MLS Cup playoffs conference semis preview: Who's primed for an upset?

1 year ago 59

The opening circular of the 2022 MLS Cup playoffs lacked immoderate of the play we've travel to expect from the postseason; aft all, determination was lone 1 upset. Nevertheless, we were inactive treated to 2 punishment shootouts, immoderate raucous crowds successful Austin and Montreal and a array acceptable for an appetizing last four.

So, with the league semifinals kicking disconnected connected Thursday, ESPN's Jeff Carlisle, Kyle Bonagura, Dan Hajducky and Austin Lindberg preview the matchups, predicting which clubs volition beryllium moving connected to the last 4 and which players volition articulation the league's different 20 clubs already watching the playoff play unfold from the comfortableness of their surviving rooms.

Jump to: Philadelphia-Cincinnati | Montreal-NYCFC | LAFC-Galaxy | Austin-Dallas


Eastern Conference

1. Philadelphia Union vs. 5. FC Cincinnati (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET)

FC Cincinnati weren't conscionable atrocious during their archetypal 3 years of beingness successful Major League Soccer. They astir redefined however spectacular a squad tin get everything wrong, from an on-field perspective, arsenic it entered the league. It came astatine a clip erstwhile first-year occurrence had go communal and several, replicable blueprints for occurrence had been established astir the league. So erstwhile things spiraled retired of control, the nine took a measurement back, looked astir and yet decided to inquire itself: What has worked?

And determination it was, 1 authorities over: the Philadelphia Union. Cincinnati appointed longtime Union enforcement Chris Albright arsenic their wide manager, helium hired Union adjunct manager Pat Noonan arsenic caput manager and ... voila, present are Cincinnati successful the Eastern Conference semifinals (after beating the New York Red Bulls successful the archetypal round), acceptable to play spoiler to the Union aft their historically ascendant 2022 season.

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That's an oversimplification, of course, but the velocity successful which Cincinnati turned things astir speaks to the value of a beforehand bureau and coaching unit that has acquisition successful the league. Only the wins tiebreaker prevented Philadelphia from winning the Supporters' Shield during a play successful which they were the champion squad by astir each mode to measurement it. With the league's champion defense, the Union should beryllium considered dense favorites Thursday nighttime astatine home, wherever they didn't suffer during the regular season. However, determination is thing to beryllium said astir familiarity arsenic an equalizer, truthful it volition beryllium absorbing to spot what tactical wrinkles Noonan rolls out. -- Bonagura

Predictions:

FCC person done good to alteration the trajectory of the organization, but the Union look to beryllium a span excessively far, and should prevail implicit their erstwhile apprentices successful Cincinnati GM Chris Albright and manager Pat Noonan. -- Carlisle

The Union were the champion squad successful the league during the regular play (certainly during the 2nd half), person a historically ascendant defence and were undefeated astatine home. There is nary logic successful picking against them. -- Bonagura

Sure, I've said I was a sucker for an underdog, but that Pollyanna conception has an expiration day erstwhile Philadelphia is connected the opposing half. The Union allowed lone 26 goals each season. Twenty-six! Their plus-46 extremity differential was the second-best tally successful a decade. Andre Blake, who'll triumph his grounds 3rd MLS Goalkeeper of the Year award, is an MVP finalist. The Union and Blake's storybook play doesn't extremity with the Orange and Blue. -- Hajducky

The astir prolific onslaught successful MLS, the stingiest defence successful the league, an MLS-best extremity differential astir doubly arsenic bully arsenic their nearest rivals, Philadelphia conscionable person excessively galore ways successful which they tin bushed opponents. -- Lindberg


2. CF Montreal vs. 3. New York City FC (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, stream unrecorded connected ESPN)

NYCFC are the defending champions, they've won 5 successful a row, and they looked backmost to their champion successful their Round One triumph implicit Inter Miami CF astatine Citi Field connected Monday night. And yet, they inactive look similar a agelong changeable to bushed Montreal astatine Stade Saputo connected Sunday.

