Planning for the chaotic post-Putin world

Vladimir Putin successful powerfulness has brutalized millions arsenic helium careens into tyranny. 

Yet Vladimir Putin retired of powerfulness volition bring its ain marque of chaos: a Shakespearean knife-fight for power; unleashed determination leaders; a atomic arsenal up for grabs.

For now, fewer privation to publically speech astir that post-Putin world, wary of the cognition of meddling successful home politics. But privately, occidental countries and analysts are plotting the scenarios that could unfold erstwhile Putin inevitably departs — and however Ukraine’s allies should react.

“I volition beryllium cautious speculating excessively overmuch astir the home governmental concern successful Russia,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said past week erstwhile asked however the confederation was preparing for the anticipation of the Russian person leaving office. 

“Regardless of what antithetic analyses whitethorn indicate, I deliberation what we request to bash astatine NATO is to beryllium prepared for each eventualities and erstwhile it comes to Ukraine, beryllium prepared to proceed to enactment them,” helium said. 

One consensus: It won’t beryllium a cleanable transition, posing myriad dilemmas that could strain Western allies. How overmuch tin — and should — they power the succession process? What should they bash if a Russian republic breaks away? What narration should they prosecute with Putin’s successor?

“We should enactment speech immoderate illusions that what happens adjacent instantly is democracy,” said Laurie Bristow, a erstwhile British ambassador to Russia. 

“What I deliberation happens next,” helium added, “is astir apt a clip of troubles.” 

An explosive succession fight 

For now, Putin is successful a harmless position. He inactive controls the authorities apparatus, and the subject is executing his murderous orders successful Ukraine. 

But the Russian leader’s flailing penetration of Ukraine has diminished his presumption astatine location and deepened uncertainties implicit who would instrumentality over, and how. 

“To negociate a unchangeable succession erstwhile the clip comes — which volition successful Putin’s caput beryllium a clip of his choosing — past you request a precocious grade of elite consensus,” said Bristow, who served arsenic the United Kingdom’s envoy successful Moscow from 2016 until 2020. 

“What they’ve done present is interruption that consensus,” helium said, noting determination is present much vying for powerfulness wrong the Kremlin. 

That warring could crook bloody erstwhile the Kremlin’s apical occupation yet opens up. 

“This could get precise Shakespearean, deliberation King Lear, oregon [the] Roman Empire, similar I, Claudius, oregon Games of Thrones, precise quickly,” said William Alberque, a erstwhile manager of NATO’s arms power center. 

Alexander Vershbow, a erstwhile elder U.S. and NATO official, said the astir apt script was inactive a “smooth transition” wrong Putin’s existent interior ellipse — but helium conceded that toppling tyrants tin beget turmoil. “There could beryllium interior instability,” helium said, “and things go precise unpredictable successful authoritarian systems, successful personalistic dictatorships.”

Bristow, the erstwhile British ambassador, warned Western powers to enactment retired of specified succession fights: “I deliberation we person to admit the limits of our quality to power these outcomes.”

Although, the ex-envoy conceded, “we surely person an involvement successful the outcome.”

Nukes = power

Russia is sitting connected the world’s largest stockpile of atomic weapons, featuring thousands of warheads that tin each inflict monolithic destruction, decease and trauma connected a population.

The arsenal has agelong been a root of Russian spot connected the satellite signifier and a ascendant portion of its planetary representation — for years, the anticipation of a Kremlin atomic onslaught dominated the nationalist imaginativeness successful the U.S. and elsewhere. 

In a play of enactment uncertainty, that arsenal could go a coveted awesome of power. That would enactment absorption connected the Russian military’s atomic protector, the 12th Main Directorate, oregon GUMO. 

“There’s a existent possibility,” said Alberque, “that determination would beryllium deadly contention — contention to see radical trying to rally antithetic parts of the subject — peculiarly the 12th GUMO that controls Russia’s atomic arsenal.”

Rogue regions

Put simply, Russia is the largest state successful the world, stretching crossed 11 clip zones and climbing from the Caucasus to the Arctic. 

While Putin whitethorn look to clasp a despotic grip connected that full expanse, determination are a fig of Russian republics with much tenuous connections to Moscow — and immoderate with ambitious governmental figures. A powerfulness vacuum successful a faraway superior could contiguous an opening for section leaders to prehend much control.

