NBA season betting tips: Odds, predictions, picks

2 years ago 48

7:05 AM ET

  • ESPN Betting Analysts

The NBA is back, and that means plentifulness of betting opportunities coming our way.

Our analysts reply questions surrounding immoderate of the astir fashionable bets heading into the play and connection their picks. We're talking NBA title, agelong shots, grant victor and more. Let's get to it.

All likelihood from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.


What is your favourite stake to triumph championship/conference/division?

Doug Kezirian: LA Clippers +700 to triumph the title. Honestly, they should beryllium the betting favorites -- connected paper, astatine least. We cognize the way grounds of this seemingly snake-bitten enactment and the checkered wellness past of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. However, this squad is loaded. Their 2nd 5 is amended than immoderate teams' starters, and that really volition substance due to the fact that they volition inactive prime up wins portion addressing load management. I similar that John Wall is simply a relation subordinate and guys similar Norman Powell, Robert Covington, Luke Kennard and Terrance Mann volition travel disconnected the bench. They are incredibly deep, and caput manager Ty Lue has done it before.

Andre Snellings: The Cleveland Cavaliers to triumph the Central Division (+260). The Cavaliers challenged to triumph their part past season, contending until aft the All-Star Break erstwhile injuries derailed them. They instrumentality their full young nucleus from past season, healthy, and adhd Donovan Mitchell to the premix arsenic different premier discourtesy creator/finisher. The lone questions successful my mind, are if they tin make chemistry and enactment healthy. If so, the Cavs person the endowment to triumph 55 games. I inactive judge the Milwaukee Bucks to beryllium the champion squad successful the division, but their goals are postseason-oriented and overmuch of their nucleus is successful their 30s and volition request to conserve to beryllium acceptable for the playoffs. The Cavs are each successful their aboriginal 20s, tin tally each time and are trying to beryllium they're acceptable for the large time.

Tyler Fulghum: I'll laic the foodstuff with Denver Nuggets to triumph the Northwest Division (-140). The lone legit menace successful the part is the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves (+140). The Utah Jazz and the Oklahoma Thunder volition beryllium actively tanking for Victor Wembanyama, and the Portland Trail Blazers don't person capable astir Damian Lillard anymore. With Nikola Jokic alone, the Nuggets are 1 of the much formidable teams successful the West, but this year, PG Jamal Murray and F Michael Porter Jr. instrumentality to springiness the two-time league MVP the assistance helium needs.

Anita Marks: Bucks to triumph the title astatine +800. This is simply a Bucks squad with small turnover, that came a crippled distant from representing the East successful the NBA title past play and was without Kris Middleton. Giannis Antetokounmpo is 27 and entering his prime. If the Bucks tin debar the wounded bug they suffered past season, these are large odds.

Joe Fortenbaugh: Nuggets 18-1 to triumph the title. Those likelihood connote a 5.2% triumph probability, which I judge is worthy a bet. Denver won 48 games past play with nary Murray and immoderate of the weakest extent successful the NBA. So what happens present that Murray is backmost and the extent is much than respectable? This squad has the goods to drawback a top-3 effect successful the Western Conference.


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What's your favourite agelong changeable stake to triumph championship/conference/division?

Snellings: Toronto Raptors +1100 to triumph Atlantic and Timberwolves to triumph the West +1600. The Raptors challenged to triumph the Atlantic past season, adjacent though they were expected to person a rebuild season. They are led by 2 All-Stars successful Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes is lone getting better, and they built a spot much extent onto their squad this offseason, which helps them beryllium amended prepared for the rigors of the marathon season. They are successful a pugnacious division, with 3 different morganatic contenders and a New York Knicks squad that is lone a play removed from a top-4 effect arsenic well, but I'd estimation the Raptors person much similar a 1 successful 5 accidental to triumph than the 1 successful 11 of their odds.

The East is stacked this season, with astatine slightest 9 teams that could beryllium credible preseason picks to marque the Conference Finals. The West, connected the different hand, has less morganatic contenders. The Timberwolves made the playoffs past play arsenic a squad connected the mode up, going 22-10 down the agelong to unafraid their effect earlier sitting their players successful the past game. Their offseason commercialized for Rudy Gobert is perchance massive. Gobert has ranked arsenic a top-10 interaction subordinate successful the NBA for the past 2 seasons, astir wholly owed to defence -- the Timberwolves' biggest weakness. If Gobert fits connected the caller roster and leads them to a beardown squad defense, Anthony Edwards makes the All-Star leap successful play 3 that galore expect and the squad stays comparatively healthy, they could legitimately contend successful the West. The biggest origin moving against them is acquisition -- and that's important -- but I inactive deliberation they person amended than 16-1 likelihood for it to each travel together.

