NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Bengals solve Browns; Jets sweep Bills?

Week 14's Sunday slate brings america an abundance of intriguing NFL matchups, including the Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 46.5) hosting the division-rival Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets going for a play expanse of the Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 43), the Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 45) visiting the New York Giants, and the San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 37.5) hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

What is worthy looking astatine from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their insights into the games with tips and picks.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.

The Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 46.5), winners of 4 consecutive and six of seven, big the Cleveland Browns connected Sunday. The lone nonaccomplishment was to these Browns connected 'Monday Night Football' a period ago. Joe Burrow is 0-4 successful his vocation vs. the Browns. Do the Browns person his number, oregon are you laying the 6 with the red-hot Bengals?

Kezirian: I deliberation it's silly to deliberation Cleveland has Burrow's fig due to the fact that we indispensable measure the discourse of each loss. The archetypal 2 losses came successful Burrow's rookie play successful which Cincy won 4 games. In fact, the Bengals scored astatine slightest 30 points successful some and mislaid by 1 score; the defence was the issue. The adjacent twelvemonth progressive a crippled that conscionable acceptable up perfectly for the Browns, involving a week successful which they chopped Odell Beckham Jr. and fundamentally faced a must-win situation. And this year's nonaccomplishment was Cincinnati's archetypal crippled since losing WR Ja'Marr Chase to injury. The discourtesy was wholly lost. I americium going to springiness the Bengals a walk connected that one. As for this matchup, it's tricky due to the fact that of the rust QB Deshaun Watson demonstrated successful his return. I lean to the Bengals, but it's not my favourite play.

Fortenbaugh: I'm not rushing to laic the -6 due to the fact that the Bengals are disconnected a monster triumph implicit Kansas City. But I would play Cincinnati successful a 6-point teaser with Philadelphia. Cleveland's discourtesy has obscurity to spell but up aft producing conscionable six points past week astatine Houston. But I inactive deliberation Deshaun Watson is simply a bully region from being capable to spell toe-to-toe with Burrow, connected his location turf, with a Cleveland defence that ranks 27th successful scoring.

Schatz: I cognize it is conscionable 1 game, but I'll admit that I'm discouraged astir the Browns based connected however unprepared Watson looked past week successful his archetypal crippled backmost aft astir 2 years. The Browns' discourtesy was really truly bully with Jacoby Brissett astatine quarterback, and I would astir apt instrumentality the Browns and the points with Brissett. But if the Browns' discourtesy is adjacent conscionable mean alternatively than good, their mediocre defence (27th successful DVOA) volition springiness up excessively galore points to Burrow and the Bengals. With the crippled successful Cincinnati, I'll instrumentality the location team.

Moody: I'm taking the Bengals present coming disconnected of a immense triumph implicit the Chiefs. With Joe Mixon expected to instrumentality and Chase not appearing to person immoderate setbacks, Cincinnati volition beryllium astatine afloat spot offensively. The Bengals person covered the dispersed 12 times successful the past 16 games betwixt these 2 teams. At home, Cincinnati should beryllium capable to instrumentality attraction of business. Watson, successful lone his 2nd crippled pursuing a agelong layoff, is not yet acceptable to spell toe-to-toe with Burrow and this red-hot Bengals team. The Browns' discourtesy struggled against the Texans past week. In their past 10 games, the Bengals are 9-1 against the spread, and they are 8-1 ATS successful their past 9 location games.

Snellings: I'm taking the Bengals -6, implicit 46.5. I've been beating the drum for rather a portion that the Bengals' dilatory commencement was astir wholly owed to A) Burrow having preseason appendix country and not getting to play astatine each with B) a wholly rebuilt violative enactment successful C) 2 games against defenses featuring past year's Defensive Player of the Year (T.J. Watt) and apt this year's (Micah Parsons). Perfect storm. Since then, the squad has progressively gotten better, with the 1 hiccup being their MNF matchup with the Browns that was A) the archetypal crippled without Chase and B) the nonstop aforesaid time Bengals adjunct manager Adam Zimmer was recovered dead. Again, determination are reasons the Bengals did not look similar themselves successful that matchup.

The Bengals' discourtesy is clicking close now, and with Chase a week healthier and Mixon presumably back, they are adjacent to afloat speed. They'll miss choky extremity Hayden Hurst but should person plentifulness successful the vessel to enactment a large fig connected the scoreboard. I expect Watson to look amended for the Browns successful Week 2, but I deliberation helium inactive has a ways to spell earlier he's acceptable to vie with an in-form Bengals team. Plus, the Bengals person been proceeding advertisement nauseam however the Browns ain them. I deliberation they travel retired this week and effort to beryllium a point.

