended than 14th this season. Only 1 backmost has scored much than 11.5 phantasy points against Denver this play and that was Geno Smith (17.2), mode backmost successful Week 1. In fact, each azygous opposing QB and WR portion has scored beneath its play mean erstwhile facing Denver.

• Trevor Lawrence has 4 top-12 phantasy outings this season, but helium belongs connected benches successful this matchup.

• Travis Etienne Jr. (career-high 18.9 phantasy points past week and 100-plus scrimmage yards successful 3 consecutive games) is officially a play lineup fastener aft the Jaguars traded James Robinson to the Jets.

• With Mike Boone present connected IR, Melvin Gordon III (11 carries, 4 targets connected 39 snaps successful Week 7) and Latavius Murray (eight carries, 3 targets connected 28 snaps) fig to stock astir each of the backfield enactment this week. This is simply a bully matchup (the Jaguars person allowed 130-plus RB yards successful 4 consecutive games), but the shared workload successful a low-scoring discourtesy limits the duo to flex territory. Gordon is the preferred phantasy enactment of the two.

• Christian Kirk rebounded with a 101-yard effort successful Week 7, and he's handling a beardown 23% people share. Lawrence's apical people remains successful the WR3 mix, adjacent against a Denver defence that has allowed the second-fewest WR yards and phantasy points, arsenic good arsenic the lowest WR yards per people (5.8) and lone 1 receiving score. Zay Jones has seen eight-plus targets successful 4 of his six games, but he's champion near connected benches successful what volition beryllium 1 of his toughest matchups of the play (and the aforesaid goes for Marvin Jones Jr.).

• Jerry Jeudy turned a season-high 11 targets into 96 yards past week, which helped him to his 3rd top-20 phantasy outing. Jeudy is simply a coagulated WR3.

• Greg Dulcich has played connected 65% of snaps since making his NFL debut successful Week 6. He posted a 6-51-0 receiving enactment connected 9 targets past week and appears to beryllium locked successful arsenic the team's No. 3 pass-catcher. Dulcich is simply a fringe TE1.

• Evan Engram has seen six-plus targets successful 3 consecutive games, having cleared 65 yards successful 2 of those outings. On the different hand, he's yet to find the extremity portion oregon scope 13.0 phantasy points successful immoderate game. Engram is simply a midrange TE2.

Shadow report

Jaguars WRs Marvin Jones Jr., Christian Kirk and Zay Jones vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain II, K'Waun Williams and Damarri Mathis

The Broncos person allowed the second-fewest WR phantasy points (and the fewest implicit expected) this season. They've been fantabulous against some the perimeter (sixth-fewest points allowed) and slot (second-fewest allowed). Jones Jr. (89% perimeter) and Jones (62%) bash astir of their enactment extracurricular and volition spot a ton of Surtain and Mathis successful this game. Both tin beryllium downgraded. Surtain has shadowed successful 4 games this season, but each of that was connected the perimeter, truthful Kirk (75% slot) volition spot him connected nary much than a fistful of plays. As noted, though, Denver has besides been bully against the slot, truthful expectations for Kirk should beryllium downgraded a spot against Williams.

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell (Shadow)/Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Jaguars CB Darious Williams (Slot)/Broncos WR KJ Hamler vs. Jaguars CB Tre Herndon

Jacksonville's apical CB Shaquill Griffin was placed connected IR, which is simply a deed to a defence that has allowed the 12th-most phantasy points to perimeter receivers this season. With Griffin out, we could spot 2021 second-round prime Campbell shadiness Sutton successful this game. Campbell, who has played well, has shadowed erstwhile this season, and it was against Mike Williams successful a crippled Griffin besides missed backmost successful Week 3. It worked retired nicely for the Jaguars, with Williams catching conscionable 1 of his six targets (albeit for a 15-yard touchdown). Campbell was successful sum connected Williams connected 27 of his 37 perimeter routes. Sutton lines up connected the bound 83% of the time, truthful if Campbell shadows, these 2 volition beryllium matched up connected a bulk of plays this week. That would besides acceptable up Hamler with a bully matchup against Griffin-replacement Herndon connected the different broadside of the field. Jeudy has a neutral matchup successful the slot against Williams.

Player props

Trevor Lawrence UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-194): Lawrence checks successful with a 1.0 passing-TD projection for this game. The second-year backmost has thrown 9 touchdowns this season, but helium has lone 1 implicit his past 3 games combined. This week, Lawrence volition look disconnected with a Denver defence that has allowed a league-low 3 passing scores successful 7 games. Two of those came from Geno Smith mode backmost successful Week 1, which means Denver has allowed conscionable 1 passing touchdown during its past six games (and nary successful 4 consecutive matchups against the likes of Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Justin Herbert and Zach Wilson). The vig is ugly, but Lawrence is an utmost agelong changeable to propulsion 2 passing scores.

Jerry Jeudy OVER 46.5 receiving yards (-117) and Courtland Sutton OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-151): Denver is struggling to people touchdowns, but apical receivers Jeudy and Sutton person some racked up plentifulness of yardage, truthful these lines consciousness low. Sutton checks successful with a projection of 67 yards, and Jeudy is conscionable down him astatine 66 yards. Jeudy has reached 47 yards successful 5 of his six afloat games this season, with the objection being against a pugnacious 49ers defence successful Week 3. He enjoyed a season-high 11 targets successful Week 7. Sutton is averaging a steadfast 8.3 targets per game, and though he's fallen good beneath 53 yards successful 2 consecutive games, helium averaged 83.4 yards and cleared this people 4 times during his archetypal 5 games with Russell Wilson nether center. Even if helium draws Tyson Campbell shadiness sum (as discussed earlier), this enactment feels debased for Sutton.

Zay Jones UNDER 42.5 receiving yards (-125): This whitethorn consciousness similar a debased prop for a subordinate averaging 7.8 targets per game, but Jones' Week 8 projection comes successful a hairsbreadth beneath this enactment astatine 40.4 yards. In fact, he's fallen abbreviated of 43 yards successful 3 retired of six games, including each 1 of his past 3 outings. Denver has allowed 113.1 WR receiving yards per crippled this season, which is 2nd lowest successful the league. The Broncos are besides allowing 9.4 yards per reception (lowest) and 5.8 yards per people (lowest) to the position. Jones figures to spot a decent chunk of Surtain connected Sunday and is simply a bully stake for a down game.

Andre Cisco OVER 3.5 combined tackles (-166), Devin Lloyd OVER 6.5 combined tackles (-163) and Foyesade Oluokun OVER 8.5 combined tackles (+106): It whitethorn beryllium pugnacious for each 3 of these Jaguars defenders to deed the implicit connected their tackle props, but it's hard to ignorance the grounds for each of them. The vig isn't appealing connected 2 of these, but my projections are good supra the lines connected each three, truthful I'll gladly enactment a fewer bucks down. I person Cisco projected for 5.5 tackles, Lloyd for 8.7 and Oluokun for 9.7. Cisco, the team's starting escaped safety, has played connected 99% of antiaircraft snaps and is averaging 5.3 tackles per game. He has reached 4 tackles successful 5 retired of 7 games, including eight-plus successful 2 consecutive outings. Lloyd (98% drawback share) and Oluokun (100%) are Jacksonville's every-down off-ball linebackers. Lloyd is averaging 9.0 tackles per crippled and has deed astatine slightest 7 successful six retired of 7 games, including 5 straight. Oluokun is averaging 10.0 tackles per crippled and has reached 9 successful 4 retired of 7 games, including 3 of his past four.