6:48 AM ET
David PurdumESPN Staff Writer
- Joined ESPN successful 2014
- Journalist covering gambling manufacture since 2008
It's been decades since the NBA has been this competitory -- astatine the apical and bottommost of the league.
The play tips disconnected Tuesday with nary statement rubric favorite. Depending connected what sportsbook you look at, the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks oregon Los Angeles Clippers are the favorites to triumph the championship. None of them person likelihood amended than 5-1. According to ESPN Stats and Information, it's the archetypal clip successful 35 years that the preseason favourite has had likelihood this long.
The contention astatine the bottommost is arsenic arsenic competitive. Five teams -- the Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz-have season-win totals of little than 25. That's the astir successful immoderate 82-game play successful the past 20 years, according to sports betting archive SportsOddsHistory.com.
Each of the bottommost 5 team's rubric odds, which are arsenic agelong arsenic 2,000-1 astatine immoderate sportsbooks, bespeak a amended accidental astatine earning a lottery prime and a changeable astatine coveted imaginable Victor Wembanyama than winning a championship. Spurs manager Gregg Popovich has characterized his team's rubric chances arsenic "not likely," and the Jazz's existent triumph full of 23.5 astatine Caesars Sports is 25.5 less wins than they won past season. Utah traded distant stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert successful the offseason.
Bookmakers and bettors present person to gauge conscionable however atrocious these teams volition be.
"A communal misnomer with tanking successful the NBA is that each aspects of the team, including the players, volition effort to suffer connected purpose. This is perfectly not the case," Sam Garriock, trading manager for PointsBet, told ESPN. "It is purely driven by the beforehand bureau and oftentimes the coach, who are deciding who volition beryllium held retired oregon unopen down. Because of this, we instrumentality the aforesaid attack to booking these games arsenic we would immoderate other, wherever squad ratings are a origin of idiosyncratic ratings and expected minutes played."
Garriock noted, however, that tanking teams person a bigger interaction connected in-play wagering and "will cough up leads astatine greater rates than emblematic double-digit dogs."
Over the past 3 seasons, the teams that ended with 5 worst records during the regular play covered the dispersed successful astir 45.7% of games, excluding pushes.
NBA Notable Bets Season Preview
Most bets to triumph the NBA rubric astatine Caesars Sportsbook
1. Warriors
2. Celtics
3. Lakers
Fewest bets to triumph the NBA rubric astatine Caesars Sportsbook
1. Hornets
2. Wizards
3. Pacers
• The Los Angeles Lakers (27-1) person attracted doubly arsenic overmuch wealth wagered arsenic immoderate different squad to triumph the NBA rubric astatine FanDuel.
• More bets person been placed connected the Denver Nuggets (20-1) to triumph the title than immoderate different squad astatine PointsBet.
Three largest NBA rubric bets reported by Caesars Sportsbook
• $50,000 connected Warriors (+550) to triumph a nett $275,000
• $10,000 connected Lakers (+2,200) to triumph a nett $220,000
• $6,000 connected Celtics (+600) to triumph a nett $36,000
Doncic racking up MVP bets
• Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic is the statement favourite to triumph MVP this play astatine sportsbooks. Doncic has attracted 3 times arsenic overmuch wealth arsenic immoderate different subordinate connected the committee astatine Caesars Sportsbook.
NBA oddsmaker's astonishment team
• "I'm precocious connected Sacramento," Jeff Sherman, a respected Las Vegas bookmaker who oversees NBA likelihood for the SuperBook, said.
"I played them implicit 32.5 wins. I conscionable deliberation the Kings with their personnel, the escaped bureau moves and draught prime ... I similar Keegan Murray a batch ... that they're going to beryllium successful each crippled each night, whether it's against the apical teams oregon the bottommost teams."
Pop's betting advice
• Popovich gave bettors immoderate preseason proposal past month: "I astir apt shouldn't accidental this, but I'll accidental it anyway," Popovich told reporters during a Sept. 26 property conference. "Nobody present should spell to Vegas with thought of betting connected america to triumph the championship.
"And I cognize idiosyncratic is going to say, 'Gosh, what a Debbie downer. There's a chance. What if they enactment truly hard?' It's astir apt not going to happen."
Oddsmakers hold with Popovich and person the Spurs listed arsenic agelong arsenic 2,000-1 to triumph the title, but a prime fewer bettors didn't instrumentality the seasoned coach's advice. Sherman said the SuperBook has a "few 100 dollars' worthy of tickets" connected the Spurs to triumph the championship, and astatine Caesars Sportsbook, San Antonio attracted much bets to triumph the rubric than the Trail Blazers, Pistons, Jazz, Rockets, Magic, Pacers, Wizards and Hornets.
The Spurs' season-win full is 22.5, the lowest of immoderate squad astatine BetMGM sportsbooks, wherever 80% of the wealth stake connected San Antonio's wins is connected the under.
