NFL MVP watch: Ranking top five candidates, plus under-the-radar stars to watch

Six weeks into the 2022 NFL season, the league's Most Valuable Player contention is starting to travel together, highlighted by a big of quarterbacks emerging arsenic candidates. The person of the AFC's lone one-loss squad owns the champion Vegas likelihood and the astir first-place votes from our panel, portion the QB of the NFL's lone remaining undefeated squad has skyrocketed done the archetypal 3rd of the season. Those jockeying for the frontrunner spot person 12 much weeks to marque their case.

We asked a radical of analysts -- Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Matt Miller, Sal Paolantonio, Jason Reid, Mike Tannenbaum, Seth Walder and Field Yates -- to ballot connected the apical players successful the MVP contention close now. Then we utilized those 12 sets of rankings to springiness our apical 5 candidates, utilizing Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking to find however the tract stacks up.

We'll besides look astatine a fewer names who person seen their MVP banal either spike oregon plummet successful the aboriginal going, and ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder besides weighed successful connected an under-the-radar MVP-caliber player. Here's a look astatine wherever things basal aft six weeks.

Note: All likelihood are via Caesars Sportsbook.

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Under-the-radar

1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

2022 stats: 1,980 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 75.4 QBR (257 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Current odds: +125

Early play returns uncover an undisputed truth: Allen is the champion backmost successful the NFL, an grant helium began wrestling distant from apical AFC rival Patrick Mahomes successful past year's playoffs. Allen entered the play with the champion likelihood to triumph the MVP and strengthened his lawsuit against the Kansas City Chiefs successful Week 6 by outdueling Mahomes successful a 24-20 thriller, which helium capped disconnected by starring a 76-yard, come-from-behind scoring thrust with a small much than a infinitesimal remaining.

That was the 2nd game-winning thrust he's led the Bills connected this period (the different was successful a 23-20 triumph implicit the Baltimore Ravens) and his archetypal fourth-quarter comeback since Sept. 27, 2020. Allen is the archetypal starting backmost to bushed Mahomes doubly astatine Arrowhead Stadium. He leads the league successful passing (both successful yards and yards per game) and his 753 passing yards implicit the past 2 games are the astir successful a two-game span successful Bills franchise history.

2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

2022 stats: 1,514 passing yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 59.6 QBR (293 rushing yards, 6 TDs)
Current odds: +450

Hurts' ascension -- wherever he's seen immense betterment successful areas specified arsenic completion percent (66.8%, ranked ninth), passer standing (98.4, fifth), mean merchandise clip (2.76) and yards per effort (8.2, second) -- has Philadelphia disconnected to its archetypal 6-0 commencement since 2004. The 24-year-old QB has won 9 games successful a enactment dating to 2021, tied for the longest triumph streak by an Eagles starting backmost successful 22 years, and helium is the 5th subordinate successful league past to walk for 1,500 yards and unreserved for 250 done his team's archetypal six games.

The Eagles boast the astir violative equilibrium of immoderate squad successful the NFC (394.5 yards per game, ranked third; 26.8 points per game, fourth) with a dependable tally crippled and explosive passing attack. Hurts has played a large relation successful what the Eagles are doing connected the ground, with 11 much carries connected designed runs (38) than immoderate different backmost and 16 of those coming successful the reddish zone, according to Next Gen Stats. He's besides completing a career-high plus-2.7% of his passes implicit expectation, the 3rd highest successful the NFL.

3. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

2022 stats: 1,736 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 74.2 QBR (113 rushing yards)
Current odds: +500

A batch was made astir however the Chiefs discourtesy would relation without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. His lack has forced Mahomes to dispersed the shot astir and go a much efficient, diligent passer. Through six games, Mahomes and Allen are tied for archetypal with 17 touchdown passes. Mahomes continues to beryllium incredibly effectual erstwhile nether pressure, ranking archetypal successful touchdowns per walk effort and 3rd successful archetypal downs per walk attempt, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

But the unit helium faced precocious successful Week 6 determined the result for the Chiefs. Against the Bills, Mahomes accounted for 92% of Kansas City's discourtesy erstwhile helium threw for 338 yards, 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and completed 63% of his passes. While Allen led Buffalo connected a touchdown thrust to instrumentality the pb late, Mahomes responded by throwing an interception portion nether duress, his 3rd prime connected a game-winning thrust effort dating to past year's AFC Championship game.

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

2022 stats: 1,277 passing yards, 13 TDs, 6 INTs, 64.1 QBR (451 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Current odds: +850

Jackson's MVP candidacy is connected clasp -- for present -- aft a blistery start. He ranks 3rd successful touchdown passes and leads each players successful yards per unreserved (8.1) and yards earlier interaction per unreserved (6.3), becoming the archetypal subordinate to beryllium apical 5 successful some categories done the archetypal six weeks of the play since the NFL-AFL merger, according to Elias.

