Some mightiness reason the NFL Offensive Player of the Year grant should exclude quarterbacks since the apical QB astir ever is named MVP.
The past backmost to triumph NFL Offensive Player of the Year was the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes successful 2018. He besides won MVP that season. And the 3 QBs who won OPOY erstwhile to Mahomes -- Matt Ryan successful 2016, Cam Newton successful 2015 and Peyton Manning successful 2013 -- besides doubled up with MVP honors.
Could that hap again this year? According to Draft Kings, Mahomes is the favourite to triumph MVP, and he's besides the No. 4 betting favourite to triumph OPOY.
But the contention is choky for Offensive Player of the Year. The existent favourite is Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill, who is connected gait to situation Calvin Johnson's NFL grounds of 1,964 receiving yards, acceptable successful 2012, though Hill benefits from having 1 other regular-season game.
Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson and Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts are the adjacent betting favorites, followed by Mahomes and Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry rounding retired the apical five.
Will this beryllium the 4th twelvemonth successful a enactment a non-QB wins OPOY, pursuing Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp past year, Henry successful 2020 and New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas successful 2019?
The AP tweaked the voting this twelvemonth for MVP, OPOY and different awards, arsenic voters volition fertile their top-five picks, though it's not wide however that volition impact the outcome.
NFL Nation reporters covering the apical 10 betting favorites, arsenic posted by DraftKings Sportsbook connected Friday evening, interruption down each player's chances, and a sheet of ESPN analysts -- Matt Bowen, Seth Walder and Field Yates -- predicts the winners.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Current odds: +250
Why he's a beardown candidate: Through 9 games, Hill was connected gait to go the archetypal subordinate to apical 2,000 receiving yards. He's fallen abbreviated of that gait aft a quiescent Week 10, but he's inactive successful the moving to interruption Calvin Johnson's grounds of 1,964 receiving yards acceptable successful 2012. Hill has been the centerpiece of the NFL's apical passing offense.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: The Dolphins play respective stout defenses during their last stretch, including the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots and New York Jets. Hill has been fundamentally matchup-proof, signaling astatine slightest 70 receiving yards oregon a touchdown successful each but 2 games -- against the Bills and Jets. Falling abbreviated is not wholly implausible considering Miami's opponents and the prime of Hill's contention for the award. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Current odds: +275
Why he's a beardown candidate: New manager Kevin O'Connell runs his discourtesy done Jefferson, and arsenic a effect Jefferson has elevated his show adjacent beyond the record-setting gait helium acceptable during his archetypal 2 seasons. He's spent this play ranking among the astir productive violative players successful the league. Through Week 10, helium ranked 2nd successful receiving yards and 4th successful receptions. After 9 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown successful Thursday night's triumph implicit the Patriots, Jefferson has 1,232 yards and 5 TDs connected 81 receptions. He has besides been exceptionally durable, and done Week 11 helium ranked 2nd successful the NFL successful routes run, down the Indianapolis Colts' Michael Pittman Jr. Jefferson's fig present stands astatine 437 aft Thursday night.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: For each of his targets, routes tally and receptions, Jefferson hasn't been arsenic large of a menace successful the extremity portion arsenic you would anticipation for an OPOY. After Week 11, 18 NFL players had caught much touchdowns than him. Following Thursday night's game, his full for the play is six touchdowns -- 5 by walk and 1 arsenic a runner. That's not an insult of Jefferson's performance, and his scoring has been astir adjacent with that of the Dolphins' Hill, among others, but it makes his résumé for the grant little complete. -- Kevin Seifert
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Current odds: +550
Why he's a beardown candidate: Hurts is the centerpiece of an discourtesy that ranks 4th successful points per crippled (25.6) and 5th successful full yards (370.6). His squad is 9-1. He continues to get it done connected the crushed -- helium is 4th successful the NFL successful rushing touchdowns with 8 -- and has taken large strides guardant successful the passing game. Hurts is sixth successful completion complaint (68.3%), 2nd successful yards per effort (8.3) and 5th successful QBR (65.0). In different words, helium is doing it all.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: Passing stats look to transportation the astir value successful these types of evaluations. If that proves true, Mahomes (28 touchdowns passes, 327 passing yards per game) volition clasp a chiseled borderline implicit Hurts (15 touchdown passes, 241 passing yards per game). And players similar Jefferson, Hill and Mahomes are much established successful the league, which could beryllium different vantage successful garnering votes. But erstwhile it comes to wide production, workload and the benefits of said enactment -- the Eagles person the champion grounds successful shot -- it's hard to reason against Hurts. -- Tim McManus
