6:30 PM ET
ESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts
Week 12 gives america a trio of Thanksgiving Day games to beryllium thankful for, and past erstwhile everyone is recovered from turkey and stuffing, we get a slate of Sunday games that includes respective intriguing matchups, including the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Tennessee Titans and capped disconnected by the nighttime crippled betwixt the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.
What is worthy looking astatine from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder; and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their penetration into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.
After a turnaround triumph past Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) are dense favorites implicit the Detroit Lions for their Thanksgiving Day matchup. The Lions are 6-4 ATS and 4 of their 5 location games person gone implicit the total. What are your thoughts connected this crippled and who bash you like?
Fortenbaugh: I'm playing nether 54.5 full points. Sure, the Lions person scored 31 points successful each of their past 2 games, but that came against the Bears and Giants. This is simply a measurement up successful people against a Buffalo defence that ranks 5th successful scoring. By the way, adjacent with those 2 caller performances by the Lions, Detroit is inactive averaging conscionable 18 points per crippled implicit its past six outings. The Bills should person nary occupation moving the shot present and should beryllium encouraged to bash truthful to instrumentality immoderate of the value disconnected of Josh Allen's ailing elbow.
Schatz: Here's different ballot for playing the under. We wage truthful overmuch attraction to Allen that sometimes we neglect to recognize however beardown the Bills defence is. Buffalo is presently 3rd successful antiaircraft DVOA down New England and Dallas. Meanwhile, the Lions defence has really been supra average, 11th successful DVOA, since their Week 6 bye. These are 2 bully offenses arsenic well, but that 54.5 is simply a precise precocious fig considering the prime of the defenses involved.
Moody: The Lions haven't had galore wins connected Thanksgiving Day successful caller years and I expect that inclination to proceed against the Bills. However, I bash expect the Lions to support this person than the dispersed suggests. Detroit is 7-2 ATS successful its past 9 location games. The Lions would beryllium omniscient to thin connected their moving crippled successful this matchup. Over the past 3 games, the Bills person allowed the 13th astir rushing yards per game. The Lions are connected a three-game winning streak and playing their champion shot truthful acold this play connected some sides of the ball, and I expect to spot that inclination to proceed Thursday.
Marks: The Lions are playing precise hard for Dan Campbell and person won 3 consecutive games (Packers, Bears, Giants). They person been outgained successful yardage but are victorious due to the fact that they triumph the turnover battle. The Bills mean much turnovers per crippled than immoderate squad successful the NFL. Detroit is amended successful some trenches. I similar the Lions getting the 9.5 and volition usage them successful my Thanksgiving Day 3-team teaser (+15.5).
Snellings: Lions +9.5, implicit 54.5 points. I'm aged capable to retrieve erstwhile the Lions were expected to beryllium a definite happening connected Thanksgiving. They haven't been that successful awhile, but quietly, these Lions person been awesome of late. They've won 3 consecutive outright implicit coagulated competition, and successful the crippled earlier they went toe-to-toe with a Tua-led Dolphins squad that's fundamentally undefeated this season. Playing astatine home, against a Bills squad with issues, I deliberation the Lions cover. And I'll spell implicit due to the fact that I inactive don't spot the Lions defence and deliberation Allen volition person to enactment immoderate points connected the committee to bushed them.
The Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 45.5) are looking for their 5th consecutive location triumph and invited the New York Giants to AT&T Stadium connected Thanksgiving Day. The Giants are 2-9 ATS successful their past 11 meetings against Dallas, portion the Cowboys are 22-8 ATS successful their past 30 games against NFC East opponents. Can the Giants propulsion disconnected the upset connected a abbreviated week oregon volition Dak Prescott and America's Team support rolling?
Schatz: I've been driving the "Giants are overrated" bandwagon since aboriginal successful the play and I'm not going to halt now. Dallas should triumph this game. But that enactment of 9.5 is truly large and honestly not worthy playing. One reason: the Cowboys are amended connected defence than discourtesy and the Giants are worse connected defence than offense. But we besides cognize discourtesy is much predictive than defense, and truthful we request to see it much erstwhile considering aboriginal lines. In fact, if this enactment went to 10 I would adjacent play the Giants arsenic an underdog.
Moody: I'm backing the Cowboys. Dallas bounced backmost nicely from their overtime nonaccomplishment astatine Green Bay by dismantling the Vikings. Tony Pollard's emergence has travel astatine a large clip for the Cowboys and helium present faces a Giants defence that ranks 28th successful run-stop triumph rate. Dallas is 9-2 against the dispersed successful its past 11 matchups against the Giants, and New York has mislaid its past 5 games astatine AT&T Stadium.
