7:00 AM ET
ESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts
Week 7 of the 2022 NFL play is upon us, and determination are inactive respective questions astir which teams that person started accelerated are for existent and which struggling teams volition bounce back.
But what does this each mean from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks; phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder; and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their penetration into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.
What is your biggest betting storyline entering Week 6?
Kezirian: From a betting standpoint, the biggest storyline that inactive resonates with maine is however galore games are inactive cashing the under. We presently beryllium astatine 60.2%. After 2 weeks of unders hitting astatine a 68% clip, the marketplace reacted heavy to the league's little scoring and seemed to person righted the ship. But it truly hasn't. Half the league has backmost issues oregon cardinal violative injuries preventing teams from scoring astatine a tenable rate. Plus, a alteration successful antiaircraft coverages this play successful the reddish portion is preventing touchdowns. I bash not expect scoring to each of a abrupt increase. The question is whether the oddsmakers person adjusted appropriately.
The NBA play is here. Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today! Play for free
Marks: The Chiefs successful San Francisco is the champion crippled connected the slate. I similar Kansas City -2.5 and would leap connected it earlier it creeps up to -3. The 49ers' defence is dealing with injuries and allowed the Falcons to people 28 points connected them past week. San Fran plays portion sum 84% of the time, and Patrick Mahomes averages 9 yards per walk effort with a 79% completion percent against zone.
The 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey precocious Thursday night. What are your thoughts connected San Francisco's futures aft the move? (Div: +105 to -105, NFC +700 to +600, Super Bowl +1800 to +1400)
Kezirian: For me, Kyle Shanahan gets deference. He volition marque it work. This squad has been a small hit-or-miss this play but immoderate struggles came with Trey Lance and besides with George Kittle injured. I consciousness similar the ceiling is inactive beauteous precocious and yet they volition person a bully accidental to marque a heavy playoff run, particularly due to the fact that the accustomed NFC contenders person immoderate issues. Tampa Bay and Green Bay's struggles talk for themselves, portion the Eagles person surely entered the discussion. At +105, I would play San Francisco to triumph the division.
Walder: Can I stake against the 49ers to triumph the Super Bowl astatine 1-14? I get that Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey is simply a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, but I'm wary of an injury-prone seasoned moving backmost moving the needle that much, adjacent 1 arsenic bully astatine receiving arsenic McCaffrey.
Fulghum: I had already picked the 49ers to triumph the part and this lone strengthens that conviction. Obviously, they request immoderate amended wounded luck to interruption their mode successful December/January, but the apical extremity endowment connected this roster tin stack up with anybody else's successful the league. What is benignant of comic is that the Shanahan portion tally strategy does not necessitate elite level endowment astatine the RB presumption to beryllium wildly efficient. In fact, astir of the occurrence stories are players that were draught afterthoughts (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Raheem Mostert, Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson Jr.), but having idiosyncratic similar CMC to brace with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel cannot beryllium ignored. This squad tin bushed anyone successful the league connected immoderate fixed Sunday if they play their "A" game. I wouldn't responsibility anyone for betting them to triumph the NFC West, NFC, oregon the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs present invited the 49ers to GEHA Field connected Sunday and were lone a 2.5-point favourite connected Thursday. What are your thoughts connected this crippled (48.5 total) and which broadside would you take?
Schatz: I'm conscionable excessively frightened disconnected of the 49ers by the wounded bug. Talanoa Huganga, for example, has been hugely important to that defense, but present he's successful concussion protocol. Charvarius Ward is not practicing owed to a groin injury. Nick Bosa mightiness beryllium back, but volition helium beryllium 100%? If everyone was healthy, I could spot the 49ers slowing down Mahomes. The mode things are now, I don't. And portion the Chiefs defence is mediocre by DVOA, ranking lone 28th successful the league, immoderate of that has to bash with yardage fixed up erstwhile the Chiefs are starring big. The Chiefs person a inclination to fool our numbers due to the fact that they "shut it down" with a pb successful a mode different teams bash not. So springiness maine the Chiefs -2.5 here.