CFM person mislaid conscionable erstwhile successful their past 16 games, dating to the mediate of July. In that stretch, they've earned 36 points (plus a playoff win) from 45 available. For context, Supporters' Shield winners LAFC and level-on-points Philadelphia took 27 and 34 points, respectively, implicit the aforesaid stretch.

In the 2 meetings betwixt the Bronx Blues and Montreal this season, it's the erstwhile who took 4 points but the second who outplayed their opponents successful each game. The Quebecois won the xG battle, 3.2 to 1.99 -- contempt the aggregate scoreline speechmaking 4-1 successful favour of NYCFC -- they outshot their rivals 26-15 and outchanced them 16-13.

This is simply a Montreal squad that, if not for the glitz and glamor of LAFC oregon the model-franchise designation of Philadelphia, would beryllium the speech of MLS successful these playoffs. -- Lindberg

Predictions:

The Blues seemed to regain immoderate of their title swagger successful eliminating Inter Miami, but Montreal's consistency means they seldom get flustered, and with Ismael Kone, Djordje Mihailovic and the ageless Kei Kamara clicking, CFM should get the win. -- Carlisle

Neither squad has mislaid successful much than a period and some looked the portion successful decisive first-round wins, but Montreal get the borderline playing astatine home. -- Bonagura

It's a testament to however bully NYCFC are, apical to bottom, that they mislaid 2021 Golden Boot victor Valentin Castellanos to Girona and inactive made the league semis. But New York stumbled to the playoffs, winning lone 4 MLS matches from Aug. 6 to season's end. The violative trio of Montreal's Romell Quioto, Kamara and Mihailovic -- each with astatine slightest 9 goals and six assists -- volition beryllium excessively overmuch for the Bronx Blues. -- Hajducky

Since the mediate of July, Montreal person mislaid conscionable once, demonstrating consistently awesome play, contrasted against NYCFC's agelong of 1 triumph successful 10 that preceded their existent five-game winning streak. CFM whitethorn deficiency the pedigree and glamor signings, but it's been 1 of the champion teams -- successful the truest consciousness of the connection -- successful MLS each season. -- Lindberg


Western Conference

1. LAFC vs. 4. LA Galaxy (Thursday, 10 p.m. ET)

Plenty has changed since LAFC defeated the LA Galaxy 3-2 connected July 8. The Galaxy's midfield has been wholly revamped with the additions of Ricard Puig and Gaston Brugman, and Martin Caceres has been brought successful to stabilize the back. LAFC haven't been idle either, bringing successful six caller players, including Gareth Bale, Giorgio Chiellini and Denis Bouanga.

The caller arrivals didn't rather person the desired effect for LAFC, who endured a 1-4-1 agelong earlier righting themselves precocious successful the campaign. But portion the Black and Gold are mostly playing the same, the Galaxy look a antithetic outfit, with the additions of Puig and Brugman having a ripple effect connected the remainder of the lineup. Douglas Costa tin instrumentality to the helping alternatively of shouldering the originative load that present belongs to Puig. As a result, the Galaxy's possession and passing person improved, arsenic has their finishing.

So what does this each mean for Thursday's Western Conference semifinal? It means a conflict royale successful the halfway of the park, with LAFC's Ilie Sanchez, on with Jose Cifuentes and Kellyn Acosta, tasked with stopping Puig, Brugman and Marky Delgado. Whichever squad prevails successful that country volition past beryllium capable to provender their potent frontline, that being Bouanga, Carlos Vela and Cristian Arango for LAFC with Costa, Samuel Grandsir and Javier Hernandez for the Galaxy. -- Carlisle

Predictions:

The Galaxy look to beryllium jelling astatine the close time, particularly with Puig and Brugman operating successful midfield. That makes for different Supporters' Shield victor to autumn abbreviated of an MLS Cup double. -- Carlisle

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Sebastian Salazar and Herculez Gomez foretell the victor of LAFC vs. LA Galaxy successful the MLS Cup playoffs.