Marks: The Giants are injury-riddled and hardly person lukewarm bodies to tract a team. They volition beryllium starting their 4th and 5th starting corners. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb should feast connected this Giants defense. A bug has ravaged the Giants for the past 2 weeks -- galore players were affected past week against the Lions and present those that missed the archetypal question are sick this week. I wouldn't beryllium amazed with a 31-13 beatdown, truthful I'll laic the points with Dallas (-9.5) and besides see them successful my teaser (-3.5).
Snellings: Over 45.5. The Cowboys are truthful Jekyll and Hyde close present that I don't consciousness comfy with giving the 9.5 points. But Anita's constituent is good received that the Giants' defence is struggling close now, and they conscionable gave up 31 points to the Lions past week. The Cowboys should enactment a large fig connected the committee this week, truthful I'll play the over.
0:39
Ryan Clark previews the Patriots' matchup vs. the Vikings connected Thursday night.
In the past crippled of the day, the New England Patriots, caller disconnected a choky part triumph implicit the Jets, look the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5), who suffered their archetypal location nonaccomplishment of the play past Sunday. Are oddsmakers overlooking New England oregon bash you expect Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and the Vikings to bounce backmost Thursday night?
Fulghum: The determination disconnected of the cardinal fig of 3 is peculiar to me, but I volition not beryllium deterred. I similar the Vikings successful this spot mostly due to the fact that I cannot spot their discourtesy to supply capable points successful this situation to screen a fig little than a FG. Mac Jones has regressed tremendously this year. The Joe Judge+Matt Patricia experimentation is predictably unimpressive. Teams with explosive quality done the aerial tin springiness the Vikings problems, but that surely is not New England. It's imaginable Kirk Cousins plays arsenic poorly arsenic Jones successful this matchup -- particularly since the crippled is successful premier clip -- but arsenic unusual arsenic it whitethorn dependable to say, I spot Cousins much than Jones. Vikings -2.5.
Fortenbaugh: Under 42.5 is wherever you'll find me. New England's discourtesy stinks, but its defence has been fantastic. I'm betting Bill Belichick sells retired against the Minnesota passing onslaught successful an effort to bounds the Vikings' large plays, which means Dalvin Cook should beryllium successful for a bully crippled connected the ground.
Schatz: The Vikings are the archetypal 8-2 squad to ever person a antagonistic constituent differential, and they're the worst 8-2 squad ever according to our DVOA ratings. They aren't arsenic atrocious arsenic they looked successful a 40-3 nonaccomplishment past week, but they're conscionable precise mediocre each around, somewhat beneath mean successful DVOA for each 3 phases. Obviously, the Patriots are driven by defence and defence is harder to foretell than offense, but a mates of splits that constituent retired however they'll dilatory down the Vikings: the Patriots are 4th successful the league against No. 1 wide receivers and 5th against choky ends. Even successful Minnesota, I'll instrumentality the Patriots and the points. Patriots +2.5.
Moody: I similar the Patriots. The Vikings defence is allowing the fourth-most full yards per crippled to opponents. Edge rusher Matthew Judon and the Patriots defence should beryllium capable to unit Cousins, particularly with near tackle Christian Darrisaw out. The Patriots are 9-4 against the dispersed successful their past 13 games pursuing a straight-up win. Furthermore, New England is 4-1 against the dispersed successful its past 5 Thursday games. It is good known that Cousins struggles successful premier clip games.
Marks: This Patriots defence is sick, ranking 2nd successful points allowed, yards allowed, unit complaint and sacks. The Vikings showed however susceptible they are against a large walk unreserved (Cousins was sacked 7 times). Cousins volition present beryllium without starting LT Darrisaw against the Patriots and Matt Judon -- bully luck with that! My play is nether 42.5, and I volition implicit my teaser with the Patriots +8.5.
What is your favourite stake for Thanksgiving
Fulghum: The Giants are a 9.5-point roadworthy underdog against the Cowboys. That's the benignant of expected antagonistic crippled publication that whitethorn person them dropping backmost a batch successful the 2nd fractional to play catch-up. The lone problem? They don't truly person immoderate wide receivers disposable to drawback the shot astatine the infinitesimal different than Darius Slayton. Rookie WR Wan'Dale Robinson tore his ACL successful the Week 11 nonaccomplishment to Detroit, and Richie James is dealing with a genu wounded that whitethorn interaction his availability. Slayton has been the lone reliable walk catcher connected the perimeter for this team. He's had 58-plus receiving yards successful 5 of his past six games. Slayton should spot plentifulness of enactment from Daniel Jones connected Thursday, particularly if the Giants are playing from down arsenic expected. Slayton implicit 46.5 receiving yards.