Fortenbaugh: I'm waiting for the +3 with San Francisco, but I'd besides play the Niners successful a 6-point teaser by moving the enactment from +2.5 to +8.5. I deliberation this is excessively overmuch to inquire of Kansas City's defense. They conscionable played a terrific crippled against Buffalo and present person to crook astir and question to a nonconference hostile who is precise hard to crippled program for. Look for large games from some Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk against a lousy Chiefs secondary that has been torched by bully receivers each year. Take enactment that San Francisco is 6-1 ATS implicit its past 7 games erstwhile coming disconnected a loss. Kyle Shanahan arsenic a 'dog is ever preferred implicit Kyle Shanahan arsenic a favorite.
Fulghum: I thin to the nether 48.5 successful this game. San Francisco volition person the payment of its location assemblage and volition person a amended accidental astatine controlling crippled publication and tempo than if this crippled was astatine Kansas City. Even though the 49ers are dealing with large wounded issues connected defense, the Chiefs are little equipped this twelvemonth successful presumption of violative unit to marque teams wage for that. I expect Shanahan to situation his squad to bounce backmost aft the embarrassing nonaccomplishment against Atlanta, truthful I expect a typically physical, pugnacious 49ers crippled environment, which guides maine to the under.
Snellings: I'm rolling with the Chiefs -2.5. On the whole, they're conscionable a amended squad that's apt not successful the champion of moods aft losing to their large rival past week. Then there's the myriad of 49ers injuries, peculiarly connected defense, that makes them much susceptible to Mahomes and crew. Finally, the Falcons gave a session connected however to exploit the 49ers' defence with the powerfulness tally game. The Chiefs don't typically bash that, but they've got runners that tin determination with powerfulness wrong ... peculiarly against a 49ers beforehand that volition beryllium loosened arsenic they effort to contend with the menace of Mahomes' arm.
The New York Giants are 3-point underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars this week contempt being 5-1 against the spread. What are your thoughts connected the broadside and full (42) for this game, and who bash you like?
Schatz: I've been burned by the Giants each season; this is the squad I was the astir incorrect astir successful the preseason. So I'm staying distant from the dispersed successful this one, but I truly similar going with implicit 42. Jacksonville's discourtesy has been much accordant than its defense, which has a bully standing chiefly built connected the 24-0 stomping of Indianapolis backmost successful Week 2. The Giants fertile 30th successful antiaircraft DVOA, portion their discourtesy is 13th ... and has been flying precocious the past mates of weeks. The Giants were the No. 2 walk discourtesy by DVOA successful Weeks 4-6! I deliberation we're going to spot much scoring than expected successful this game.
Fulghum: The 5-1 Giants are 3-point 'dogs against a 2-4 Jacksonville team? Does it not look similar the books are daring you to instrumentality the G-Men? When I consciousness that, I spell the different way. Strip distant the records and the metrics archer you the Jaguars are a vastly superior team. They person a monolithic vantage astatine QB. Their discourtesy is 11th successful the league successful yards per play; the Giants' discourtesy is 22nd. The Jags' defence is ninth successful the league successful yards per play allowed; the Giants' defence ranks 23rd successful that metric. The Giants person been a large communicative and I wouldn't beryllium amazed if they bargain yet different game, but I'm taking the location favourite here. Jaguars -3.
Marks: The incorrect squad is favored here, and no, I'm not drinking the bluish Kool-Aid. Brian Daboll and Wink Martingdale person Big Blue rolling. Offensively, Saquon Barkley (140 touches this season) should instrumentality vantage of the Jags' mediocre defence against moving backs successful the passing game. I expect the Giants to stack the container and enactment the crippled successful Trevor Lawrence's hands, wherever Wink's defence schemes volition unit astatine slightest 2 INTs this game.