Kezirian: Detroit Pistons 100-1 to triumph the Central. First off, this is not going to happen. Way excessively overmuch has to occur, specified arsenic injuries to different teams' stars. However, we saw the Cavs pb this part past play until crumbling late. Detroit could conceivably propulsion it off, though I similar the terms of +650 to marque the playoffs overmuch more. Cade Cunningham is simply a budding star, and possibly helium continues evolving into the 2nd coming of Tracy McGrady. Summer league indicated they person 2 much gems successful Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. Shooting was an contented past year, but they added Bojan Bogdanovic. This squad is well-balanced and could beryllium a regular-season nuisance for contenders. The +650 is decidedly a play for me.

Fulghum: I deliberation the Cavaliers (+1500) and Atlanta Hawks (+2000) person legit shots to contend for a top-4 effect successful the Eastern Conference. The East is present the deeper, superior league successful presumption of talent, successful my eyes. The summation of Donovan Mitchell gives Cleveland a legit go-to scorer astatine the extremity of games. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley signifier 1 of the champion frontcourt duos successful the full league, and Darius Garland is 1 of those players contending for "Best-in-the-NBA-No-One-Knows-About." The summation of Dejounte Murray to the Hawks gives Atlanta a cleanable backcourt foil to Trae Young. Young has already proven susceptible of carrying a squad offensively against immoderate squad successful the league. Adding Murray makes this squad acold much diversion and formidable connected defence -- conscionable what they needed. The East is decidedly deep, but I tin spot either 1 of these teams taking vantage of atrocious wounded luck for the different contenders and winning the conference.

Eric Moody: Like a moth to a flame, I'm drawn to the Lakers arsenic an 18-1 agelong changeable stake to triumph the championship. This volition beryllium LeBron James' 20th play successful the NBA, and helium had a large play past year, averaging 30.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.3 SPG and 1.1 BPG. It is good known that Anthony Davis is susceptible of large things (he averaged 23.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG, and 2.3 BPG past season), but his biggest occupation is his availability. Over the past 2 seasons, helium has played successful 76 retired of 154 games. This offseason the Lakers added Patrick Beverley, who is susceptible of delivering connected the violative and antiaircraft ends of the floor. Everyone is wondering, though, if James, Davis, and Russell Westbrook tin coexist. If that's what's champion for the team, volition Westbrook instrumentality a measurement back? Apparently Westbrook and caller Lakers manager Darvin Ham get on well. It's wide that James is nearing the extremity of his career, but astatine these odds, this squad stands a accidental of taking the crown.

What is your favourite triumph full bet?

Fortenbaugh: Jazz nether 23.5 wins. After the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades, is determination anybody connected the satellite who thinks Danny Ainge is trying to triumph this play -- particularly with Victor Wembanyana waiting successful the wings arsenic the archetypal wide prime successful the draft? What's the constituent of trading 2 superstars and stockpiling each of those draught picks if you aren't tanking for 1 of the astir highly-coveted prospects of the past 2 decades?

Snellings: Chicago Bulls implicit 42.5 wins. The Bulls won 46 games past season, but that was aft injuries derailed what could person been a peculiar campaign. They were 27-12 done 39 games, erstwhile All-Star Zach Lavine injured his genu aboriginal successful crippled 40. They'd suffer 5 of six games with him out, and adjacent aft helium returned helium wasn't astatine afloat speed, and the squad felt it. When added to the large wounded absences of Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, Coby White and Patrick Williams, it was excessively overmuch for DeMar DeRozan to effort to transportation the squad through, and they struggled to a 19-24 decorativeness to the season. While Ball is inactive injured, the remainder of the squad is healthy, and the Bulls brought successful veterans Goran Dragic and Andre Drummond this offseason to physique prime depth. Their squad is built to triumph much similar 50-ish games than 42.5.

Kezirian: Bulls nether 42.5 wins. Andre is simply a bud, but I americium straight other here. This is not a .500 shot club. Ball mightiness miss the full season, and Caruso besides has wounded issues. Overall, their defence stinks and that's conscionable 1 crushed Nikola Vucevic does not acceptable well. Plus, Patrick Williams was slated to beryllium a immense focal constituent and helium has fundamentally been demoted from the starting lineup successful the preseason. They won 46 games past twelvemonth with Derozan successful the MVP conversation. I bash not expect a .500 grounds this season.

Fulghum: Los Angeles Lakers nether 45.5 wins. Unless the Westbrook for Buddy Hield and Myles Turner commercialized really goes down, I conflict to spot however this Lakers squad wins 46-plus games. Let's commencement with the Pacific Division, which is astir apt the strongest successful the full league. The Warriors, Clippers and Suns each person triumph totals northbound of 50, portion Sacramento astir apt has its champion roster connected insubstantial of the past decade. Even if Anthony Davis and LeBron James stay steadfast each season, bash they person capable astir them to compete? The Lakers' grounds successful games past play wherever the 2 played unneurotic was fundamentally .500. Now, if you deliberation Russ is traded for shooting (Hield) and defence (Turner) then, by each means, disregard what I conscionable said. But that inactive seems similar a tube imagination for LA fixed its existent situation.

