7:00 AM ET
Mackenzie KraemerESPN Staff Writer
- Works astatine ESPN Stats & Information
The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs person opened up a spread betwixt themselves and the remainder of the NFL successful the betting market. The apical 3 betting favorites are -150 to triumph the Super Bowl entering this week astatine Caesars Sportsbook, portion the different 29 teams are +125. All 3 of those teams are double-digit favorites this week.
The Chiefs are the largest favourite successful the Super Bowl epoch against a squad connected astatine slightest a five-game winning streak. The Bills are the 2nd squad successful the past 40 seasons to beryllium astatine slightest 12-point roadworthy favorites against a squad with a winning record, joining the 2007 Patriots, which did it twice. The Eagles are the largest roadworthy favorites successful the past of Thursday Night Football (since 2006).
However, the Eagles and Bills could some beryllium connected upset alert if caller trends hold. Over the past 2 seasons, double-digit roadworthy favorites are conscionable 9-7 consecutive up, and 3-5 consecutive up erstwhile they are favored by astatine slightest 12 points. Double-digit location underdogs are up 28 units connected the wealth enactment since the commencement of past season.
Season report:
Best ATS teams: Atlanta, Dallas and the New York Giants (6-2)
Worst ATS teams: Tampa Bay and Jacksonville (both 2-6)
Road teams: 64-56-3 ATS (.533)
Underdogs: 66-51-3 ATS (.564); went 7-7 each of past 3 weeks
Unders: 70-51-2 (.579); went 7-7 each of past 2 weeks
Philadelphia Eagles (-14) astatine Houston Texans, Thursday astatine 8:15 ET
This is the 4th clip successful the Super Bowl epoch the Eagles person been double-digit roadworthy favorites. They mislaid 2 of the erstwhile 3 times outright (0-3 ATS).
Philadelphia is the largest roadworthy favourite ever successful a Thursday Night Football crippled (since 2006).
Double-digit location underdogs are 7-9 outright and 11-5 ATS implicit the past 2 seasons. Betting double-digit location underdogs connected the wealth enactment would person netted 28 units implicit the past 2 seasons, including Carolina winning arsenic a +550 underdog successful Week 7 against Tampa Bay this season. Home underdogs of astatine slightest 12 points are 5-3 outright (+26.25 units) implicit the past 2 seasons (7-1 ATS).
Double-digit location underdogs are 13-5 ATS successful prime-time games implicit the past 20 seasons (5-1 ATS past 10 seasons).
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS successful its past six games.
Teams 4-0 oregon amended are 3-10 ATS successful roadworthy prime-time games implicit the past 10 seasons (2-8 ATS erstwhile squad is 5-0 oregon better).
Prime-time unders are 15-9-1 this play and 103-75-4 implicit the past 4 seasons. Thursday nighttime unders are 30-21 implicit the past 4 seasons (5-3 this season).
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) astatine Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday astatine 1 ET
Derek Carr is 4-12-1 ATS arsenic a roadworthy favorite, including 0-7 ATS successful his past 7 instances. Since 2017, Carr is 1-10-1 ATS arsenic a roadworthy favorite.
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS successful its past 5 games. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS, tied with Tampa Bay for the worst people successful the league.
All 4 Jacksonville location games person gone nether the full (including London location game).
Buffalo Bills (-13) astatine New York Jets, Sunday astatine 1 ET
New York is the largest location underdog by immoderate squad with a winning grounds since 2007. Buffalo is the 2nd squad successful the past 40 seasons to beryllium astatine slightest a 12-point roadworthy favourite implicit a squad with a winning record, joining 2007 New England, which did it twice.
Double-digit location underdogs are 7-9 outright and 11-5 ATS implicit the past 2 seasons. Betting double-digit location underdogs connected the wealth enactment would person netted 28 units implicit the past 2 seasons, including Carolina winning arsenic a +550 underdog successful Week 7 against Tampa Bay this season. Home underdogs of astatine slightest 12 points are 5-3 outright (+26.25 units) implicit the past 2 seasons (7-1 ATS).
All 4 Buffalo roadworthy games person gone nether the total. Unders are 6-1 successful Buffalo games this season,
Josh Allen is 7-3-2 ATS arsenic a double-digit favorite.
Unders successful divisional games are 27-12-1 this play (.692).
0:38
Tyler Fulghum lays retired wherefore helium expects the nether to deed erstwhile the Bills instrumentality connected the Jets successful Week 9.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) astatine Atlanta Falcons, Sunday astatine 1 ET
The Chargers are 3-0 ATS connected the roadworthy this season.
Atlanta is 3-0 ATS arsenic a location underdog and 6-1 ATS wide arsenic an underdog this season.
Chargers overs are 8-1 aft a nonaccomplishment nether Brandon Staley with 8 consecutive overs.
Atlanta is 7-2 ATS nether Arthur Smith erstwhile the enactment is betwixt +3 and -3.
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) astatine Chicago Bears, Sunday astatine 1 ET
Justin Fields is 1-5 ATS arsenic a location underdog and 5-11 ATS arsenic an underdog successful his career.
Miami is 4-1 ATS erstwhile Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the game, compared to 0-3 ATS erstwhile helium does not. Tagovailoa is 16-10-1 ATS successful his vocation (including games helium near early).
Miami has lone been favored by astatine slightest 4.5 points connected the roadworthy erstwhile successful the past 5 seasons (2020 astatine New York Jets - won by 17 arsenic 7.5-point favorites).
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) astatine Detroit Lions, Sunday astatine 1 ET
Green Bay is 0-4 ATS successful its past 4 games arsenic a favourite with 3 consecutive outright losses.
