Niger coup: Decision time for West Africa as deadline nears

As the seven-day ultimatum fixed by West African leaders for the subject successful Niger to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum draws to a close, some sides person important decisions to make.

Last Sunday evening, the determination bloc Ecowas, headed by President Bola Tinubu of neighbouring Nigeria, said the junta had a week to reconstruct law bid oregon look the imaginable usage of force.

Sanctions connected the coup leaders person already been imposed and energy supplies from Nigeria person been cut, on with borders, meaning goods are nary longer arriving and the land-locked state has mislaid entree to ports.

But arsenic the political, diplomatic and subject tensions rise, what could hap arsenic the deadline passes?

One enactment is for the Ecowas leaders to widen the deadline.

This has the information of being seen arsenic a climbdown, but the heads of authorities could prevention look by saying that diplomatic efforts person made advancement and they privation to springiness them much time.

The occupation astatine the infinitesimal is that Ecowas mediation efforts person not borne fruit. A delegation sent to Niger connected Thursday returned wrong a fewer hours with seemingly small to amusement for it.

Meanwhile, the junta stepped up its rhetoric against some the West and Ecowas. It announced that it was cutting diplomatic ties with Nigeria, Togo, the US and France, and said it was cancelling the subject agreements with France which allows the erstwhile assemblage powerfulness to basal immoderate 1,500 soldiers there.

And President Bazoum, who is being held by the military, used stark connection successful an nonfiction successful the Washington Post. He described himself arsenic a "hostage" and called connected the US and the full planetary assemblage to assistance reconstruct law order.

To effort and chill things down and find mediate ground, the junta and Ecowas could hold connected a timetable for a instrumentality to antiauthoritarian rule.

This could see the merchandise of President Bazoum, arsenic good arsenic different governmental detainees, successful bid to support talks going and perchance bargain much time. This has been a cardinal request of those who person condemned the coup successful Africa and elsewhere.

The West African bloc has already approved antiauthoritarian transitions successful Niger's neighbours successful the Sahel region, Mali and Burkina Faso, which were some taken implicit by the subject successful caller years.

But the negotiations were fraught with problems, with deadlines for elections continually pushed backmost and it is inactive not guaranteed that the handovers of powerfulness volition really happen.

Sudan, which created a mixed civilian-military authorities successful 2019 that was expected to pave the mode to ideology aft a coup there, provides different model. But the illness of that state into a bitter struggle betwixt rival subject leaders offers a cautionary tale.

The West African leaders did not accidental that unit would decidedly beryllium utilized if President Bazoum was not reinstated but near it unfastened arsenic a possibility.

Nigerian officials person described it arsenic a "last resort". President Tinubu said determination could beryllium a subject involution "to enforce compliance of the subject junta successful Niger should they stay recalcitrant".

Ecowas has utilized subject unit to reconstruct law bid successful the past, for illustration successful The Gambia successful 2017 erstwhile Yahya Jammeh refused to measurement down aft losing an election.

But the calculation astir whether to spell up this clip would beryllium acold much difficult.

Firstly, Niger is geographically the largest state successful West Africa, portion The Gambia is simply a tiny sliver of onshore surrounded by Senegal and the Atlantic Ocean, truthful sending troops successful would beryllium a full antithetic prospect.

Secondly, determination powerfulness Nigeria, which is starring the complaint to reconstruct President Bazoum, is facing a big of information challenges astatine home, truthful sending a important information of the service to Niger would beryllium thing of a gamble.

Thirdly, some Mali and Burkina Faso person said that subject involution successful Niger would beryllium seen arsenic a "declaration of war" and they would spell to support their chap coup leaders.

So it risks snowballing into a full-scale determination war, particularly if the Niger colonisation resists overseas intervention. Although it is intolerable to cognize however they would react.

Nigeria and Niger stock galore humanities and taste ties, with radical connected some sides speaking the aforesaid connection truthful this could marque immoderate Nigerian troops reluctant to combat if it came to that.

Countries similar Algeria, Niger's neighbour to the north, China and Russia person asked for restraint and the continued usage of dialog to douse tension.

However, aft a three-day gathering successful Nigeria's capital, Abuja, Ecowas defence chiefs accidental they person drawn up a elaborate program for subject involution for the determination leaders to consider.

Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin person each said they are consenting to nonstop troops into Niger if Ecowas decided to bash so.

Nigeria unsocial has astir 135,000 progressive troops, according to the Global Fire Power index, portion Niger has astir 10,000 but that surely doesn't mean an penetration would beryllium easy.

A peaceful solution is nary uncertainty preferable for each sides but Ecowas is keen to amusement its resoluteness arsenic it has failed to forestall a spate of coups successful the portion successful the past 3 years.