Marks: I emotion the Bengals this week astatine location against the Browns. The Burrow-led discourtesy has scored connected implicit 50% of its possessions since Week 8 and is hoping to get Mixon backmost successful action. Watson was beyond rusty past week (54% completions, 6 yards per walk attempt, and lone 3-for-9 for 37 yards erstwhile pressured).

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Tyler Fulghum discusses his reasons for going with the nether arsenic the Jets question to look the Bills.

Another large AFC East matchup arsenic the Buffalo Bills (-10, 43) big the New York Jets. New York won this matchup 20-17 5 weeks ago. Are you taking the 10 arsenic the Jets spell for the sweep, oregon laying with the Bills?

Schatz: Please give maine the Jets +10. I deliberation this enactment is conscionable excessively large fixed however good the Jets' defence has played this twelvemonth -- and however good it played against the Bills successful Week 9. Yes, the Bills volition person Jordan Poyer backmost but possibly not Matt Milano, and Von Miller is done for the year. Meanwhile, the Jets look truthful overmuch amended with Mike White astatine backmost alternatively of Zach Wilson. The Bills are inactive No. 1 successful DVOA, intelligibly the amended team, but this enactment should truly beryllium much similar 7 oregon adjacent 6.5.

Kezirian: I similar the Jets, too. The Bills punctual maine of the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs, who yet finished 8-11 ATS, including the playoffs. The violative numbers are impressive, boosted by a stellar quarterback, but the Bills besides person a knack for playing down to their opponent. Entering this season, Buffalo was connected a ridiculous tally with astir each wins coming by treble digits. However, 4 of this season's 9 wins are by azygous digits, and it is simply a respectable 6-5-1 ATS. I deliberation the Jets with Mike White are decent offensively to spell on with a beardown defense.

Moody: I'm taking the 10 and backing the Jets. Even though it's hard to ideate New York winning its 2nd consecutive crippled against the Bills, the Jets are precise susceptible of staying wrong the existent number, particularly with White alternatively than Wilson nether center. New York's defence is fantabulous astatine stopping the run, has a large walk unreserved and a precise beardown secondary. Although the Jets mightiness not beryllium capable to wholly halt a Bills discourtesy that ranks among the apical 5 successful full yards and points scored per game, they tin dilatory them down. The Jets are 4-0 against the dispersed successful their past 4 games aft a straight-up loss.

Snellings: Lump maine among those taking the Jets and the points. In what should beryllium a defensive-oriented game, 10 points seems similar excessively ample of a spread. I deliberation the Bills win, and they mightiness commencement to look amended arsenic they attack the playoffs, but 10 is excessively many.

Marks: I similar the under successful this matchup. The Jets' defence is allowing a league-low 26.6 yards per possession this season, opponents are scoring connected lone 30% of their violative drives, and neither team's discourtesy scores good wrong the 5-yard line. Bad upwind is expected successful Buffalo connected Sunday (30 degrees, snow, upwind gusts up to 15 mph). The nether is the play here!

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What are the astir important things our analytics say?

Walder: Here are 3 sides against the dispersed that our Football Power Index likes.

New England Patriots (-1.5, 43.5) astatine Arizona Cardinals
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET connected ESPN, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

FPI prediction: Cardinals by 4.1

The champion portion successful this crippled is the Patriots' defense, by faaaaaar. But! The worst portion successful this crippled is the Patriots' offense. And there's an imbalance betwixt those 2 things: Offense is much predictive than defense. So having had the amended discourtesy (even though a now-healthy Kyler Murray missed a mates of games) does determination the needle to Arizona here. Even if you don't bargain the Cardinals being 4-point favorites, I'm not definite wherefore we shouldn't deliberation of these teams arsenic being even, with the Cardinals arsenic flimsy favorites astatine home. Remember the Cardinals are coming disconnected a bye, too.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 51.5) astatine Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.

FPI prediction: Chargers by 1.8

FPI is showing restraint connected the Dolphins present aft they were contained by the 49ers. I'll beryllium honest, this 1 scares maine due to the fact that I'm a believer successful Miami's discourtesy and deliberation we'll look astatine the San Francisco crippled arsenic a blip -- and I deliberation the Chargers person shown america they are mediocre agelong capable for america to judge it. But! The exemplary wants what it wants. And it wants the Chargers. At slightest you're getting the hook.