Marks: Hawks implicit 45.5 wins (-120) and Lakers nether 45.5 (-125). I emotion the summation of Murray to his roster. Align him with Young, Hunter, Bogdanovic, John Collins and Clint Capela ... ticker out! I person this squad winning 50 games. The Hawks volition look the 16th-ranked docket successful the NBA, based connected their opponents' combined triumph full past year. As for the Lakers, Lebron's durability is simply a happening (he has averaged lone 55 games portion a Laker), Anthony Davis is brittle and Russell Westbrook is drama. There is excessively overmuch bully contention successful the West.

Moody: Nuggets implicit 50.5 wins. Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray are backmost with the Nuggets to synch backmost up with Jokic and marque them 1 of the apical teams successful the West. This trio has large chemistry together. Since the 2017-18 season, the Nuggets person had 1 play with 54 wins and person been connected gait to surpass 50.5 wins successful the others. As for Denver's beforehand office, they did an admirable occupation of supplementing their large 3 this offseason arsenic well. I'm besides excited to spot however Bones Hyland continues to develop. He volition play a important relation successful the Nuggets rotation. A precise bully and underrated coach, Michael Malone is exceptional astatine processing relationships with his players. Everyone connected the squad is buying into his hard-working culture. The Nuggets are well-positioned to triumph 50 oregon much games this year.

Which awards are you betting up of the season?

Fortenbaugh: Jayson Tatum MVP astatine 12-1. He has averaged astatine slightest 26 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists per crippled successful each of the past 2 seasons and is the look of a Boston Celtics squad that could triumph much regular-season games than immoderate squad successful the NBA this season. I besides similar the information that Golden State dressed him down successful the NBA Finals past summer. That's the benignant of humbling acquisition that creates a existent playmaker.

Snellings: LeBron for MVP astatine +2700 intrigues me. It was conscionable 2 years agone that James led the Lakers to a championship. Both helium and Anthony Davis person struggled done injuries since then, and the squad deconstructed its relation players successful favour of seasoned scorers that didn't fit. The nationalist has turned against them aft 2 consecutive seasons missing the playoffs, and the squad has looked pedestrian. But I conscionable person a feeling astir this season. LeBron knows he's adjacent the end, and this whitethorn beryllium his past existent accidental to compete. Even injured, LeBron enactment up 1 of his champion statistical campaigns past season. If helium plays 70 games, the remainder of the squad stays comparatively steadfast and the acceptable works amended this season, the Lakers could inactive triumph 50 oregon much games. LeBron volition person the stats, he'll person the communicative of bringing backmost a squad near for dead, and he'll person the ace communicative of surpassing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the astir points successful NBA past this season. Those types of narratives could enactment him squarely into the MVP hunt arsenic a comparative agelong shot.

Kezirian: Tari Eason to triumph Rookie of the Year (50-1). This is improbable due to the fact that helium plays successful Houston and the Rockets volition not make overmuch attention. However, the 17th wide prime is wide considered the biggest draught steal, and Rockets adjunct John Lucas labeled him a "better Dennis Rodman." That whitethorn look aggressive, but he's posting awesome numbers without plays adjacent being called for him. Eason volition outwork opponents astir each azygous night, and the Rockets cognize however to skew a container score. And determination are 80-1 likelihood besides retired determination astatine different books.

Marks: Paolo Banchero to triumph Rookie of the Year (+200) and Joel Embiid to triumph MVP (+650). Since 1990, 9 of the past 15 ROY winners person been drafted successful the apical three. Banchero volition beryllium playing for a horrible Orlando Magic squad -- wherever helium volition beryllium getting a ton of usage. He is the astir NBA-ready rookie and should pb the Magic successful scoring and assists.

It's clip for Embiid to halt being the bridesmaid. After 2 consecutive years finishing 2nd connected the MVP voting, this is his season! The Philadelphia 76ers are built to triumph the East, and James Harden has accepted the relation arsenic facilitator. The 76ers discourtesy volition acceptable up Embiid for a tremendous season.

Moody: Ben Simmons for Defensive Player of the Year (+3000). The mode Simmons looks, however galore games he'll play and wherever he'll beryllium mentally and physically stay to beryllium seen aft a twelvemonth and a fractional off. He's surrounded by 2 elite violative players successful Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. The Nets could payment instantly from Simmons' antiaircraft skills. It's worthy recalling that Simmons averaged conscionable 14.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks and 0.1 3-pointers during the 2020-21 campaign. As a three-time All-Star and third-team All-NBA selection, helium has earned designation from the NBA. A steals champion successful 2020, Simmons was already named to 2 NBA All-Defensive archetypal teams. This is simply a stake I americium consenting to marque astatine these odds. There's thing amended than a large redemption story, and Simmons tin constitute 1 this year.

Is determination thing other you privation to stake up of the season?

Kezirian: I stake Embiid +700 for MVP and Sixers implicit 51.5 wins. Philly has demonstrated it tin win successful the regular season, and truthful has Doc Rivers implicit the years. Everything fits good together, and they should beryllium an implicit force. Embiid has finished runner-up to the MVP successful consecutive seasons, and I deliberation helium breaks through. I uncertainty his likelihood volition beryllium longer than +700, truthful that's wherefore I stake it now.

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