What is your favourite subordinate prop for Thanksgiving?
Walder: Von Miller nether 0.25 sacks (+110 astatine DraftKings). I cognize it doesn't feel great, and Miller has recorded a sack successful six of 10 games this year, but I've got this arsenic a value. The large crushed why? Jared Goff. For each the Lions' problems, Goff taking sacks isn't 1 of them. His 4.3% sack complaint is sixth-lowest successful the league.
Schatz: I noted supra that the Patriots are precocious successful DVOA against No. 1 receivers and choky ends. So who volition Kirk Cousins propulsion to? I'm betting we spot a bully magnitude of Adam Thielen successful this game. His enactment is 44.5 receiving yards, and Thielen has topped that successful 3 of the past 4 games arsenic good arsenic six of the 10 games this year. Let's spell with Thielen implicit 44.5 receiving yards (-117).
Moody: Tony Pollard implicit 67.5 rushing yards. Pollard has averaged 108.6 rushing yards per crippled implicit the past 3 games and has six rushing attempts of 15 oregon much yards implicit that span. The Giants defence has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per crippled this season.
Marks: Matt Breida implicit 10.5 rushing yards (-120). A fig of Giants players are dealing with an unwellness that has ravaged the locker country the past 2 weeks, and Saquon Barkley whitethorn beryllium dealing with thing this week. We are besides astatine astir the clip of the play wherever load absorption is important for teams looking guardant to the postseason. Breida has exceeded 10 rushing yards successful 5 of his past 7 games.
Despite a 7-3 grounds and multi-game pb successful the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans are 1.5-point underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals successful Week 12. What are your thoughts connected this line? Are oddsmakers disrespecting the Titans oregon volition Cincinnati travel distant with its 5th triumph successful six games connected Sunday
Fulghum: Oddsmakers are disrespecting the Titans and Mike Vrabel, much notably. Tennessee volition person the remainder vantage coming disconnected its Week 11 Thursday nighttime triumph astatine Green Bay. Vrabel and Derrick Henry person dominated successful this spot. Tennessee is simply a precise unrecorded "underdog."
Fortenbaugh: My favourite betting inclination successful each of shot is this: Since taking implicit arsenic caput manager of the Titans successful 2018, Vrabel has had astatine slightest 10 days of mentation for 8 regular-season games. In those 8 games, Vrabel is 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS and beating the closing constituent dispersed by an average of 17.5 points per game! I deliberation that tells you each you request to cognize astir wherever my wealth volition beryllium for this one.
Schatz: Our DVOA ratings person these teams precise adjacent together, with the Bengals presently 10th and the Titans 12th. But that includes 2 Malik Willis games. Take those retired of the Titans discourtesy and the Titans would person the higher standing betwixt the 2 teams. In addition, the Titans' walk defence has truly been playing good since their Week 6 bye, 5th successful the league successful DVOA successful the past 5 weeks. So I'll instrumentality the Titans present arsenic flimsy underdogs.
Snellings: The Titans person been disrespected each season, afloat stop. They are a precise bully squad and should beryllium treated arsenic such. With that said, the Bengals person been astir arsenic overlooked, peculiarly aft their 0-2 start. But erstwhile steadfast this season, the Bengals person won astatine a amended complaint than past season's Super Bowl squad and could beryllium getting Ja'Marr Chase backmost Sunday. These 2 teams besides person history, with the Bengals beating the No. 1-seeded Titans successful Tennessee during past season's playoffs. I deliberation the dispersed is tenable successful what should beryllium a heavyweight conflict connected Sunday. The much absorbing play, to me, is implicit 42.5 points. The Titans person a beardown defense, but the Bengals should enactment points connected the board. The Bengals' antiaircraft weakness has been connected the ground, and Derrick Henry should eat. I deliberation this 1 goes over, comfortably.
1:01
Field Yates names Antonio Gibson arsenic the preferred Commanders moving backmost successful phantasy implicit Brian Robinson Jr..
The Washington Commanders, winners of 5 of their past six games, are 4.5-point favorites implicit the Atlanta Falcons, who beryllium conscionable a half-game backmost of the Buccaneers successful the NFC South. Atlanta started the play 6-0 ATS but person failed to screen successful 4 consecutive games and hardly covered against the Bears past week. Meanwhile, the Commanders are 3-0 SU successful games which they are favored this season. Can Taylor Heinicke support the Commanders blistery this weekend, oregon volition Atlanta propulsion disconnected a astonishment victory?
Fortenbaugh: Love the Commanders here. Atlanta wants to tally the football. Too atrocious for them Washington excels astatine stopping the run, ranking 2nd successful Football Outsiders' unreserved DVOA metric. If not for a precocious interception, Washington would participate this matchup riding a six-game winning streak. There's a bully lawsuit to beryllium made that Washington is the astir underrated squad successful the NFL close now.