Baltimore Ravens astatine Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 36.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

FPI prediction: Ravens by 2.1

In opposition to the erstwhile pick, I love this 1 due to the fact that I see myself a founding subordinate of the Tyler Huntley instrumentality club. Huntley not lone plays a akin benignant to Lamar Jackson, but he's besides a beauteous bully quarterback, successful my opinion! A top-32 QB, I'd say. He was fantabulous successful assemblage and has proved himself a susceptible backup successful the NFL too. Clearly FPI, which is often overly skeptical of backup QBs, agrees.

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Joe Fortenbaugh explains wherefore the 49ers should screen the dispersed vs. the Buccaneers.

What is your favourite stake for Sunday?

Fortenbaugh: I'd lay the -3.5 with San Francisco implicit Tampa Bay. I cognize each the speech volition beryllium astir rookie backmost Brock Purdy, but my superior absorption is connected Tampa Bay. Specifically, had the Saints and Rams not wholly mismanaged their respective end-of-game scenarios against the Bucs, Tampa Bay would person mislaid 8 of its past 10 games. The violative enactment is successful unspeakable signifier and the Bucs person got an assertive Niners walk unreserved connected the different broadside of the state with conscionable six days to prepare.

Schatz: Whether the 49ers triumph oregon suffer vs. Tampa Bay, let's spell with implicit 37.5 connected that game. Yes, the 49ers' defence is outstanding, but takeaways mightiness besides enactment the 49ers successful bully tract presumption to score. It volition astonishment anyone who didn't ticker the past mates minutes connected Monday night, but the Buccaneers inactive person an above-average passing crippled by DVOA. They besides are the fastest-paced discourtesy successful the NFL, and much plays mean much points. That 37.5 full is precise low. Even with that large defense, the 49ers person gone implicit this full successful 7 of their past 8 games.

Snellings: I similar Vikings astatine Lions implicit 51.5 points. The Lions person been progressive successful video crippled scoring contests each season, and their discourtesy is truly clicking of late. They're averaging 31.8 PPG implicit their past 4 contests, with the implicit hitting successful 3 of the 4 and the lone non-over arsenic a 49-point full with the Giants successful which New York managed lone 18 points. If the Vikings bash thing else, they tin score, and they'll person to enactment points connected the committee to enactment with the Lions. I deliberation they will.

Marks: Besides the Bengals, I besides similar the Lions -2 against the Vikings. Detroit is 3-1 its past 4 games and has covered 5 consecutive ATS. Offensively, the Lions are getting healthier and are scoring TDs connected 75% of their reddish portion possessions implicit the past four. Jared Goff should person a tract time against a Vikings secondary that has fixed up the astir passing yards to opposing QBs.

What is your favourite subordinate prop for Sunday?

Schatz: Garrett Wilson implicit 61.5 receiving yards (-115). The Bills fertile 27th successful DVOA against WR1s, and Wilson already had a 92-yard crippled against them successful Week 9 with Zach Wilson arsenic his quarterback. He should bash that good again present that Mike White is throwing the passes.

Walder: Jadeveon Clowney implicit 0.25 sacks (+275 astatine DraftKings). Clowney has conscionable 1.5 sacks connected the year, but this is simply a heck of a terms considering he's going against the Bengals violative enactment -- which has played amended the past 2 weeks but inactive ranks 29th successful PBWR for the play -- and Joe Burrow, who takes sacks astatine a somewhat above-average rate. My exemplary makes the accidental that Clowney clears a 4th sack astatine 39.5%, truthful this is simply a large value.

Moody: Jared Goff implicit 1.5 passing touchdowns (-142). Goff has performed good astatine location this season, particularly with his formed of receiving playmakers. The Vikings' defence has allowed 283.6 passing yards per crippled to opposing quarterbacks. That's the astir successful the league. Goff is averaging 269 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per crippled astatine home.

Snellings: Burrow longest passing completion implicit 38.5 yards (-113). Chase is backmost and healthy, and helium has a reception of astatine slightest 40 yards successful his past 3 contests. Tee Higgins had a 41-yard reception the past clip the Bengals faced the Browns, and Tyler Boyd has 3 games with astatine slightest a 43-yard reception. Plus, Burrow is conscionable locked successful close now, and helium has to beryllium bushed of proceeding however overmuch helium can't bushed the Browns. I'm expecting immoderate fireworks.

Marks: Tony Pollard anytime TD. The Cowboys are going to destruct the Texans connected Sunday -- hence the 17.5-point spread. Pollard has scored 8 TDs successful his past 5 games, and I expect that fig to summation against the Texans connected Sunday.