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Current odds: +800
Why he's a beardown candidate: The stats are eye-popping -- Mahomes is connected gait for 5,550 yards and 48 touchdowns -- but they don't archer the full story. Mahomes has recovered ways to assistance the Chiefs adjacent successful games erstwhile his stats aren't to OPOY levels. For instance, Mahomes whitethorn person been astatine his champion successful a Week 9 triumph implicit the Titans. He had conscionable 1 TD and besides threw an interception. But with the moving crippled floundering, helium was asked to not lone propulsion 68 passes but scramble retired of perchance antagonistic situations respective times to marque large plays by moving the ball. He coiled up starring the Chiefs to an overtime win.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: The Chiefs had a accidental to salvage each of their 2 losses this play with a late-game score. Each last thrust ended connected a Mahomes interception. The Chiefs were successful desperation mode successful each of these situations, truthful Mahomes needed to unit immoderate throws, but the plays inactive spell connected his record. -- Adam Teicher
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Field Yates says Derrick Henry has reasserted himself arsenic 1 of the champion players successful each of phantasy football.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Current odds: +1500
Why he's a beardown candidate: Henry is backmost astatine the apical of the NFL's rushing database with 1,010 yards and is presently the lone moving backmost who has gained 1,000 yards connected the ground. Opposing defenses absorption connected trying to halt Henry with loaded boxes, yet helium inactive manages to enactment up awesome numbers, including 10 TDs. The stacked boxes make one-on-one matchups connected the extracurricular and unfastened things up for the play-action passing game. As Titans manager Mike Vrabel said, "The quality betwixt america and the remainder of the league is we person Derrick Henry."
Why helium mightiness autumn short: NFL awards are sometimes slanted toward quarterbacks and wide receivers. Henry's excellence is thing that tin beryllium undervalued due to the fact that of however the moving backmost presumption is viewed. Mix successful the information that the Titans don't gain galore benignant points with their wins and you person the look for Henry being overlooked. -- Turron Davenport
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Current odds: +1500
Why he's a beardown candidate: Diggs has acceptable a assortment of Bills and league records already this year. The wide receiver became 1 of the archetypal 3 successful the league to apical 1,000 receiving yards this season. He's the lone subordinate successful the league with 1,000-plus receiving yards and much than 5 receiving touchdowns. Quarterback Josh Allen has targeted him 117 times, portion the adjacent closest Bills receiver (Gabe Davis) has been targeted astir fractional arsenic overmuch (60). There are stats that can't bespeak conscionable however bully Diggs has been connected the tract -- from an astonishing one-handed drawback vs. the Vikings to his route-running abilities -- but his relation successful this discourtesy and helping Allen retired of pugnacious situations are crucial.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: The Bills' discourtesy hasn't been perfect, successful portion owed to a midseason conflict to support the portion balanced and immoderate miscues during a three-game agelong coming disconnected the bye. In part, Diggs' ain consistency could wounded him here. Yes, helium is connected gait for a career-best season, but large seasons aren't caller for him. He has 5 consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus receiving yards, presently the longest progressive streak successful the NFL. Diggs besides has a beauteous bully backmost successful Allen and is connected a squad that came into the twelvemonth with precocious expectations, which could wounded his chances adjacent successful a vocation year. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Current odds: +1600
Why he's a beardown candidate: Kelce is going places that neither helium nor immoderate choky extremity person gone before. He is connected gait for 117 catches, 1,450 yards and 19 touchdowns, which would each beryllium records for players astatine his position. Kelce delivered erstwhile the Chiefs needed him the most. He caught 4 touchdown passes successful a one-point triumph implicit the Raiders successful Week 5, and three, including the game-winner successful the last minute, successful Week 11 against the Chargers.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: Kelce whitethorn not pull galore votes simply due to the fact that helium plays connected the aforesaid squad arsenic different beardown campaigner for OPOY successful Mahomes. While Kelce does pb the league successful receiving TDs (11), he's tied for 5th successful catches (69) and is seventh successful yards (855). -- Teicher