Green Bay is 11-2 ATS aft a nonaccomplishment nether Matt LaFleur (2-2 ATS this season).
Detroit is 0-4 ATS successful its past 4 games.
Detroit is 2-6 ATS erstwhile it is NOT astatine slightest a four-point underdog nether Dan Campbell (12-4 ATS erstwhile getting astatine slightest 4 points).
Detroit is 8-2 ATS against Green Bay since 2017.
Detroit is 7-3 ATS arsenic a location underdog nether Dan Campbell.
All 4 Detroit location games person gone implicit the full this season.
Unders successful part games are 27-12-1 this play (.692).
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) astatine Washington Commanders, Sunday astatine 1 ET
Washington has won and covered 3 consecutive games, including back-to-back wins arsenic an underdog with Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke is 8-2 ATS successful his past 10 starts.
Washington is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records.
Minnesota is the 2nd squad successful the past 20 seasons to beryllium 6-1 oregon amended outright done 7 games portion having a losing grounds against the dispersed (3-4), joining 2021 Tampa Bay.
0:32
Joe Fortenbaugh explains wherefore helium is taking the Commanders positive the points against the Vikings connected Sunday.
Carolina Panthers astatine Cincinnati Bengals (-7), Sunday astatine 1 ET
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS successful its past six games (did not screen connected Monday).
Carolina has covered back-to-back games aft going 3-17 ATS successful its erstwhile 20 games.
P.J. Walker is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU successful his vocation arsenic a starter, each arsenic an underdog. He is +7.40 units connected the wealth enactment successful 5 vocation starts.
Joe Burrow is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 outright arsenic astatine slightest a seven-point favorite.
Indianapolis Colts astatine New England Patriots (-5.5), Sunday astatine 1 ET
Indianapolis games are 7-1 to the nether this season, tied with Denver for the highest nether percent successful the NFL. Seven consecutive Indianapolis roadworthy games person gone nether the full including each 4 this season.
New England is 4-1 ATS successful its past 5 games.
Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS arsenic a roadworthy underdog since the commencement of past play (6-1 ATS, 5-2 outright successful past seven).
Over the past 10 seasons, Bill Belichick is 2-5 ATS against quarterbacks making their archetypal oregon 2nd vocation start. Belichick is 1-4 ATS successful his New England vocation astatine location against quarterbacks successful 1 of their archetypal 2 starts.
0:33
Tyler Fulghum is taking the nether betwixt the Colts and the Patriots connected Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks astatine Arizona Cardinals (-2), Sunday astatine 4:05 ET
Seattle has covered 3 consecutive games and 4 of its past five.
Seattle is 47-28-2 ATS arsenic an underdog nether Pete Carroll (.627). Seattle is 4-2 outright and ATS arsenic an underdog this season.
Kliff Kingsbury is 5-11 ATS and 7-9 outright arsenic a location favorite.
Arizona is 0-5 outright and ATS successful its past 5 games against part opponents including playoffs (0-2 this season).
Unders successful part games are 27-12-1 this play (.692).
Los Angeles Rams astatine Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), Sunday astatine 4:25 ET
The mean full successful the erstwhile 5 matchups betwixt Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford was 52.3, including playoffs. Their Week 3 gathering past play was 55, portion their playoff gathering was 48, with some games going over.
Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS successful its past six games, the longest single-season ATS losing streak of Tom Brady's career. Tampa Bay has been favored successful each of those games.
Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS astatine location this season, each arsenic a favorite.
Tampa Bay is 2-6 ATS, tied with Jacksonville for the worst people successful the league.
The Rams are 9-1 ATS successful the past 10 meetings.
Tennessee Titans astatine Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), Sunday astatine 8:20 ET
Tennessee is the 3rd squad successful the Super Bowl epoch (since 1966) to beryllium a double-digit underdog contempt entering a crippled connected astatine slightest a five-game winning streak. The existent enactment of 12.5 would beryllium the largest dispersed for a squad connected a five-game winning streak successful the Super Bowl era.
Andy Reid is 15-8 ATS successful his vocation disconnected a bye (5-4 with Kansas City). He is 2-3 ATS arsenic a double-digit favourite disconnected a bye.
Mike Vrabel is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright arsenic an underdog of astatine slightest 4 points, including playoffs. He is 2-1 outright and ATS arsenic a double-digit underdog, though helium has ne'er been bigger than a 10-point underdog. The 1 nonaccomplishment came earlier this play astatine Buffalo (+10).
Tennessee is 5-0 outright and ATS successful its past 5 games. The past 4 Tennessee games person gone nether the total.
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS astatine location this season.
Double-digit favorites are 8-3-1 ATS successful prime-time games since the commencement of past season.
Prime-time unders are 15-9-1 this play and 103-75-4 implicit the past 4 seasons.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) astatine New Orleans Saints, Monday astatine 8:15 ET (ESPN)
Baltimore is 5-12 ATS arsenic a favourite since the commencement of past season, including 0-3 ATS successful its past 3 games.
Lamar Jackson is 18-8-2 ATS successful his vocation connected the road. He is besides 12-2-2 ATS erstwhile the enactment is betwixt +3 and -3.
Four of the past 5 Baltimore games went nether the total. Four of the past 5 New Orleans games went implicit the total.
Home underdogs are 8-2 ATS and 7-3 outright connected "Monday Night Football" implicit the past 2 seasons (14-6 ATS past 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season).
Prime-time unders are 15-9-1 this play and 103-75-4 implicit the past 4 seasons.
0:38
Doug Kezirian explains wherefore he's laying points connected the Ravens erstwhile they play the Saints connected Monday Night Football.
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