Snellings: I'm riding with the Giants to screen connected this one, arsenic I person for the past fewer weeks. I picked them to screen against some the Ravens and the Packers due to the fact that their marque of defense-first attack with dynamic moving and conscionable capable passing to support opponents honorable has been moving successful the NFL this season. The Jets and Cooper Rush-led Cowboys person been winning utilizing this nonstop aforesaid formula. The Jaguars were palmy with this attack the archetypal mates of games but moved distant from James Robinson pounding the stone and much toward the walk crippled and Travis Etienne's explosive abilities ... and mislaid 3 consecutive games. This should beryllium an old-school, smashmouth game, and I'll instrumentality the squad that has proven it tin bash that and triumph against pugnacious competition. And the other 3 points don't hurt.
What are the 3 astir important things our analytics say?
Walder: I'll springiness you 3 takes connected sides via ESPN's Football Power Index.
Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
FPI prediction: Cowboys by 11.8
There was a clip erstwhile the FPI astir couldn't get immoderate little connected the Cowboys. Dak Prescott was injured, and the squad had disappointed successful Week 1 anyway. How the tables person turned. The discourtesy held up with Cooper Rush astatine the helm, portion the defence excelled, and present Prescott is back. Going forward, the FPI makes the Cowboys the seventh-best squad successful shot -- and that hardly seems unreasonable. It remains highly skeptical of the Lions due to the fact that of their defence and frankincense believes Dallas wins successful a blowout here.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) astatine San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
FPI prediction: Chiefs by 6.9
Let maine commencement by saying FPI's prediction is going to shorten present if Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, who some returned to signifier connected a constricted ground Wednesday, are capable to play. That would beryllium a large boost to the 49ers. But I'm definite the prediction volition stay connected the different broadside of a tract extremity from the line, and that makes it a worthwhile favourite to backmost for the FPI. Ultimately, the Chiefs are the champion discourtesy successful shot -- some successful presumption of ratio frankincense acold this play and what the FPI forecasts for the remainder of the twelvemonth -- and that's the astir invaluable property a squad tin have.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
FPI prediction: Jaguars by 7.1
The FPI bought successful hard connected the Jaguars aft their blistery commencement and truly hasn't cooled overmuch during Jacksonville's fallow agelong since. Despite losing 3 consecutive games, the Jaguars fertile successful the apical 11 successful expected points added per play connected some sides of the ball. Both teams present person a weakness successful walk protection, but the Jaguars are successful overmuch amended presumption to instrumentality advantage; they pb the league successful walk unreserved triumph rate.
What is your champion stake for Week 7?
Schatz: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 against Cleveland. Surprisingly, Football Outsiders metrics inactive person Baltimore arsenic the second-best squad successful the AFC by DVOA, up of Kansas City. Cleveland is lone 21st successful DVOA, and worse, it is 31st connected defense. The Ravens volition beryllium capable to tally connected the Browns with impunity. Obviously, the occupation with the Ravens has been giving up large fourth-quarter leads. But arsenic Bill Barnwell pointed retired successful his file trying to fig retired the No. 3 squad successful the AFC, teams that commencement the play by collapsing successful the 4th fourth don't needfully proceed to illness successful the 4th fourth the remainder of the year. The Ravens are acceptable for a dominating triumph successful which everything works good together, and I deliberation this is the week.
Fortenbaugh: Tennessee Titans -1 in the archetypal fractional implicit Indianapolis. Tennessee is astatine location and coming disconnected a bye. Additionally, the Titans fertile successful the apical 10 successful the NFL successful some first-half scoring discourtesy and first-half scoring defense. Conversely, the Colts fertile 26th oregon worse successful some first-half scoring and first-half scoring defense.
0:32
Joe Fortenbaugh explains wherefore helium likes the Titans to get an aboriginal pb against the Colts successful Week 7.
Fulghum: I'm sorry, until I spot otherwise, I'm conscionable going to support expecting Denver Broncos games to diagnostic astir 30 full points. I'm going nether the precise debased full of 38 vs. the Jets successful Week 7. With Zach Wilson astatine QB, the Jets person won 3 consecutive games with a look built connected moving the shot with Breece Hall and Michael Carter. It's precise hard to walk the shot against the Broncos' defense, particularly erstwhile they're astatine home. Then determination is Russell Wilson (if helium plays) and the Denver offense. What inspires assurance that Nathaniel Hackett and that clump tin airy up the scoreboard? I don't spot it.