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Current odds: +2000
Why he's a beardown candidate: Jackson remains 1 of the astir unsafe dual threats successful the game. He is 1 of 2 players to fertile successful the apical 15 successful some touchdown passes (16) and rushing yards (666) this play (Chicago Bears backmost Justin Fields is the other). The champion lawsuit for Jackson: He has kept Baltimore among the highest-scoring teams successful the league contempt each of the injuries to his supporting cast. The Ravens fertile ninth successful the NFL successful scoring contempt not having 1 crippled this play erstwhile their Pro Bowl near tackle (Ronnie Stanley), No. 1 moving backmost (J.K. Dobbins) and No. 1 wide receiver (Rashod Bateman) each started together.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: Lack of accordant playmaking wide receivers successful the passing game. With Bateman retired for the twelvemonth with a ft injury, Jackson is near with 1 of the astir unproven radical of wideouts successful Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duvernay and James Proche II. This is simply a large crushed wherefore Jackson has been held to 210 oregon less yards passing successful six of his past 7 games. It's a situation for Jackson to agelong the field. He has totaled 1,977 yards passing, which is less than Houston's Davis Mills (2,144). His accumulation arsenic a passer is trending downward. -- Jamison Hensley
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Current odds: +2500
Why he's a beardown candidate: At times this year, Allen has been the Bills' full offense, a portion 2nd successful the NFL successful points scored per crippled (28.1). Allen is the team's starring rusher with 561 yards and has the astir rushing touchdowns connected the squad with five. When Allen is connected point, it's hard for the Bills to lose, and his ridiculous plays, some connected the crushed and done the air, person defined the Bills' season.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: After the Bills' bye successful Week 7, Allen went done a down stretch, throwing six interceptions successful 3 games, including 2 picks (and a fumble) successful the 4th fourth and overtime of the nonaccomplishment to the Vikings. His accuracy has been a occupation astatine times arsenic the discourtesy continues to enactment to instrumentality immoderate of the unit disconnected Allen and find equilibrium with the rushing attack. He completed conscionable 60.5% of his passes from Weeks 8 done 11 and had the archetypal three-game streak of his vocation with 2 oregon much interceptions successful each game. His slump successful the mediate of the play could wounded him. -- Getzenberg
Saquon Barkley, N.Y. Giants
Current odds: +2500
Why he's a beardown candidate: New York wouldn't beryllium successful the playoff contention without him. It's that simple. As violative lineman Nick Gates explained astir their philosophy, "Feed the antheral the rock!" Barkley is 2nd successful the NFL successful rushing yards with 992. And it's not similar helium has overmuch help. Barkley is facing a stacked container (8+ defenders) connected 22% of his carries. He's inactive averaging +0.7 rushing yards implicit anticipation per transportation successful those situations. Without Barkley, the Giants would beryllium a losing team.
Why helium mightiness autumn short: He's a moving backmost successful a backmost league. We cognize erstwhile it comes to these benignant of awards if there's a prime betwixt the backmost and moving back, it usually goes to the feline who touches the shot connected each play. In bid for Barkley to triumph the award, helium would request to bash thing peculiar similar unreserved for 2,000 yards oregon astatine slightest get close. That seems unlikely. His lone accidental seems to beryllium if his accumulation spikes portion the Giants propulsion a clump of upsets precocious successful the season. -- Jordan Raanan
Predictions
Bowen: Justin Jefferson -- A existent difference-maker astatine the position, Jefferson has shown the quality to instrumentality implicit games this season. He's a savvy way runner, with vertical juice, who tin triumph astatine each 3 levels of the field. Already implicit the 1,000-yard receiving people connected the year, Jefferson has logged 72 receptions successful a strategy nether Kevin O'Connell that highlights his traits.
Walder: Patrick Mahomes -- I deliberation of this grant arsenic fundamentally the champion violative player, autarkic of position. So I'm unfastened to the thought that Hill, Justin Jefferson oregon adjacent Creed Humphrey could beryllium that guy. But successful the end, I inactive deliberation it's Mahomes. In a twelvemonth erstwhile bully backmost play has been truthful hard to travel by, the region betwixt Mahomes and the mean QB is massive.
Yates: Tyreek Hill -- Even if it requires 1 other crippled to scope the mark, Hill has a existent accidental to bypass Calvin Johnson for the astir receiving yards successful a azygous play successful NFL history. He's wholly changed the complexion of the Dolphins' discourtesy -- and possibly adjacent the AFC East.
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