Moody: Commanders -4.5. Mr. Fortenbaugh and I look to beryllium connected the aforesaid page. It is apt that the Commanders defence tin unit the Falcons discourtesy retired of their comfortableness zone, which is moving the ball. Atlanta ranks 4th successful the league with 32.8 rushing attempts per game. The Commanders fertile ninth successful run-stop triumph rate. It volition beryllium an intriguing crippled arsenic the Commanders and Falcons jockey for playoff position. Washington is 18-7-1 against the dispersed successful its past 26 games pursuing a consecutive up win.
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What are the astir important things our analytics say?
Walder: There are 3 games for which the FPI disagrees with the betting market.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 47.5) astatine Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
FPI prediction: Cardinals by 3.9
FPI is assuming Kyler Murray plays here, which is portion of wherefore there's a monolithic disagreement with the marketplace -- due to the fact that Murray's presumption is not genuinely certain. But what this enactment is telling america is that the exemplary believes the Cardinals are amended than the Chargers connected a neutral tract with Murray astatine QB. Which is possibly a blistery take! But it besides not that crazy. The Chargers person been been amended successful EPA/P connected discourtesy by 0.02 and worse connected defence by 0.03. But the Chargers person besides played the easier schedule.
New York Giants astatine Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 45.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
FPI prediction: Cowboys by 13.9
The exemplary is afloat buying the Cowboys aft their 40-3 dismantling of the Vikings and present sees Dallas arsenic a existent Super Bowl contender. It has ne'er bought successful connected the Giants, who person had a grounds supra their endowment level each year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 43) astatine Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
FPI prediction: Buccaneers by 0.5
The Browns defence has been atrocious. That has outgo them wins, but it has besides hidden conscionable however effectual the discourtesy has been with Jacoby Brissett nether center. Cleveland ranks sixth successful EPA per play acknowledgment to an fantabulous crushed crippled and an supra mean passing onslaught successful presumption of efficiency. Brissett ranks sixth (sixth!) successful QBR. All of this is to accidental -- the Browns are amended than their record.
2:44
Field Yates previews a fewer matchups from Thanksgiving play including: Bills vs. Lions, Texans vs. Dolphins and the Steelers vs. Colts.
What is your favourite stake for Sunday?
Fulghum: My favourite stake is banking connected the Miami Dolphins to people a batch of points astatine location against the Houston Texans. Not lone is Houston's defence not that good, particularly against the run, it's compounded by the information that the Texans discourtesy is Dameon Pierce and a clump of nothing. If he's not churning retired yards, past the absorption is apt to get a batch of possessions and successful bully tract position. Mike McDaniel should beryllium capable to strategy circles astir this defence connected the crushed and done the air. Dolphins squad full implicit 29.5.
Fortenbaugh: Commanders -4.5 implicit Falcons for each the reasons I listed above.
Schatz: Let's spell with implicit 43 arsenic the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sojourn the Cleveland Browns connected Sunday. A hard docket of opposing defenses has helped fell conscionable however businesslike the Browns discourtesy has been this year. The Browns presently fertile 4th successful DVOA! Honestly, I'm not definite however they get amended erstwhile they get Deshaun Watson backmost due to the fact that things are already going truthful well. The Buccaneers person wide been a precise mean offense, but a amended passing crippled and the moving crippled mightiness beryllium resuscitated successful portion by replacing Leonard Fournette arsenic the starter with Rachaad White. Plus, the Buccaneers are the fastest-paced discourtesy successful the NFL this twelvemonth erstwhile you look astatine however overmuch crippled clip goes betwixt plays. More plays means much points.
Moody: Chiefs -14.5. The Chiefs discourtesy has been a juggernaut each season, ranking archetypal successful full yards per crippled and points per game. With an 8-2 record, Kansas City is anxious to marque a connection successful the postseason, portion the Rams are fundamentally retired of the playoff contention astatine 3-7. Los Angeles is without Cooper Kupp, and present Matthew Stafford is successful the league's concussion protocol. It's a large number, but I'd beryllium amazed if the Chiefs played down to their hostile successful this matchup.
Snellings: Dolphins -13.5 implicit Texans. The Dolphins tin people astatine volition erstwhile healthy, and they are afloat loaded close now. Their moving backmost country has been thriving arsenic good since Jeff Wilson came to town, and I expect them to gash the Texans some connected the crushed and done the air. Meanwhile, the Texans person averaged lone 17.7 PPG successful their past 4 outings, and I conscionable don't spot wherever they person the weapons to support up with the Dolphins connected Sunday.
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