Jackson is astatine his strongest aboriginal successful games, with 12 of his 13 touchdown passes coming successful the archetypal 3 quarters. On the flip side, 4 of his six interceptions person occurred successful the 4th quarter. His QBR successful the archetypal 3 quarters is amended than chap MVP campaigner Hurts, but his QBR successful the 4th fourth is worse than Chicago Bears backmost Justin Fields.

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2:06

Marcus Spears discusses Lamar Jackson's fourth-quarter struggles and however helium tin hole them.

5. Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys

2022 stats: 6 sacks, 26 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 2 passes defended
Current odds: +12500

A backmost oregon moving backmost has won the MVP each twelvemonth since 1987, but Parsons deserves information aft a beardown commencement to the season, arsenic helium is tied for archetypal successful full pressures (31) and 2nd successful sacks. Aside from a 26-17 nonaccomplishment to the Eagles wherever Parsons was mostly contained, Dallas has won games this play owed to a ascendant defense. The Cowboys went 4-1 during a agelong wherever backmost Dak Prescott was injured acknowledgment successful ample portion to the defense, which leads the league successful sacks (24) and is 3rd successful points allowed (98).

Just missed

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)

Herbert acceptable a grounds for the astir passes thrown (57) without a touchdown successful the Chargers' 19-16 OT triumph implicit the Denver Broncos connected Monday, according to Elias. He's inactive successful the MVP speech acknowledgment to wherever helium ranks successful passing yards (fourth), touchdowns (sixth), interception percent (fifth), passing archetypal downs (eighth) and QBR (eighth), but he'll person to spell connected a tally implicit the adjacent 11 games to beryllium successful contention with the frontrunners.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+10000)

For the archetypal clip successful the Super Bowl era, the Giants person posted 4 upset wins successful their archetypal six games of a play successful ample portion owed to the individuality they've established with Barkley, who looks similar the champion moving backmost successful the league. He leads the NFL with 771 yards from scrimmage and his 4 touchdowns this play are 2 much than helium had successful the combined 15 games helium played successful 2020-21. At minimum, he's a beforehand runner for the NFL's comeback subordinate of the twelvemonth award.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+4000)

Cousins broke the Vikings' franchise grounds for consecutive completions erstwhile helium started 17-of-17 successful a Week 5 triumph implicit the Bears and followed that up by throwing for 2 touchdown passes successful a triumph implicit the Miami Dolphins. Coming disconnected his 3rd Pro Bowl season, the 34-year-old has yet to propulsion for 300 yards successful a crippled but his businesslike play has the Vikings disconnected to a 5-1 start.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (not listed)

Smith leads the NFL successful completion percent implicit anticipation (plus-9.6%), according to Next Gen Stats, and leads the NFL successful completion percent (73.4%) done six weeks. He's thrown for 1,502 yards and 9 touchdown passes, which ranks ninth and eighth, respectively, among qualified starting quarterbacks. The Seahawks would beryllium obscurity adjacent to a .500 grounds without Smith, which is wherefore the franchise should see him arsenic an enactment astatine QB beyond this season.

Also received top-10 votes: Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Bills OLB Von Miller, Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Browns RB Nick Chubb, Eagles CB James Bradberry, Rams DT Aaron Donald, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, Falcons QB Marcus Mariota, 49ers DE Nick Bosa, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Stock up

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow bounced backmost aft the Bengals got disconnected to an 0-2 start, and helium has completed much than 62% of his passes successful each of his archetypal six games. In a come-from-behind triumph implicit the New Orleans Saints, the Bengals' QB completed 28 of 37 passes for 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes and didn't crook the shot over. With Atlanta, Cleveland and Carolina coming up, Burrow could enactment his mode into the MVP mix.

Stock down

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is struggling to compensate for a diminished supporting cast. He had a full QBR of 17.0 successful a nonaccomplishment to the New York Jets, which was his 2nd worst of the play (10.8 vs. Minnesota Week 1). Last year's MVP has six turnovers done six games aft turning the shot implicit 4 times each of past season. He's mislaid 3 fumbles this play aft losing 2 successful the erstwhile 2 seasons combined.

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1:42

Field Yates breaks down Aaron Rodgers' dismal phantasy season.

Walder's under-the-radar MVP candidate

James Bradberry, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Bradberry is worthy of a top-10 MVP vote, successful my view. His nearest defender numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats are outrageous. Among extracurricular corners with 125 sum snaps Bradberry ranks:

• Second successful yards per sum drawback (0.5)

• First successful targeted EPA by a wide borderline (minus-25.8)

• Second successful completion percent implicit anticipation (minus-20%)

• First successful receptions allowed implicit anticipation (minus-8.0)

To enactment the 2nd fig successful context, the Bengals person recorded plus-28.7 EPA connected Joe Burrow dropbacks this play (I'm mixing betwixt NGS and ESPN EPA models present -- not ideal, but you get the point). To grounds a level of accumulation arsenic a country that's successful the aforesaid ballpark arsenic a higher-end QB is incredibly valuable. Yes, a clump of that was generated connected a deflection that helium turned into a pick-six disconnected Jared Goff but it was hardly a one-off; Bradberry has been superb the full year.