6:48 PM ET
Liz LozaESPN
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Last week was a spot of a letdown. How did Green Bay AND Tampa Bay autumn successful specified monolithic upsets? That's the crippled though. Thankfully, George Kittle and J.K. Dobbins paid off.
Let's determination to amended successful Week 7! Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and immoderate assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I'm present to assistance you triumph successful phantasy and astatine the books.
New York Giants astatine Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 43)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Pick: Trevor Lawrence implicit 15.5 unreserved yards (-117)
Struggling marquee QBs (a la Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady) person dominated phantasy headlines. The hand-wringing lone figures to turn with 3 of FF's apical 10 producers (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins) each connected bye. While Trevor Lawrence has disappointed for 3 consecutive efforts, he's successful enactment for sneaky accumulation ... adjacent against a white-hot Giants squad.
Jacksonville's backfield has leveled retired implicit the past 2 weeks. As Travis Etienne's snaps person increased, truthful has Lawrence's rushing accumulation (he's gone implicit 20 rushing yards successful back-to-back efforts). That's due to the fact that Etienne's versatility stretches the tract and pulls defenders distant from the backfield, allowing Lawrence to beforehand the shot with his legs.
No 1 loves a blitz similar Wink Martindale. Lawrence has, frankincense far, handled specified unit well, managing a top-six completion percent (67.3%) erstwhile blitzed. Hooray for bully decisions! Assuming the Giants bring the vigor and simultaneously relationship for the Jaguars' pass-catching threats, Lawrence has the know-how and mobility to successfully trust connected his legs. Both Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson managed 5 rushing attempts for implicit 45 rushing yards erstwhile blitzed by the Giants. It's a bully recipe!
It seems arsenic though Doug Pederson is funny successful utilizing Lawrence's sneaky athleticism. It whitethorn not triumph Jacksonville the crippled connected Sunday, but it should assistance Duval's QB negociate low-end QB1 numbers successful Week 7.
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Atlanta Falcons astatine Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Pick: Marcus Mariota implicit 0.5 INTs (-103)
Mike Zimmer exits the league and Arthur Smith fills his run-loving loafers. Marcus Mariota has 3 much passing scores (6) than helium does rushing TDs (3) and the aforesaid fig of INTs (4) arsenic Josh Allen (but 102 less walk attempts).
The ground-and-pound look mightiness person led to a Week 6 upset implicit San Francisco, but there's nary mode Atlanta is coming distant with a W astatine Cincy without Mariota putting the shot successful the air. Team QBs facing the Bengals person each cleared 30 walk attempts (with the objection of Joe Flacco successful Week 3, who recorded 28 walk attempts successful a 27-12 loss) careless of a triumph oregon a loss. The Falcons are 6.5-point underdogs. Mariota amended commencement warming up his shoulder.
Since 2019, QBs are astir 37% much apt (per pass) to propulsion an INT erstwhile trailing than erstwhile leading. Mariota is not immune to the trend, arsenic helium has recorded 12 INTs successful the 12 games successful which he's mislaid and had to lob much than 25 passes. Additionally, Mariota has thrown a prime successful each of the past 3 games successful which his defence allowed implicit 21 points. The Bengals person an implied full of 27 points.
All of that bodes good for the Bengals defence (ranked sixth per ESPN consensus), Cincy's likelihood of covering and the implicit connected the supra prop.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 41.5) astatine Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. implicit 13.5 carries (+106)
Field Yates and I lamented the Commanders backfield connected the Fantasy Focus Football Podcast earlier successful the week, admitting that the RBs were hard to rank. That gnawed astatine me. So I did immoderate digging, and I deliberation Robinson is the favourite to pb the group. I decided to determination him inside my apical 30, with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic much than 10 spots behind.