Marks: Titans -2.5 vs. Colts and Titans -1 archetypal 4th (+125). Colts moving backmost Jonathan Taylor is inactive dealing with an ankle injury, and adjacent if helium does suit up helium volition not beryllium 100%. The Titans held Taylor to little than 50 yards successful Week 4, beating the Colts 24-17. The Titans are coming disconnected the bye, person Derrick Henry with caller legs and person the champion touchdown percent offensively successful the reddish zone. Mike Vrabel is 8-0 consecutive up and against the dispersed disconnected 8 days of rest. I love the Titans -1 successful the archetypal quarter. Tennessee OC Todd Downey has scored an opening thrust TD successful 4 of 5 games and is simply a creator of 1 of the champion scripted crippled plans successful the league. The Colts fertile 28th successful the league successful points scored successful the archetypal quarter.
0:28
Doug Kezirian considers the Jets show truthful acold this season, and doesn't deliberation the Broncos person what it takes to win.
Snellings: I'm going New York Jets +1.5 implicit the Broncos. Both New York teams are underdogs, contempt having played importantly amended than their opponents implicit the play and past fewer weeks. The Jets look to person recovered a blueprint that works, overmuch similar the Giants, relying connected their defence and moving crippled to power the action. The Broncos' defence has been wonderful, but their discourtesy has been nonexistent. I'll instrumentality the Jets to proceed their march toward respectability arsenic the Broncos support trying to fig retired their way forward.
Moody: Atlanta Falcons +6.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Falcons are underdogs for the seventh consecutive week and are the lone unbeaten squad successful the NFL against the dispersed astatine 6-0. They person 1 of the astir effectual rushing offenses successful the league, averaging 33.7 attempts (2nd) and 165.2 yards per crippled (3rd). Atlanta volition trial a struggling Bengals tally defence that has allowed 156 rushing yards per crippled implicit the past fewer weeks. This matchup volition beryllium person than radical think.
What is your favourite subordinate prop?
Fulghum: Josh Jacobs implicit 81.5 rushing yards. Jacobs is making maine look foolish for fading his play outlook this year. He has been perfectly incredible. Josh McDaniels is feeding him the stone successful some the tally crippled (91 attempts for 490 yards this season) and passing crippled (17 receptions for 129 yards). He has caught astatine slightest 5 passes successful each of his past 3 games. The matchup and crippled situation are astir arsenic bully arsenic it gets. Houston is allowing the astir phantasy points to opposing RBs successful the NFL mostly due to the fact that they're allowing 164.8 unreserved yards per game.
Walder: Noah Fant implicit 2.5 receptions (-167). Sure, laying -167 isn't the astir fun mode to stake a prop, but Fant's a worth adjacent astatine this price. Fant has a 13% people stock this season, and if we instrumentality Geno Smith's passing attempts enactment (34.5) and multiply by .13 we get an expected 4.5 targets for Fant. He has caught 70% of his passes successful his vocation but 83% this year, truthful conscionable looking astatine his averages unsocial we're looking astatine determination adjacent to 3.5 expected receptions. But Fant is besides coming disconnected a seven-target game. When modeling retired people stock I recovered that the past crippled does transportation further signal, which is portion of wherefore I forecast a 15.6% people stock for Fant connected Sunday. Given each that, I deliberation this is simply a reasonably harmless over, adjacent astatine the price.
Moody: Austin Ekeler implicit 60.5 rushing yards. Ekeler has averaged 58.2 rushing yards connected 12.5 attempts per game. It would beryllium omniscient for the Chargers to person him much progressive connected the ground. The Seahawks defence has allowed the 2nd astir rushing yards per crippled this season(165.8) and determination is nary uncertainty that Ekeler should person a monster game.
English (US)