Niger coup: A litmus test for democracy in West Africa

President Bola Tinubu, who is astatine the helm of determination superpower Nigeria, regards the coup crossed the borderline successful Niger arsenic a litmus trial for ideology successful West Africa.

Having assumed the chairmanship of determination bloc Ecowas a specified 3 weeks ago, helium was confronted with a large overseas argumentation situation erstwhile the subject seized powerfulness successful neighbouring Niger - a strategical state successful the combat against militant Islamists wreaking havoc crossed overmuch of West Africa.

Mr Tinubu had raised concerns astir the coups successful Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea erstwhile helium roseate to Nigeria's presidency successful May, saying Ecowas needed to fortify its determination unit to forestall further coups, and to combat the militants.

So erstwhile Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown by his statesmanlike guards past week, helium responded swiftly by convening a acme of West African leaders astatine his statesmanlike villa connected Sunday.

The determination bloc gave an ultimatum to Niger's junta - manus backmost powerfulness to the elected president wrong a week oregon Ecowas would instrumentality "all measures indispensable to reconstruct law order".

"Such measures whitethorn see the usage of force" and subject chiefs were to conscionable "immediately", their connection added.

Though Mr Tinubu's ain triumph successful past year's statesmanlike predetermination is being challenged successful the courts by absorption candidates who assertion the effect was rigged, helium styles himself arsenic a politician who took portion successful the run against subject regularisation successful Nigeria successful the 1980s.

"I deliberation helium sees this [coup] arsenic an affront to his antiauthoritarian credentials, peculiarly astatine a clip that helium is holding the chairmanship of Ecowas," said Wole Ojewale, a Nigerian expert with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

More crucially, the coup has a nonstop bearing connected Nigeria. The 2 countries stock a borderline which stretches for much than 1,500km (930 miles), and they person beardown taste and commercialized ties that day backmost to the pre-colonial epoch erstwhile a chunk of some were portion of the Sokoto caliphate.

Their information is besides intertwined. Militant Islamist radical Boko Haram has carried retired attacks successful some countries, with a subject unit - made up of troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon - warring them. The force's "strategic and method partners" see the UK, US and France, with the second 2 having subject bases successful Niger.

While Niger accounted for astir 4% of planetary uranium output successful 2022, it is the world's seventh largest shaper of uranium and has the highest-grade uranium ore successful Africa.

Neither Ecowas nor its Western partners would privation the radioactive worldly - utilized successful some civilian and subject settings - to autumn into the incorrect hands successful a portion wherever militant Islamists are progressive and Russia and the Wagner mercenary radical are expanding their influence.

After their coups, Mali and Burkina Faso pivoted towards Russia, with the junta successful Niger giving the content that it could determination successful the aforesaid direction.

Chad's person Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno - who was enactment successful powerfulness by his ain service aft his begetter was killed by rebel forces successful 2021 - went to Niger connected Sunday to impulse the junta to heed Ecowas' ultimatum.

Chad is not a subordinate of the determination bloc, but Mr Déby attended its gathering earlier connected Sunday. As a subject strongman, helium was seen arsenic ideally placed to onslaught a rapport with the coup leaders and to impulse them to measurement down.

But the junta has truthful acold refused.

Instead, it has stepped up its rhetoric against some the West and Ecowas, and thousands of its supporters took to the streets of Niger's capital, Niamey, connected Sunday to backmost the coup. Some of them attacked the French embassy and waved pro-Russian flags.

But it is unclear whether the subject takeover has bulk enactment successful Niger - much than fractional of its citizens were satisfied with the mode ideology worked successful their country, according to a 2022 survey by respected probe radical Afrobarometer.

Only Tanzania, Zambia, Sierra Leone and Mauritania had a amended antiauthoritarian support of the 36 African countries surveyed.

However, two-thirds of those surveyed said that subject men could intervene erstwhile elected leaders abused power. This is an statement that those who equine coups, arsenic good arsenic their supporters, often marque successful bid to warrant their actions.

The juntas successful Mali and Burkina Faso person warned Ecowas against subject involution successful Niger, saying it would beryllium a "declaration of war" and they would spell to support their chap coup leaders. So subject involution risks snowballing into a full-scale conflict.

However, Ecowas has antecedently sent troops to galore countries - including Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia - either to assistance extremity civilian wars, reinstate deposed presidents oregon to unit retired leaders who refused to judge electoral defeat.

These interventions were successful accordance with its mandate to support "peace, stableness and information wrong the region", though its troops were besides accused successful immoderate instances of quality rights abuses.

Mr Ojewale is not definite whether the bloc has the subject capableness to intervene successful Niger - a immense arid state connected the borderline of the Sahara Desert - particularly erstwhile galore of the countries that marque it up, including Nigeria, are facing their ain information challenges.

"The small resources they person whitethorn beryllium stretched lean," helium said.

The expert believes that struggle betwixt 2 sides could go a "zero-sum game", and worsen the humanitarian situation successful the region.

"There would beryllium casualties arsenic determination would beryllium radical caught successful the crossfire," helium said, adding that a diplomatic solution to the situation would beryllium better.

There are besides questions astir the information of the ousted president, who is being held captive by the junta. Another analyst, Jaafar Abubakar, argues that helium could go a "bargaining chip" successful the lawsuit of subject confrontation betwixt Ecowas and the junta.

"It's successful [the junta's] champion involvement to support [Mr Bazoum] live and well," helium said. "If they termination him, they go all-out rebels with nary signifier of legitimacy."