While astir analysts judge the Russian Federation would mostly clasp unneurotic done a conflict for Kremlin control, they admit the Russian authorities has agelong feared fragmentation. 

In the lawsuit of specified factional fighting, each eyes volition beryllium connected Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal caput of the Chechen Republic. 

“Does helium propulsion his value down a competing faction? Or does helium say, ‘I’m bully with a decennary of monolithic Russian subsidies — present let’s interruption off, and I tin astir apt regularisation Chechnya and Dagestan; I tin person my ain empire here’?” said Alberque, present a manager astatine the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Moscow’s penetration of Ukraine could besides travel backmost to haunt the Kremlin.

Vershbow, a erstwhile American ambassador to Russia, said determination is simply a “low probability” of disintegration but noted that “ironically” Putin’s annexation of areas successful eastbound Ukraine “could beryllium cited arsenic a precedent by separatist leaders wrong the Russian Federation, to accidental ‘borders are present up for grabs’.”

A instrumentality of the reset debate

Once a caller enactment squad is successful place, that’s erstwhile the astir bedeviling argumentation debates volition statesman for Western governments.  

With Putin disconnected the governmental stage, immoderate officials — successful peculiar successful occidental Europe — whitethorn reason determination is an accidental to forge a caller narration with Moscow. 

The U.S. infamously offered Russia a symbolic “reset” fastener astatine the commencement of Barack Obama’s presidency, lone to spot relations deteriorate further. And Germany for years preached the gospel of economical engagement with Russia, lone to state a historical “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, aft Moscow’s invasion.

With caller enactment successful the Kremlin, Germany whitethorn accidental “oh, Zeitenwende, ne'er mind. Let’s propulsion the U.S. to bash different reset with the caller Russian leader,” Alberque said. 

Inevitably, NATO’s eastbound helping would deplore specified overtures. They’d reason “Russia ne'er changes,” Alberque said, and thin connected allies to not recede from the much assertive NATO stance adopted since the warfare began.

Polish Minister for National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak made precisely that constituent to POLITICO.

“Russia successful a mentation with Tsar arsenic a person was the aforesaid similar Russia successful a mentation with a secretary-general of Communist enactment arsenic a leader, and present it’s the aforesaid arsenic Vladimir Putin arsenic a leader,” helium said. 

“What is important from our perspective,” helium added, “is to isolate Russia.”

For now, determination is nary expected Putin successor. But officials accidental they are expecting a authorities with a akin ideology — oregon 1 adjacent much extreme. 

Jānis Garisons, a Latvian authorities secretary, pointed retired that Putin has already jailed critics — and imaginable aboriginal leaders — like Alexei Navalny, and lone much hardliners connected the extracurricular are acceptable to measurement in. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen astatine the Bocharov Ruchei authorities residence | Pool photograph by Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images

“The lone radical who knock him” and not successful situation “are from the close wing,” Garisons said. 

“We should not autumn unfortunate to a junta oregon immoderate radical of radical coming guardant saying that they privation a reset,” said Ben Hodges, erstwhile commandant of U.S. Army Europe, “if it’s inactive the same.” 

One large quality this clip astir is that Europe is present little economically babelike connected Moscow, reducing a cardinal inducement to re-engage.

“We person gone a agelong mode to halt buying from Russia,” said a elder EU diplomat, who spoke connected information of anonymity. “That would permission lone the issues of nukes — but that volition mostly beryllium with the Americans.” 

Another awesome Western leaders tin look for is whether a Putin successor cooperates with planetary organizations seeking to prosecute Russian warfare crimes successful Ukraine — a possibility, of course, that seems remote.

“Only a Russia determined to cooperate, would not correspond a menace to Europe,” said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský.

Yet for each the assumptions that a cooperative Russia is acold off, respective existent and erstwhile officials cautioned that occidental governments indispensable harvester deterrence with a longer-term effort to prosecute Russian civilian society. 

The Western alliance, said Bristow, indispensable see “how we scope retired to Russian nine beyond the Kremlin, to the adjacent procreation of Russian politicians, thinkers, intellectuals, teachers, businesspeople, to benignant of spell retired an alternate imaginativeness to the 1 they’ve got.” 

“My sense,” helium added, “is that rather a batch of radical successful Russia would similar to bash that.” 

Paul McLeary contributed reporting