Oscar nominations 2023: Who's in for sure (hey, Ke Huy Quan!) and who may get snubbed - USA TODAY

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For the archetypal clip successful forever, aggregate blockbusters are really contenders to triumph the best representation Oscar. But first, they've got to get nominated.

The acheronian drama "The Banshees of Inisherin" and Steven Spielberg's autobiographical coming-of-age drama "The Fabelmans" scored large astatine the Golden Globes, portion sci-fi deed "Everything Everywhere All astatine Once" led the Screen Actors Guild battalion alongside "Banshees." However, erstwhile the tract for the 95th Academy Awards (airing March 12 connected ABC) is announced Tuesday morning, "Top Gun" and "Black Panther" sequels loom arsenic heavyweight contenders that could propulsion other spiciness into an awards play that's somewhat backmost to mean aft a mates of pandemic-plagued years.

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While everything mightiness look to beryllium falling into spot for probable nominees, that's usually conscionable erstwhile chaos is astir the corner. Let's separate the imaginable contenders from the pretenders successful the six large Oscar categories:

Blockbusters will tussle for premier spots successful the champion representation field.
It's a two-person contention successful the champion actress category and a talented trio for champion actor.
Supporting stars Angela Bassett and Ke Huy Quan are the easiest bets of all.

Best picture

The best: The producers and the directors usually cognize what's going connected earlier the remainder of america – the immense bulk of their nominees marque the Oscar cut. So expect the shoo-ins to be "Fabelmans," "Banshees," "Everything Everywhere," "Top Gun: Maverick" and "Tár," which each scored Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America nods. "Elvis," with Globe, PGA and British Academy Film Awards nominations to its credit, besides has a bully shot, arsenic does "Babylon," boasting Globe and Screen Actors Guild ensemble honors.

The rest: High-profile PGA nominees "Avatar: The Way of Water," "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" and "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery" look much primed to instrumentality the past 3 spots than the polarizing "The Whale," though don't number retired the emotion for Brendan Fraser. Other possibilities see the popular Indian enactment epic "RRR," BAFTA -leading "All Quiet connected the Western Front" and SAG-nominated "Women Talking" – they could each beryllium jockeying for a slot if "Babylon" (with its mixed reviews) oregon "Top Gun" falters.

Best actor

The best: This looks to beryllium a three-dude contention betwixt Golden Globe victors Austin Butler ("Elvis") and Colin Farrell ("Banshees") plus "Whale" prima Fraser, who scored extra awards-season momentum with his heartfelt speech aft winning the Critics Choice Award. It's harmless to accidental those guys are locks, particularly with Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA nominations.

The rest: The past 2 Oscar cycles person seen the SAG and Oscar champion histrion contingents lucifer up exactly, which is simply a boon for SAG nominees Bill Nighy ("Living") – who besides snagged a BAFTA nod – and Adam Sandler ("Hustle"). Sandler inactive doesn't person an Oscar nomination, truthful the Academy could look astatine it arsenic a vocation attaboy. But if they don't, waiting successful the wings to scoop a spot are newcomers specified arsenic BAFTA nominee Paul Mescal ("Aftersun") arsenic good as two Globe contenders, Diego Calva ("Babylon") and Jeremy Pope ("The Inspection"). Then there's Tom Cruise, the look of "Top Gun" who astir apt has a fewer voters rooting for him.

Best actress

The best: Cate Blanchett ("Tár") and Michelle Yeoh ("Everything Everywhere") tore their mode done awards play with Globe wins and SAG nominations, and that inevitable showdown is happening astatine the Oscars because, barring some multiverse mishap, they're in.

The rest: The different 3 spots are little clear-cut. Oscar victor Viola Davis ("The Woman King") has enactment unneurotic a nice resume, with SAG, Globe and BAFTA nods, and chap SAG nominees Danielle Deadwyler ("Till") and Ana de Armas ("Blonde") are besides successful the mix. Michelle Williams – who arguably would have fared amended this play arsenic a supporting contender – has a changeable acknowledgment to "Fabelmans" momentum. Also connected the extracurricular looking successful are Globe nominees Margot Robbie ("Babylon") and Olivia Colman ("Empire of Light").

Best supporting actor

The best: No 1 successful Hollywood is arsenic beloved arsenic "Everything Everywhere" star/Globe winner/SAG nominee Ke Huy Quan these days due to the fact that of his comeback communicative and wide Cinderella mojo. At slightest 1 histrion usually runs the array each twelvemonth and Quan's the apical stake of this Oscar class. Likely taking up different 3 slots: the "Banshees" duo of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan arsenic good arsenic "The Good Nurse" antagonist Eddie Redmayne, who each racked up SAG, Globe and BAFTA nominations.

The rest: For that past remaining spot – oregon possibly two, fixed that "Good Nurse" isn't precisely a large awards subordinate – SAG nominee Paul Dano is successful contention for "Fabelmans." His co-star Judd Hirsch is simply a anticipation too: The longtime Emmy-winning histrion has lone been nominated for an Oscar once, for 1980's "Ordinary People." Also lasting a accidental are Brian Tyree Henry ("Causeway"), who similar Hirsch was nominated for Critics Choice, and BAFTA nominee Micheal Ward ("Empire of Light").

Best supporting actress

The best: Angela Bassett rules Wakanda and, truthful far, the leadup to this category, which looks to beryllium the acting field most successful flux. The “Black Panther" prima took location golden from the Globes and Critics Choice Awards, positive scored SAG and BAFTA nominations. Kerry Condon ("Banshees") and Jamie Lee Curtis ("Everything Everywhere") – inactive seeking her archetypal Oscar motion aft decades successful the concern – are besides harmless bets, with each earning SAG, Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA nods.

The rest: What's near is beauteous overmuch a free-for-all with a clump of talented contenders. Curtis' co-star Stephanie Hsu snagged a SAG nom for her breakout role. Hong Chau ("The Whale") impressed the SAG and BAFTA contingents, portion Dolly de Leon ("Triangle of Sadness") and Carey Mulligan ("She Said") person Globe and BAFTA nominations successful their favor. And don't place Janelle Monáe ("Glass Onion") oregon Jessie Buckley ("Women Talking"), both Critics Choice-nominated standouts successful acclaimed ensembles.

Best director

The best: Every year, to an uncanny degree, four retired of 5 DGA nominees marque it into the category. In different words, things are looking beauteous groovy for Globe champ Spielberg, Critics Choice-winning duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert ("Everything Everywhere"), Todd Field ("Tár"), Martin McDonagh ("Banshees") and Joseph Kosinski ("Top Gun: Maverick").

The rest: So who's the unusual antheral out? Probably Kosinski, since his champion representation contender is the lone 1 without immoderate large grant wins to date. Sarah Polley ("Women Talking") could instrumentality his spot and debar an all-male tract pursuing 2 consecutive victories by pistillate filmmakers. James Cameron has a puncher's accidental acknowledgment to his "Avatar" sequel's box-office success. Baz Luhrmann ("Elvis") oregon S.S. Rajamouli ("RRR") could thrust their mode successful disconnected of the question of popularity for their films. But possibly a astonishment acheronian equine arises from the BAFTA slate, which includes Park Chan-wook ("Decision to Leave"), Edward Berger ("All Quiet connected the Western Front") and Gina Prince-Bythewood ("The Woman King").