The Black and Gold fixed thing that wasn't breached by adding Bale, Chiellini and DPs Bouanga and Cristian Tello during the regular season. The moves each made consciousness connected paper, but it hasn't worked retired according to plan. Meanwhile, the Galaxy turned things astir successful the 2nd fractional and look to beryllium peaking astatine the close time. LAFC are connected notice, but endowment should inactive triumph the day. -- Bonagura

Another league semifinals El Trafico, the archetypal since 2019. Does the Supporters' Shield curse -- lone 7 winners person besides won an MLS Cup -- rear its disfigured head? Or bash LAFC yet hoist the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy? It's LAFC's -- and Carlos Vela's -- year. -- Hajducky

In the 11 games since Puig's arrival, the Galaxy person been playing astatine a 1.81 points-per-game pace, a level of play that extrapolated crossed a afloat play would've made them a No. 2 effect successful the West. Meanwhile, LAFC person mislaid 5 of their past nine. -- Lindberg


2. Austin FC vs. 3. FC Dallas (Sunday astatine 8 p.m. ET, stream unrecorded connected ESPN)

Only 2 teams successful MLS scored much goals than Austin successful 2022. Only 1 conceded less than Dallas. This is simply a classical power-vs.-power matchup, and it's going to beryllium absorbing to spot however Nico Estevez organizes his FCD broadside to effort to incorporate the Texas superior club.

In the Round One shootout triumph implicit RSL, Austin got small successful the mode of accidental instauration from attackers Maximiliano Urruti, Ethan Finlay, Diego Fagundez, Moussa Djitte and Emiliano Rigoni, which suggests that Dallas could lucifer up favorably. However, that would disregard MVP campaigner Sebastian Driussi, who scored some the Verde's goals successful that win, connected apical of the 22 helium netted successful the regular season, and has a knack for moving into pockets of abstraction and conjuring opportunities from deeper starting positions.

No 1 successful MLS has figured retired Driussi. Whoever lines up astatine the basal of midfield for Dallas, beryllium it Facundo Quignon oregon Edwin Cerrillo, they're going to person their hands afloat shadowing the 26-year-old River Plate academy graduate.

To sweeten an already appetizing cookware is the ambiance successful Q2 Stadium. It was large and rowdy successful the city's first-ever nonrecreational playoff game, present adhd the hostility that volition originate from Dallas supporters driving 200 miles to the southbound for a postseason Texan derby. And with Formula One successful municipality for the U.S. Grand Prix connected Sunday (1:30 p.m. ET, stream unrecorded connected ABC), instrumentality excitement won't beryllium higher anyplace successful the satellite than it volition beryllium successful Austin. -- Lindberg

Predictions:

There isn't overmuch separating the 2 teams successful this all-Texas matchup, but successful Driussi, the Verde person conscionable a smidgen much quality, and that should beryllium to beryllium capable to get Austin the victory. -- Carlisle

This should beryllium an unthinkable ambiance astatine Q2. In fact, possibly 1 of the champion MLS has ever had successful the authorities for this Texas derby. Austin is the prime based connected their explosive offense, contempt FC Dallas owning the champion antiaircraft goal-scoring grounds successful Western Conference this season. -- Bonagura

Last time, I said the MLS Cup playoffs mightiness beryllium a fitting farewell to Jesus Ferreira earlier helium gets poached by a European club. Well, Ferreira won the Young Player of the Year grant connected Tuesday, and everything seems to beryllium bouncing close conscionable weeks from Qatar. Austin bushed LAFC 4-1 successful precocious August and past won lone erstwhile the remainder of the season, allowing doubly arsenic galore arsenic they scored successful that span. The ingredients are determination for thing spectacular for Dallas. -- Hajducky

As hypnotic arsenic Driussi's play is, Dallas' enactment and their heavy and adaptable onslaught volition contiguous Austin with problems that Josh Wolff volition conflict to solve. -- Lindberg

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