Rockets substance betting interest
• More wealth has been stake connected the nether connected the Rockets' season-win full than has been stake connected immoderate different NBA futures offering astatine PointsBet. The Rockets opened astatine 27.5 and person been stake down to 23.5. Approximately 95% of the wealth stake connected Houston's triumph full is connected the under, with the bulk of it placed astatine nether 27.5.
The second-most heavy stake futures stake astatine PointsBet? The Pelicans' implicit connected their season-win total, which opened astatine 43.5 and has been stake up to 44.5.
• In PointsBet's yes/no likelihood to marque the playoffs, the Pistons person attracted the astir Yes bets astatine +700. There person been nary bets connected them to miss the playoffs astatine -2,000.
Player props
Betting connected idiosyncratic performances-over/under connected points scored oregon rebounds, for example-continue to go an progressively fashionable mode to stake connected the NBA. Bettors often physique multi-leg parlays connected subordinate props from the aforesaid game, wagering connected respective subordinate performances oregon in-game events (team to triumph archetypal quarter, for example) astatine agelong odds. In general, astir sportsbooks necessitate to person playing clip for bets to beryllium valid.
Here is an overview of the NBA's subordinate resting and injury reporting policies.
NBA's resting policy
• Teams are prohibited from resting steadfast players for "high-profile, nationally-televise" games.
• Teams should not remainder aggregate steadfast players for the aforesaid game.
• Teams should not remainder steadfast players connected the road, "absent antithetic circumstances."
NBA's wounded reporting policy
• Teams are required to designate information presumption of players-out, questionable, available-- by 5 p.m. (local time) connected the time earlier a game, but connected the 2nd time of back-to-back games. Designations indispensable beryllium made by 1 p.m. connected the 2nd time of back-to-back games.
• Injury reports are posted here connected the NBA's website. It is not uncommon for wounded statuses to interruption successful the media anterior to being posted connected the league's website. The presumption of players considered questionable oregon game-time decisions are often decided upon during pregame shootarounds. It is not antithetic to spot wounded accusation deed the betting market, causing lines and totals to move, earlier it reaches the nationalist sphere.
• Teams indispensable update a player's information presumption instantly erstwhile a last determination is made connected the player's availability if their information presumption changes.
Notable vocation highs/lows scoring vs. teams [average points scored per team]
High: Cavaliers - 29.6; Celtics - 28.8; Bucks - 28.7
Low: Pistons - 23.9; Clippers - 24.0; Rockets 25.2
High: Clippers - 32.4; Suns - 31.6; Lakers - 30.4
Low: Grizzlies - 13.3;Raptors - 21.3; Nuggets - 21.3
Luka Doncic
High: Pistons - 32.4; Clippers - 31.4; Wizards - 30.6;
Low: Heat - 20.8; Timberwolves - 22.2; 76ers - 22.3
Steph Curry
High: Wizards - 28.6; Trailblazers - 27.7; Raptors - 26.7
Low: Bucks - 20.0; Lakers - 21.0; Spurs - 21.5
High: Spurs - 27.4; Lakers - 25.6; Trailblazers - 25.6
Low: Heat - 15.4; Thunder - 16.5; Kings - 17.3
NBA betting stats of note
• Favorites person covered the dispersed into 50.2% games, excluding pushes, implicit the past 3 regular seasons.
• 51.0% of games person gone nether the total, excluding pushers, successful the past 3 regular seasons.
• Road teams person covered the dispersed successful 51.3% of games, excluding pushers, implicit the past 3 regular seasons.
Top 3 teams against the dispersed astatine home
[last 3 regular seasons]
Hawks 59.5%
Grizzlies 58.5%
Warriors 55.0%
Worst 3 teams against the dispersed astatine home: [last 3 regular seasons]
Rockets 37.2%
Magic 37.5%
Nuggets 42.1%
• Games averaged a three-year debased 221.2 points past regular season.
• The mean borderline of triumph past play was 12.4 points, a three-year high.
Coaching ATS stats of note
Best coaches against the dispersed connected 0 days rest
Tom Thibodeau 56.7%
Dwayne Casey 54.2%
Tyronn Lue 53.6%
Worst coaches against the dispersed connected 0 days rest
J.B. Bickerstaff 39.0%
Steve Clifford 42.6%
Mike Brown 45.4%
Best coaches against the dispersed successful October/November games (minimum 50 games)
Steve Kerr 54.7%
Dwayne Casey 54.0%
Rick Carlisle 53.5%
Worst coaches against the dispersed successful October/November games (minimum 50 games)
Tyronn Lue 40.3%
Tom Thibodeau 45.1%
Doc Rivers 45.6%
Coaches with highest percent of "OVERS" (minimum 100 games)
Chris Finch 59.3%
Steve Nash 52.6%
Nick Nurse 52.3%
Coaches with highest percent of "UNDERS" (minimum 100 games)
Steve Kerr 54.1%
Billy Donovan 53.6%
Tom Thibodeau 53.5%
*ESPN Stats and Information researcher Nick Mazone contributed to this article.
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