Robinson debuted successful Week 5, signaling a drawback stock of 27.6% and 9 carries. Those numbers astir doubled 4 days aboriginal successful a premier clip slog astatine Chicago (48.1% drawback share, 17 carries). Consequently, Gibson's drawback stock dropped from 32.8% successful Week 4 to a season-low 27.8% successful Week 5. The Memphis merchandise has carried the stone a full of 8 times (no reddish portion touches) implicit his past 2 outings portion drafting 4 looks successful consecutive efforts. Robinson is intelligibly the guy. In fact, helium was the lone backmost to interaction the shot successful the archetypal 4th of past Thursday's showing. His attempts additionally made up 7 of the team's 10 rushes successful the archetypal half.
Game publication doesn't heavy favour Robinson, arsenic the Commanders are 4.5-point underdogs. However, the Packers are the sixth astir run-on defence successful the league, arsenic opposing backfields are averaging 22.6 rushing attempts per contention erstwhile facing Green Bay. Given the divided betwixt Robinson and Gibson (McKissic has managed conscionable 2 totes since Robinson entered the equation), the rookie should wide the supra enactment and station upwards of 15 carries.
1:30
Liz Loza hopes Kareem Hunt tin get his play backmost connected way with favorable lucifer up vs. the Ravens.
Cleveland Browns astatine Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Pick: Kareem Hunt implicit 35.5 unreserved yards (-117)
The Browns backfield hasn't been messy implicit the people of 2022, but it was past Sunday. One atrocious showing is capable to marque phantasy managers panic. But I'm not terribly concerned. Nick Chubb remains a top-10 enactment portion Kareem Hunt figures to instrumentality to flex form. Cleveland's violative crippled program is evident, and the information soundly suggests a moving backmost rebound. I've gotten much questions astir Hunt, truthful that's the backmost I'm focusing connected here.
Hunt cleared 45 rushing yards implicit the archetypal 5 games of the play earlier hitting a partition past Sunday versus the Patriots. Chasing a 23-point shortage evidently constricted Hunt's chances of touching the ball. Game publication could spell sideways again astatine Baltimore, but I don't deliberation it will. There's nary mode the Browns don't play keep-away against a part rival helmed by Lamar Jackson. In fact, adjacent accounting for past week's dud, Cleveland ranks 2nd successful clip of possession connected the year.
Furthermore, the Ravens are a known hostile and the Browns traditionally play them tight. In Cleveland's past 10 divisional games, 7 person been decided by six oregon less points. And the Browns really won 2 of the 3 remaining one-sided affairs. This doesn't figue to beryllium a blowout, which should construe into meaningful touches for Hunt.
The matchup isn't arsenic scary arsenic you mightiness initially believe, either. The Ravens are fantabulous astatine limiting yards per transportation connected archetypal down (4.0 yards). On 2nd and 3rd downs, however, Baltimore eases up, allowing 5.7 yards per carry. Coincidentally, the bulk of Hunt's attempts travel connected 2nd and 3rd downs (34.7%), expanding his likelihood of chunk gains.
This 1 hits similar that kombucha meme. Prepare for the Browns backfield to bounce back.
Houston Texans astatine Las Vegas Raiders (-7, 45.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Pick: Davante Adams implicit 81.5 receiving yards (-125)
This feels high, particularly connected the heels of a season-low 7 targets successful Week 5. Yet Adams has gone implicit 100 yards successful 3 of the Raiders' 5 outings this season. Coming disconnected a bye -- and astir apt aggravated astir a fewer things -- Adams should roll. He's my WR3 for the week and I'm projecting a 7-90-1 stat line.
The Texans person been generous to opposing wideouts, allowing 4 WRs to transverse 100 yards successful 5 games. That database includes Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman, Mike Williams and Marvin Jones. I mean, if Marvin Jones tin bash it past let's spell Davante! It's besides worthy mentioning that Houston struggles to support heavy looks, allowing the ninth-highest completion percent connected balls thrown implicit 20 yards.
You cognize who's large astatine coming down with heavy shots? You guessed it.
Additionally, Adams is averaging 10.6 looks per contention (including the aforementioned Week 5) portion managing a career-high aDOT (11.5). The information that he's besides the No. 1 ranked receiver successful reddish portion targets (13) and No. 2 successful full TDs (5) doesn't straight assistance this peculiar prop, but it mightiness promote you to see immoderate SGP action.
Follow Liz connected Twitter @LizLoza_FF
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